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Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

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Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#221

Post by jtbayly »

55555 wrote: post #40
nostrademons wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…

It barely makes sense, though? The idea is that it will surface insider information to the public. That happens only because the insider is financially incentivized to place a bet. But they will only bet if they can win money, and they can only win money if someone is taking the other side of their bet, which necessarily means someone without their insider information. In other words, prediction markets require sucke…

The public didn’t even learn the most searched term from the market. The public had a better idea it might be “d4vd” from the market, but only slightly before they learned it for real from Google.

What I can’t figure out is why this person is being charged but the companies running the bets are not.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#222

Post by root-parent »

wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

[dead]

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#223

Post by efitz »

tsimionescu wrote: post #89
efitz wrote: post #82

I’m completely failing to get outraged here. I think that the person misused Google internal information and deserves termination or other discipline, but I’m struggling to otherwise see the harm in what they did. Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market?

> Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Yes, it is both against the CFTC's regulations and against the companies' T&Cs. > Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market? That's irrelevant, the purpose of these markets is to provide fair bets for entertainment, not information.

> the purpose of these markets is to provide fair bets for entertainment

Pretty sure this statement is 100% wrong. You’re describing a gambling site. Is that how governments are treating them?

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#224

Post by mrandish »

derefr wrote: post #52
55555 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It barely makes sense, though? The idea is that it will surface insider information to the public. That happens only because the insider is financially incentivized to place a bet. But they will only bet if they can win money, and they can only win money if someone is taking the other side of their bet, which necessarily means someone without their insider information. In other words, prediction markets require sucke…

People with insider information often aren't necessarily aware they even have it. "Superforecasters" are often just "good at predicting" moves within a given vertical, because they have expertise and exposure to the trends of that vertical, and are good at making deductions and extrapolating trends. Those people make money from prediction markets just as often as people with true insider info do. And the people they'…

I think some may be using the terms "insider" and "shark" in different ways. To me:

* Insider: A person who is cheating because they actually know the answer in advance or have direct, non-public, confidential information which materially improves their odds over even domain experts. If caught, they can go to jail. Insider as in "insider trading" not just an "industry insider".

* Superforecaster: A person who has deep domain expertise and/or experience as well as strong research and estimation skills which increase their odds over a naive bettor. This may include historical data or first-hand investigation which is not commonly or easily available to others but has not been obtained illegally.

* Sucker: A person who bets despite having far less than a superforecaster's expertise, experience or knowledge. Probably over-estimates their knowledge while underestimating the degree of relevant knowledge which may be legally obtainable by others.

* Shark: Not really clear to me other than more skilled/knowledgeable than a sucker.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#225

Post by autumnstwilight »

nostrademons wrote: post #11
wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

That's sort of the point of prediction markets: they surface insider information by allowing people to profit off of it. The benefit is to people watching the prices , who can then use that information to make better decisions ahead of the answer being revealed to the public. It's not necessarily to market participants, who need to be aware of who else is trading the market and have a credible reason to believe they…

So far it seems insiders are mostly incentivized to bet on their insider information at the last possible minute, so that the market doesn't have time to adjust toward their position and lessen their profits. That doesn't leave non-insiders a lot of time to do anything useful with the information, even if it happens to be something that would benefit them to know about.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#226

Post by rldjbpin »

prediction markets have become like the "modern" version of crypto "get rich quick" mania of the nft era.

grifters gonna grift where they see an opportunity. also got the money printer turned on for some while the others resort to "chance" (fair or otherwise) to get paid.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#227

Post by kwar13 »

wyldfire wrote: post #5

Of course he should be punished but the best lesson here is for bettors. Those who wager on "prediction markets": you are betting against people who have access to more information or can influence the outcome of the wager. Don't waste your money.

that's literally how ANY market works. there's nothing special about prediction markets.

if you know NVDA's earnings before it's announced, it's no different than knowing who the most googled musician would be before it's announced.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#228

Post by caminante »

hansvm wrote: post #201
A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the second problem can be as simple as having Google organise an all-expenses-paid team activity to bait the subject into jurisdiction. This actually happens. I know that the FBI once organized an all-expenses-paid trip to a "conference in Hawaii" for certain Chinese chemists it wanted to nab. The corollary is that if you have reason to expect you're wanted by American Feds, never travel outside China, Russia, and…

And never have an emergency (accidentally, FBI-forced landing, etc) causing you to accidentally inhabit those countries either.

I thought I'd heard of this but couldn't find enough examples of this, let alone an FBI induced landing.

It appears REALLY hard to step over jurisdictions.

I did find the PLO terrorist incident from 1985. The terrorists killed an American on a cruiseship, Achille Lauro. Reagan sent a fighter jet to intercept, escort, and force a landing in Italy for the commercial jet the terrorists were later flying on.

There are other examples like forcing downed flights in the hunt for Snowden, but it's super rare and ultimately unlikely.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#229

Post by hansvm »

caminante wrote: post #228
hansvm wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And never have an emergency (accidentally, FBI-forced landing, etc) causing you to accidentally inhabit those countries either.

I thought I'd heard of this but couldn't find enough examples of this, let alone an FBI induced landing. It appears REALLY hard to step over jurisdictions. I did find the PLO terrorist incident from 1985. The terrorists killed an American on a cruiseship, Achille Lauro. Reagan sent a fighter jet to intercept, escort, and force a landing in Italy for the commercial jet the terrorists were later flying on. There are ot…

Oh yeah, it's definitely super rare, especially when we do anything to force the landing. The Snowden example is the only one coming to mind, and that was a decade ago.

There are a number cases where the stop was known ahead of time (like Maher Arar), but those are moderately rare too.

Re: Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term

#230

Post by Ferret7446 »

hilariously wrote: post #204
sudodudeo wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto is... a currency? The people yoloing into crypto in the hopes it will go up are not the same people advocating for a global currency revolution.

And why exactly are we "hoping for a global currency revolution" - hint, its all the bad stuff that's hard to do with current currency regulations.

> And why exactly are we "hoping for a global currency revolution"

So that Visa and MasterCard can't censor things they don't like. So that PayPal can't block creators from withdrawing money because they made a Japanese style game

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