Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which might not be a thing anymore soon the way things are going…
Other way around - the Saudis are making bank.
well, until the Iranians blow up their refineries.
OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
221–230 of 529 posts
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#222"Commited capital" - is this the same commited as the $500B for the Stargate project ?
Not gonna lie, I hate those announcements lately. It's full bullshit mode, worse than the Dot-com bubble. Numbers don't make any sense, any more, and yet journalist don't ask any real questions...
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#223Fortunately, I was afraid that this was another bubble. /s
I wonder what the bet is here, long term that valuation is going to have to go up even further for this investment to make sense so they're clearly betting that at IPO time they'll be able to convincingly demonstrate AGI or something extremely close to it. That's a pretty risky bet, and meanwhile, whatever they come up with will be a commodity within a year. And that's besides OpenAI no longer being seen as the dominant player or the player with the best edge.
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#224Google is totally going to run this company out of money aren't they?
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#225With $122B what are you going to build next? Spaceships?
Nah, you'll get a few days worth of inference.
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI. This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently? Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also…
> To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before Maybe in Europe. The US stock market has nearly tripled since then. Literally the best period of stock growth in history.
"The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, "stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.'"
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-cr...
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why are we treating OpenAI and Anthropic differently than say, Amazon or Uber? Both companies invested in growth for many years before making a profit. Most tech companies in the last 2-3 decades lost money for years before making a profit. Why are we saying that OpenAI and Anthropic can't do the same?
Two reasons. They somewhat broke even, and kept getting investment. The potential for quasi monopoly was obvious. Openai can't claim either.
Worse, Google can afford to outspend them in this game and basically run them both out of money.
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not really. Most people won't self host.
The general public will self-host it's built in to your next phone or laptop straight out of the box or maybe from the App Store.
True. I was thinking more of power users. Do you think Opus level capabilities will run on your average laptop in a year? I think that's pretty far away if ever.
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
not if your product is selling two dollars for one dollar and as soon as you'll start to charge more I'll switch to one of your twenty competitors profit isn't a function of having a killer product, it's a function of having no competition
And why do you think twenty competitors can stay competitive for years to come? Industries always consolidate and winners emerge. SOTA LLMs look like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me because the cost to train the next model keeps going up such that it won't make sense for 20 competitors to compete at the very high end. TSMC is a perfect example of this. Fab costs double every 4 years (Rock’s Law). It's almost impo…
Google has completely caught OpenAI. Anthropic has a better coding model, but I'm sure Google is working on that too.
Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation
#230This is so bad. OpenAI has already singlehandedly destroyed the global flash memory market with their war chest, this will just give them more power.