Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 631 posts

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#221

Post by JumpCrisscross »

plqbfbv wrote: post #202
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> imagine if Russia gets vindictive and starts destroying these satellites Sounds like lots of demand for new launches from the military-industrial complex. > imagine if Russia gets vindictive and starts destroying these satellites Space is big. It’s almost always cheaper to individually target satellites than to try and blanket orbits. And with Starship vs ASAT, the cheap drones are the satellites. Russia would bank…

> It’s almost always cheaper to individually target satellites than to try and blanket orbits. The problem is that even one satellite could start the Kessler syndrome due to how many are currently in orbit, and the numbers are expected to keep increasing rapidly - everyone wants their "sovereign" Starlink now that it has been shown to be feasible and performant.

> problem is that even one satellite could start the Kessler syndrome

No, it can’t. Not in LEO. Militaries have searched for these one-shot solutions; there is no known orbital system for which it works. (In LEO.)

The only fuck-you orbits are in GEO.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#222

Post by mtharrison »

wavemode wrote: post #20
charcircuit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sensitive financial information. It is normal for companies to file confidentiality to avoid leaking information early.

Parent commenter is making a joke about the fact that, in the title "SpaceX Files to Go Public", the word "Files" could be read as either a noun or a verb.

:)

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#223

Post by bilsbie »

jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

I can see both sides of it though. The old rule made more sense when companies ipo’d at small valuations. It could be argued it’s wrong to keep one the top five market cap companies off the sp500 for a year.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#224

Post by tw04 »

disqard wrote: post #176
Spooky23 wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, we elected a bunch of criminals, and Elon fired everyone who regulates this. The SEC was gutted like a fish, and contract terminations resulted in a large percentage of FINRA staff being laid off.

But the Dow is over 50,000 right now!!!1 (actually, 46,565.74 right now)

$50,000.

Gotta be accurate. Just saying 50,000 implies her incoherent rant was even a little bit based in reality.

https://youtu.be/WK12_IkAj2s?t=94

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#225

Post by tristanj »

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation.

SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. It would be worth $10s of trillions.

I personally believe SpaceX has a 70% chance of achieving its Mars ambitions. So I find the current $1.75 trillion valuation very logical, if not a little underpriced.

If you believe there's a SpaceX won't achieve these ambitions, which I'd assume most people in this thread belong to, then you'd assign a The current $1.75 trillion valuation comes from the ratio of people in camp A to camp B.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#226

Post by ericd »

mlloyd wrote: post #211
irishcoffee wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They absolutely succeeded because they had a better search engine. Without a doubt. I imagine there’s more than a few folks around here who used shit like askjeeves, altavista, et. al. Google was heads and shoulders better than those, and continued to get better over time. No, I’m no Google fan, but it’s revisionist history to say they didn’t have the best search engine.

Agreed. They won by having the best product. And it wasn't even close.

Yep, I tried it when it had the original logo, was using Altavista until then, it was immediately obvious that they were going to win.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#227

Post by JumpCrisscross »

notahacker wrote: post #200
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> get the feeling investors are going to watch Starship explode and explode while it's being developed without understanding the trial/error, hardware rich, approach SpaceX takes Investors have been doing this since SpaceX first raised outside funding. American capital markets are not that risk averse.

tbf those investments weren't traded on a liquid market, and I suspect Founders Fund are less worried about short term setbacks than your average mutual fund or mug punter. But of course we also know that Musk-run public companies are immune to normal dynamics of worrying about next quarter's returns (or even worrying about the CEO publicly torching his brand equity) so the very last thing I'd imagine happening is Sp…

> Founders Fund are less worried about short term setbacks than your average mutual fund

Fidelity has been an investor since 2014. The only new money flows will be index and retail; everyone else has had access for years.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#228

Post by sethops1 »

stickfigure wrote: post #74
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

Serious question: Is there some ETF that is "Index of S&P500 minus anything that smells like Musk"?

There is XMAG, but beware the expense ratio is much higher than the mainstream indices.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#229

Post by daveguy »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #185
lenerdenator wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't need to enter the mainstream discourse. It needs to enter the inbox of a grand jury docket.

What crime do you think was committed? Indices are privately maintained and transparently rebalanced.

Yeah, not illegal, just corrupt AF like all the garbage spewing out of the Dumpty admin.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#230

Post by baby_souffle »

dawnerd wrote: post #196
indoordin0saur wrote: post #113

SpaceX has reduced the cost of getting a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10 and with their new system (Starship) it's poised further reduce that to 100x. They launch, land and re-use their rockets so often now that what was considered impossible 15 years ago is now routine. They currently put more things into space than the rest of the world combined and by a huge margin. They also have the most advanced intern…

Hey are absolutely not replacing “legacy” isps and certainly not mobile. Even if they had perfect coverage, sat signals are way too sensitive to obstructions.

If anything they'll go for the lucrative customers that _need_ a signal to go faster through vacuum than through glass.

Maybe some decent revenue offering sat to cell for the traditional carriers.

Post reply on HN