[flagged]
Open source AI must win
221–230 of 538 posts
Re: Open source AI must win
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you think AI won’t be a factor in how we’re controlled if our rights become stripped away and we’re increasingly surveilled? Or if violence is deployed by the state against its people with broader targeting? You seem to take for granted that nothing will change except maybe the flavor of rhetoric.
Oh I definitely think it will be a factor. I don’t mean to say that it won’t. What I’m saying is that the general public is most obviously and personally impacted by their economic situation and job prospects. Joe Citizen who lives by the rules might not even notice that new Flock camera on his street, but he will notice if he’s laid off from his job.
My view is even gloomier. They won't have to coerce you, because with everything they know about you and human psychology, they will be able to manipulate you effectively enough for whatever they want.
Re: Open source AI must win
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technology is deflationary. I am holding in my hand a device that would have been a supercomputer 30 years ago. It costed me a couple of hundreds of dollars. These models and the hardware they are running on will get even more efficient. We are nowhere near the physical limits of what we can achieve.
> Technology is deflationary. Not anymore! Well, if you're like Elon and already taking down the bottle of Cuatro Comas from the high shelf, the economies of scale will continue to work in your favor. But one of the really neat things about AI is that there is no limit in sight to the scaling incentive. More compute will always get you more: more training, more inference, more parameters, more capacity to build more…
> But one of the really neat things about AI is that there is no limit in sight to the scaling incentive.
How you can be so confident? I can imagine there is some limit and with each scaling iteration gain you achieved will decrease so that further iterations would be more and more look pointless
Re: Open source AI must win
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
As I replied to a child comment - this is a nice idea that just isn't tenable in reality. AI hardware isn't just hilariously faster than consumer GPUs, it's also hilariously more power-efficient and has hilariously better connectivity. Every one of these dimensions kills the idea. The far, FAR superior power efficiency means that even if you did harness every public GPU or GPU-like device on earth, you'd end up consu…
AI hardware is for inference, not training. Training uses normal HPC crap. Superpods aren't really power efficient, it's kind of a meme, and it stems from limiting the power draw of other components by having less of them. It's more of a rounding error. > you'd end up consuming so much excess electricity it would be cheaper on net to simply take the money that would have gone to the power bill and spend it on your ow…
Bit of a doozie though, that one.
I recall getting really excited over hinton's FF foray, right before he bailed on AI as a societal direction (which, if anyone ever had the right, I suppose he does). If one squints, one can see a backprop-free base being much easier to train on geographically distributed and heterogenous hardware.
Re: Open source AI must win
#225Who is going to fund it? Training is unfathomably expensive. You have either VC funded models looking for a return on investment, or CCP funded models looking to solidify authoritarian "model Chinese society". Maybe there are some university 4B models, but I doubt those will carry far.
You have an unhealthy and unreasonable obsession with the idea of CCP models, you should get that checked.
Re: Open source AI must win
#226[flagged]
Re: Open source AI must win
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technology is deflationary. I am holding in my hand a device that would have been a supercomputer 30 years ago. It costed me a couple of hundreds of dollars. These models and the hardware they are running on will get even more efficient. We are nowhere near the physical limits of what we can achieve.
> Technology is deflationary. Not anymore! Well, if you're like Elon and already taking down the bottle of Cuatro Comas from the high shelf, the economies of scale will continue to work in your favor. But one of the really neat things about AI is that there is no limit in sight to the scaling incentive. More compute will always get you more: more training, more inference, more parameters, more capacity to build more…
> Trillion-dollar companies can easily outbid the entire consumer market
I don't think this is true. I think prices are rising at the consumer and prosumer level because that's what's required for the mass market to collectively outbid the handful of trillion-dollar companies, at least for the limited share of production they can sustainably demand. This process can continue pretty much indefinitely.
Re: Open source AI must win
#228If open source AI was better than what it is currently chasing, wouldn’t that take away the incentive for these companies to give it away for free? Training is expensive and companies will need to recoup those development costs once it stops being about jockeying for position.
Re: Open source AI must win
#229I've been contemplating a decentralized model training system for some time using volunteer machines that we all contribute. But, it is astronomically difficult. The communication speeds are untenable. And, there is the issue of data poisoning from untrusted nodes. I've almost cracked that last issue with a self-healing checkpointed rollback system that doesn't have to throw out anything that follows the corrupt datu…
Sounds like SETI@home but for AGI... SAGI@home?
Since SAGI can't be practically distributed, and it puts so many people out of work, how about moving all of the unhoused people into the nice warm data centers, and call it home@SAGI.
Or is that too close to the plot of The Matrix?
Re: Open source AI must win
#230what is Open Source AI even? to me Open Source, like Free Software, is something i can run on my own computer. any AI system that runs on a computer that i do not control is by my definition not Open Source. so how then can Open Source AI win? it can't even compete. even if we collect enough money and create a dedicated Open Source organization to build and run a community owned AI datacenter, how does that help? so…
Qwen models are actually very competitive with frontier models, and you can run them on your local computer. Gotta have a decent graphics card and by that time the current cost of the rig may not justify it over paying $100/month for cloud model but it’s all out there.
>Gotta have a decent graphics card and by that time the current cost of the rig may not justify it over paying $100/month for cloud model but it’s all out there.
Never, ever, subscribe. When you subscribe, they win. They cornered the silicon market to force you to subscribe. Don't be a sub, or at least keep your sub tendencies in the bedroom. ;^)