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Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

writing.antonleicht.me

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Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#221

Post by digitaltrees »

margorczynski wrote: post #84
digitaltrees wrote: post #31

The thing is, the open source models are are smart enough to do most work if the harness and orchestration is right. So even if the next gen model get locked behind monopoly pay walls build Real things in the real world and fight for a humane world

The availability of open models with such capabilities are based on the goodwill of the Chinese. And that might end eventually, especially that the matter is one decision of Xi and the party.

True but I’d argue they are good enough now to do 10 years of continued workflow automation. It’s like the internal combustion engine or personal computer, at some point they were good enough for broad categories of work. I think that’s where the current models are.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#222

Post by vunderba »

Animats wrote: post #66

Over on the image generation side, "frontier AI" seems to be coming along rather well. Watch this video, which was released eight days ago.[1] Can you find any flaws? Two years ago, just getting hands with the right number of fingers was tough. Last year, there were jarring errors in every scene. Now, very little is wrong. How much longer will anyone need Hollywood studios? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zTCLIh…

Every continuous shot lasts no more than five to ten seconds. It's not a "give-away" as such, but it's certainly a tell. r/aivideo is chockful of this crap.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#223

Post by vunderba »

Animats wrote: post #208
Morromist wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a LOT better than 2 years ago, but there are flaws and its unpleasant to watch. The most easy to spot is their shoes (which they weren't wearing 1 second ago) flying off their feet without being kicked off in the first 10 seconds. But if progress keeps going I'm sure it will get to the point where my brain doesn't feel sick after watching it. I hope so, because I'm sure there's a lot of AI videos in my future,…

Yes, such systems are still struggling with continuity. (There might be a workflow solution to that. Part of the system needs to do the job of what old films list as the "continuity girl". For each shot, there's a blocking diagram of who stands where at the beginning of the shot. There's a description of what each character is wearing, holding, or touching. If something generated that for the end of each shot, and it…

Local text-to-vid such as LTX Video 2.3 or even older WAN could easily handle this then combine with something like SeedVR2 to upscale.

https://github.com/Lightricks/ComfyUI-LTXVideo

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#224

Post by Our_Benefactors »

gmerc wrote: post #209
Our_Benefactors wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meanwhile Deepseek V3’s famously frugal training was $5M And widely derided once the team was unable to provide receipts. It’s more likely to be 10x

Why make up things? The papers are published completely and apples to apples compares 5M final training run against grok 3.5 (400M)final training run.

Oh, it was written in a paper, must be correct then, no further investigation required just believe it at face value! No track record of academic dishonestly, and definitely no incentives to fudge the numbers.

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#225

Post by oliculipolicula »

jdw64 wrote: post #77

As someone who actively monitors the Chinese internet as well, I believe we are heading toward a world split into two distinct AI spheres. Coming from South Korea—a nation outside the US-China dichotomy—the fundamental issue I see is the closed nature of the American AI ecosystem. Products like Gemini, GPT, and Claude are API and subscription-based, meaning their pricing and access terms can change at any moment. If…

Yes, CANN is that "emerging centralising entity" (from POV of Westerners)

I came up with a shorter summary of what you refer to as "my work"

  Decentralisation is too important to leave to the (direct) decentralisers.
To ensure that the externalities of standardisation are borne by the standard-proposer, eg.

Echoing your countryman https://archive.ph/2014.04.30-203815/http://www.theguardian....

But also Georges Clemenceau ("War is too important to leave to the generals")

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#226

Post by slim »

Morromist wrote: post #100
Animats wrote: post #66

Over on the image generation side, "frontier AI" seems to be coming along rather well. Watch this video, which was released eight days ago.[1] Can you find any flaws? Two years ago, just getting hands with the right number of fingers was tough. Last year, there were jarring errors in every scene. Now, very little is wrong. How much longer will anyone need Hollywood studios? [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zTCLIh…

It is a LOT better than 2 years ago, but there are flaws and its unpleasant to watch. The most easy to spot is their shoes (which they weren't wearing 1 second ago) flying off their feet without being kicked off in the first 10 seconds. But if progress keeps going I'm sure it will get to the point where my brain doesn't feel sick after watching it. I hope so, because I'm sure there's a lot of AI videos in my future,…

the most easy to spot is the camp fire reflection on the car :D

Re: Access to frontier AI will soon be limited by economic and security constraints

#227

Post by rsolva »

uejfiweun wrote: post #210
rsolva wrote: post #160

In our company of 24 employees, we get by with two DGX Sparks. We don't use AI heavily, but each Spark can serve about 6-8 concurrent requests with a full context lenght of 256k, which is decent. We get about ~35 t/s depending on the model we use (currently Qwen3.5 122B A10B and Qwen3 Coder Next), but we might set up a smaller model too for simpler tasks. This works for us and will work for years to come. It is not S…

This is pretty cool. How would you say that these open models compare to SOTA on coding tasks? I pay $200/mo for Claude Max but honestly this sounds way more fun.

Nowadays I use our local setup 95% of the time, but it is not that long since that flipped for me personally.

Context: I have a $20 Claude Code subscription, and have used it for a handfull of small-ish projects the last year, in parallel with local models on my AMD 9700XTX (24GB) at home. Mostly Ministral 14B and more recently Qwen3.6 27B Dense 4q.

Historically, the tooling (interferens engines and harness) has been the biggest challenge when using local models, a lot of the benefits from Claude Code was a rather unified and well oiled agent system. Local setups often bring with them sutle incompatibilities between models, inference engines and agent systems that are not obvious from initial testing, but cause trouble on projects larger than a couple of files.

The Spark setup at work is now at a point where I do not miss Claude, like at all. A big part of this is the harness and the tools available to the agent, most critically a good tool for searching online. I use my Kagi subscription to allow the models to fetch up-to-date information, and the Kagi MCP I use also has a summarizer which is very helpful in avoiding rapidly filling up the context window.

I mostly use Zed and it's native agent, which only recently got muuuch better, and on the terminal I use Pi with a minimal selection of extensions (currently pi-kagi-search, pi-smart-fetch, pi-btw and pi-diffloop). I also have Pi in Zed via the ACP, but it does not work so well with some of the extensions, especially the lack of a built-in permission system is a problem, when YOLO-mode is the only mode :)

Honestly, as long as you have a model that is decent at tool calling, your good. Having a solid and stable frame around your model makes a huge difference. The only caveat in all of this is that I spend most of my time on smaller projects and debugging on linux base systems, not huge and complex code bases, so your mileage might vary.

The next phase at work is to set up a chatGPT-like webinterface, and so far LibreChat is at the top of my shortlist. We had OpenWebUI for a while, but it is so bad at using MCP tools that it is practically non-functional for us. LibreChat is a bit more work to set up, but the interface and it's MCP story is much more solid. The goal is to plug in our internal helpdesk, docs and task manager system to LibreChat via MCPs to give us a quick way to query and gather information that is currently very time consuming to do on your own.

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