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Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

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Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#221

Post by Tepix »

zigman1 wrote: post #131
Tepix wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What‘s the source for the 20 years? Seems unlikely to me. b) You can also buy used EVs. I bought one last year, 2 years old, for 56% of the original price.

How is the battery?

Well the car has done 50,000km before I bought it and tbh in the winter it lost quite a bit of range (I've had a different EV previously and its range didn't decrease as much during the winter). The car has a warranty on the battery valid for 8 years or 160,000km (whatever occurs first), the manufacturer promises it will have 70% or more capacity at that point.

ADAC did a test with a vehicle that reached 160,000km and its battery was at 91%.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#222

Post by Tepix »

IshKebab wrote: post #142
Tepix wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What‘s the source for the 20 years? Seems unlikely to me. b) You can also buy used EVs. I bought one last year, 2 years old, for 56% of the original price.

My source is just personal observation, but I'm clearly not far off: https://www.scrap-car-dealers.co.uk/latest-news/post/average... > As of 2025, the average age of a scrapped car in the UK is between 16 and 20 years old! ... > You can also buy used EVs. True, but you're quite limited there since good EVs have only been around for a very small number of years. Maybe you can get an old Tesla for not too much but that…

There is a huge difference between these two statements:

> most people keep cars for 20 years or more

and

> the average age of a scrapped car in the UK is between 16 and 20 years old

Because the second fact doesn't tell you whether or not the 1st fact is true. After all, there is a second hand market where you can find cars of every age.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#223

Post by YetAnotherNick »

raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #220
YetAnotherNick wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your average developer at Apple has no idea how many iPhones Apple sold in China. But if anyone is connected to few friends across team, they would know they are hiring for China sales team(or dependent team like internal tooling for sales etc.) aggressively or firing them.

As large as any big tech company is and as a silo’d few employees have friends across teams. Besides that, at every tech company, all information like that is a need to know and isn’t shared with “friends” - especially information that can move markets.

I don't know if you ever worked on big tech? Everyone knows this through gossips, referrals, friends of friends etc. The hard part is to figure out how actionable this information is.

> information that can move markets.

That's the hardest part to figure out. Stocks aren't very correlated with anything. Slight changes in this quarter's iPhone sales in China doesn't move the share price very much if it is within range of expectation.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#224

Post by ErroneousBosh »

Schiendelman wrote: post #215
ErroneousBosh wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Repair costs are pretty minimal. I just spent £120 on some bearings that I intend to replace while I'm off for the Easter holidays which isn't bad. I don't much care about the depreciation on a 30-year-old vehicle that I bought outright for considerably less than the price of a single car payment for something new. I doubt I'd get anything for trading it in, and I'd probably get about £100-£150 if I scrapped it, or s…

I get you, I really do. I love being able to repair my own things, I'm comfortable in a shop, and I used to have this attitude. But man, these ships sailed a long time ago. You don't get anything out of being a stick in the mud except undervaluing your time.

Why do you think I'm undervaluing my time?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#225

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

YetAnotherNick wrote: post #223
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As large as any big tech company is and as a silo’d few employees have friends across teams. Besides that, at every tech company, all information like that is a need to know and isn’t shared with “friends” - especially information that can move markets.

I don't know if you ever worked on big tech? Everyone knows this through gossips, referrals, friends of friends etc. The hard part is to figure out how actionable this information is. > information that can move markets. That's the hardest part to figure out. Stocks aren't very correlated with anything. Slight changes in this quarter's iPhone sales in China doesn't move the share price very much if it is within range…

Yes I have.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47622584

I have worked at Amazon. I can guarantee you that no one on the Amazon Retail side had any clue what went on at AWS or vice versa.

Do you think that any of the rank and file knew that Jassy was going to announce mass layoffs or that Amazon was going to spend so much on Capex for AI that the stock would go down?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#226

Post by ErroneousBosh »

Schiendelman wrote: post #198
throwaway27448 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would the math look like to make an EV cheaper than using an ICE car you already own? It looks an awful lot like you're just dodging the numbers yourself.

I would be happy to share the exact numbers I used to figure out replacing a 2017 Ford Fusion with a 2023 Tesla Model 3 would save me money. And it has. When most people make these comparisons, they don't consider depreciation, trade-in value, or maintenance costs. I don't understand what I was dodging though. Can you be really specific? Help me out.

> I would be happy to share the exact numbers I used to figure out replacing a 2017 Ford Fusion with a 2023 Tesla Model 3 would save me money. And it has.

I'd like to see those. Do you own both vehicles outright?

Can you buy an EV for less than about £300 per month total running costs (insurance, charging, finance payment, etc) that can tow a 3500kg trailer off road?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#227

Post by antonkochubey »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #201
zigman1 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is the battery?

I roll my eyes at this question because it's often framed as good faith curiosity, but it's often asked in bad faith by people that think it's a "gotcha" question, because they have this incorrect notion that EV batteries need to be replaced frequently. They see the warranty is 100K miles/8 years or whatever and think that means they have to replace the battery after 100K miles/8 years, yet fail to recognize that the…

In my country it is 8y/160k km for batteries and 5-10y/150-200k km for ICE cars.

That being said, when a battery fails, it’s a €20,000+ whole unit replacement (e.g. for Audi e-tron 55 it is €26,500 in my country), while ICE failures very rarely need a whole unit replacement, usually it’s a €1700 turbocharger or a €400 injector or something of that caliber. Personal anecdote: my 12 year old 262k km BMW did not need any engine repairs until now, except for free manufacturer recall on the EGR cooling system. And it still has 1000 km highway range in the winter.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#228

Post by zigman1 »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #201
zigman1 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is the battery?

I roll my eyes at this question because it's often framed as good faith curiosity, but it's often asked in bad faith by people that think it's a "gotcha" question, because they have this incorrect notion that EV batteries need to be replaced frequently. They see the warranty is 100K miles/8 years or whatever and think that means they have to replace the battery after 100K miles/8 years, yet fail to recognize that the…

Unfortunately, I don't know how else to ask something I am genuinely curious about.
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