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What's slowing down the AI buildout

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Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hardly unlimited. And not if plants can't get cooling water because of drought. https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/25/france-takes-nuclear-rea...

The sun provides unlimited energy for billions of years, significantly cheaper and without the hypothetical risk of turning huge areas uninhabitable or causing incidents with damage in the trillions.

Until you have bad weather, yeah. If you have literally any sources at all that modern(!!!) nuclear reactors are unsafe (so, those that would be built today), or less safe, than any other kind of power production, Id love to see it.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The sun provides unlimited energy for billions of years, significantly cheaper and without the hypothetical risk of turning huge areas uninhabitable or causing incidents with damage in the trillions.

Until you have bad weather, yeah. If you have literally any sources at all that modern(!!!) nuclear reactors are unsafe (so, those that would be built today), or less safe, than any other kind of power production, Id love to see it.

At the time of planning of Chernobyl and Fukushima reactors, were the people responsible aware that their design was in fact not safe? If no, why should it be different today?

And bad weather usually goes along with with significantly increased power generation from wind turbines. Together with battery storage getting cheaper and cheaper, a long term bet on nuclear seems bad both for economic and ecological reasons.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

False, just mentioned our apartment. For the ones that need upgrades, we’re talking extension-cord-level technology.

Suburbia has sprawling lots where nobody is near a receptacle and cities have concrete pads which aren't wired save for lighting. In the minority of cases in which there are any outlets at all nearby any assigned parking spot they are locked to prevent homeless camping their charging their stuff. When any spots exist the electrical system would never tolerate more than a few people plugging in at once. For instance i…

Definitely not true in California, as I already mentioned. Approx 1/3 of cars here. Slow charging is not intensive and if the utility needs more capacity they’ll build it. Like for data centers.

Light poles are being tapped in the neighborhood for EV and surveillance already.

The great thing about the utility market is that they don’t need your permission to invest. They’ll do it when it becomes profitable, i.e. already.

Are you the same guy who poo-pooed digital photography in 2000? Sounds like it.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How could you possibly know the cost and pollution levels of batteries not-yet invented? The pollution from a nuclear power plant is one 55-gallon barrel of waste per reactor per year, and ZERO batteries are that clean. Like, what are you even thinking here?

This ignores the pollution to make that fuel and the pollution to build the plan (both of which you are already counting on the battery side). Plus the pollution of all the backup generators that they require and must test regularly.

There is significant pollution created while digging up the rare earth materials which are needed to make solar panels, and batteries are some of the dirtiest things we make.

There is virtually zero pollution in a generator which does not typically run. The only waste is the need to occasionally change out the fuel. It’s a rounding error at worst.

This is also ignoring how much safer nuclear is than any other form of power generation, and pollution concerns are ostensibly, at least in part, about improving health and lives of humans.

Bro come on lol.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#225

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dIvV!,w_1456,c_limit... Of the items on this chart, I would say AI data centers are providing the least amount of value per % of GDP spent. And 1930s public works the highest.

"AI data centers" are so non-central and located in places so data-sparse (yet rich in cheap electricity) I consider them more likely fronts for crypto mining.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anyone reasonable is saying we should only do nuclear. The actual position is that we need a mix of both nuclear and renewables while ramping down non-renewable sources as fast as possible, because you need both intermittent cheap generation and reliable baseload that doesn't care if the wind stops blowing or clouds roll over the panels. The pricing story remains unconvincing to me. LCOE comparisons mea…

To say that paid off nuclear is profitable without subsidies and then mention France is deeply funny. Putting aside the actual subsidies, there’s the uncomfortable truth that nuclear operators are not on the hook for long tail risks and costs. The government (read us, the taxpayers) in most countries will foot the bill for decomisioning if the company goes under, and it will foot the bill for accidents. To talk about…

> To say that paid off nuclear is profitable without subsidies and then mention France is deeply funny.

Care to elaborate on what you find funny?

France's energy regulator (CRE) puts the actual cost of running its nuclear fleet at about ~€61/MWh for 2026-2028. EDF's (Électricité de France) own revenue estimate for 2026 nuclear generation is around €66/MWh. They are currently earning a profit on their power generation, the fleet pulls in over €5 billion annually just from selling the surplus to its neighbors. If that's the punchline of your joke I'm not seeing it.

French industrial electricity runs about €69/MWh vs £168/MWh in the UK, as an example.

> The government (read us, the taxpayers) in most countries will foot the bill for decomisioning

What better use is there of taxes than the running and decommissioning of power plants, nuclear or not? I'd much rather my tax money go to covering all the costs involved with nuclear, from initial construction and everything else involved than pretty much anything else most gov'ts waste their money on.

Who should be paying for it, in your mind?

> To talk about them not getting subsidies once they are paid off is to ignore the fact that no reactor would ever get built without the government providing them a guaranteed backstop.

Again, I fail to see how or why this is actually a problem. Power generation is probably the poster child for what governments should be handling and backstopping with tax money. You're also talking as if the large majority of power plants, and I mean coal, natural gas and even renewables aren't also covered by the exact same kind of government backstop.

In the US, nuclear's liability for an accident is capped around $16.3 Billion under the Price-Anderson Act, split across private insurance and an industry-funded pool.

Offshore oil liability is capped by law at $75 million (Yes, only MILLION) per incident, funded by a tiny per-barrel tax, and cleanup costs blow through that number constantly, which is why e.g. Deepwater Horizon needed a special one-off arrangement to handle at all. TVA's 2008 coal ash spill cost over a billion dollars to clean up and got passed straight onto ratepayers because TVA hit its own debt ceiling. And right now, in 2026, the EPA is actively proposing to weaken coal ash cleanup rules, meaning the backstop on coal's mess is getting worse, not better, while it's still being burned at scale.

So no, nuclear doesn't get some unique golden treatment here. Every energy source with real catastrophic tail risk gets a government backstop, because no private insurer on earth prices genuinely catastrophic low-probability events without one. The only difference is nuclear's cap is a known, bounded number attached to an industry with an extremely good actual safety record in reality, while coal's backstop is open-ended and attached to something that poisons rivers and drinking water on a rolling basis without needing a single accident to do it.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suburbia has sprawling lots where nobody is near a receptacle and cities have concrete pads which aren't wired save for lighting. In the minority of cases in which there are any outlets at all nearby any assigned parking spot they are locked to prevent homeless camping their charging their stuff. When any spots exist the electrical system would never tolerate more than a few people plugging in at once. For instance i…

Definitely not true in California, as I already mentioned. Approx 1/3 of cars here. Slow charging is not intensive and if the utility needs more capacity they’ll build it. Like for data centers. Light poles are being tapped in the neighborhood for EV and surveillance already. The great thing about the utility market is that they don’t need your permission to invest. They’ll do it when it becomes profitable, i.e. alre…

It's more like 2M out of 37M for plug-in electric and plug-in hybrid, or roughly 5%.

https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicle-registration

CA has also invested heavily in charging with 18000 fast charging stations and still only convinced a tiny minority to go electric even with the government partially buying rich kids cars.

With decreasing subsidies, sales already fell off a cliff its way less than 1 in 3 new cars and 1 in 20 existing even in the electric car capital of the US.

We need more mass transit, more telecommuting, cheaper housing in cities, more electric cars, and more charging stations especially in apartments along with more cheap electric vehicles even if they end up being made in china. We want the same thing I am just not delusional enough to believe we've already arrived.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#228
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the solar panels are pretty non-dangerous waste (cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar panels are dangerous waste, but are currently only small part of installed solar panels). Silicon tetrachloride used for silicon production is toxic and has to handled carefully. The main point is that, if Europe wants to invest more in solar power, it should also do the manufacturing in Europe and waste disposal in Europe.

Sure, I don't disagree with the ideal of onshoring more manufacturing for solar, but then the same standard should be applied to the entire supply chain of all forms of power generation. Frequently those negative externalities seem to be most often raised as a "gotcha" for solar specifically, in an attempt to rebut the clear environmental advantages. For example, nuclear power is often sold as a plant that just sits…

Because of super energy density of uranium you need to mine only small amounts of ore, per GWh. Uranium enriched is currently done by gas centrifuges, geopolitically sensitive technology. In future it could be done by laser isotope separation, much more efficient technology, but also geopolitically much more sensitive technology. (Exactly because laser isotope separation doesn't require large amounts of energy and space, it could be easier hidden). There have been demonstrated fast neutron reactors that can run on natural uranium without enrichment, can burn plutonium, but for geopolitical reason this programs have been stopped in US and US discouraged other governments from developing this technologies. With fast neutron reactors we already have enough uranium in stockpiles to power world for centuries.

Carter administration - Fast reactors and nuclear nonproliferation problem

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S245230381...

The biggest CO2 impact of nuclear energy is from the steel/concrete used to build the containment building. Because of the aircraft impact rules, nuclear containment building has to survive the impact of a fully loaded large aircraft. These buildings are the strongest non-military facilities in existence, no other civilian industrial plants (even chemical plants with very nasty stuff) have this level of protection. Personally, I think much steel/concrete could be saved by moving nuclear reactor deep underground, but this would require changes in regulation. Again, deep underground nuclear facilities, geopolitical questions...

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not true in California, as I already mentioned. Approx 1/3 of cars here. Slow charging is not intensive and if the utility needs more capacity they’ll build it. Like for data centers. Light poles are being tapped in the neighborhood for EV and surveillance already. The great thing about the utility market is that they don’t need your permission to invest. They’ll do it when it becomes profitable, i.e. alre…

It's more like 2M out of 37M for plug-in electric and plug-in hybrid, or roughly 5%. https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicle-registration CA has also invested heavily in charging with 18000 fast charging stations and still only convinced a tiny minority to go electric even with the government partially buying rich kids cars. With decreasing subsidies, sales already fell off a cliff its way less than 1 in 3 new cars and 1 in…

As mentioned, electric cars are everywhere here. Enjoy your nostalgia. I only brought the estimate down to 1/3 because I realize we’re ahead of the curve.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have microwave ovens. They’re pretty safe. Imagine something as safe as that. We can do it. But I can’t disagree that it’s more exciting to imagine terror dreams.

First: microwaves are only safe if you don't mess with them, a bunch of people get killed by tinkering with their high-voltage transformers (at least 35 US deaths from one specific usecase alone in the last decade, see https://www.woodturner.org/Woodturner/Resources/Safety-Mater... ). A big potential concern with small reactors are highly toxic radionuclides; those can be much more dangerous (with LD50 far under 1mg/…

> because there is no realistic path for nuclear reactors to compete with PV+batteries

It's not that in Northern climates, it's PV+batteries+Natural Gas turbines, because PV doesn't supply enough power for winter heating. In more tropical locations, you're correct.

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