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AI coding is gambling

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Re: AI coding is gambling

#221

Post by ChiefTinkeer »

watzon wrote: post #110

I think this article makes a valid point. However, if AI coding is considered gambling, then being a project manager overseeing multiple developers could also be seen as a form of gambling to a certain degree. In reality, there isn't much difference between the two. AI models are non-deterministic, and humans are also non-deterministic. You could assign the same task to two different developers and end up with entire…

I think this is a very good point. We have a natural bias toward human output as there is an illusion of full control - in reality even just from a solo dev perspective you've still got a load of hidden illogical persuasions that are influencing your code and how you approach a problem. AI has its own biases that come out of the nature its training on large unknowable data sets, but I'd argue the 'black box' thinking that comes out that isn't too different to the black box of the human mind. That's not at all to say that AI isn't worse (even if quicker) than top developer talent today writing handwritten code - just that the barrier to getting that level of quality isn't as insurmountable as it might appear.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#222

Post by zephen »

dzink wrote: post #82

It’s variable rewards and even with large models the same question can lead to dramatically different answers. Possibly because they route your request through different models. Possibly because the model has more time to dig through the problem. Nonetheless we have some illusion of control over the output (you we wouldn’t be playing it) but it is just the quality of the model itself that leads to better outcomes - n…

This is being overlooked, downplayed, or simply not understood, by many commenters.

It is exactly like the proverbial monkey or rat pressing a bar for a food pellet to come out.

If the pellet unerringly drops, and is always tasty and nutritious, the rat stops when it's no longer hungry.

Otherwise, an inordinate amount of time is spent pressing the bar.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#223

Post by rsoto2 »

interestpiqued wrote: post #200
Terr_ wrote: post #36

I'd emphasize that prompting LLMs to generate code isn't just metaphorical gambling in the sense of "taking a risk", the scary part is the more-literal gambling involving addictive behaviors and how those affect the way the user interacts with the machine and the world. Heck, this technology also offers a parasocial relationship at the same time! Plopping tokens into a slot-machine which also projects a holographic "…

I think AI literally makes even being wrong feel like getting something done. And that is the addictive part for people.

Look at all this text I have! It can't be worthless right?!

Re: AI coding is gambling

#224

Post by bigstrat2003 »

zzzeek wrote: post #125

coding with an LLM works if the model you are following is: you have the role of architect and/or senior developer, and you have the smartest junior programmer in the world working for you. You watch everything it does, check its conclusions, challenge it, call it out on things it didnt get quite right it's really extremely similar to working with a junior programmer so in this post, where does this go wrong? > I am…

> it's really extremely similar to working with a junior programmer

Right, which is why LLMs aren't useful if you actually know what you're doing. It's a drain on your time to have to carefully check everything a junior writes, but you do it because he will learn and eventually return on that investment. With an LLM, there is no such long term payoff.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#225

Post by bigstrat2003 »

bensyverson wrote: post #108
james2doyle wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

_hyper-competent collaborator who may completely make things up occasionally and will sometimes give different answers to the same question*_

So, indistinguishable from a human then

No. A competent human doesn't make things up, he admits ignorance. He also only very rarely changes answers he previously gave.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#226

Post by bigstrat2003 »

CraftingLinks wrote: post #30

I see whole teams pushed by c- level going full in with spec driven + tdd development. The devs hate it because they are literally forbidden to touch a single line if code. but the results speak for themselves, it just works and the pressure has shifted to the product people to keep up. The whole tooling to enable this had to be worked out first. All Cursor and extreme use of a tool called Speckit, connected to Notio…

> but the results speak for themselves, it just works

The results do speak for themselves, but it doesn't work.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#227

Post by rsoto2 »

7777332215 wrote: post #159

The problem with AI coding is that you no longer own the foundational tools.

What?? Surely once these companies have locked in their Claude workflows claude wouldn't somehow raise the price. Or steal inventions like Amazon does. Surely.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#228

Post by ponector »

PaulHoule wrote: post #130
MeetingsBrowser wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You (in theory) have more control over the quality of the team you are managing, than the quality of the models you are using. And the quality of code models puts out is, in general, well below the average output of a professional developer. It is however much faster, which makes the gambling loop feel better. Buying and holding a stock for a few months doesn't feel the same as playing a slot machine.

One difference is those developers are moral subjects who feel bad if they screw up whereas a computer is not a moral subject and can never be held accountable. https://simonwillison.net/2025/Feb/3/a-computer-can-never-be...

Right, you need to hire a scapegoat. Usually tester has that role: little impact but huge responsibility for quality.

Re: AI coding is gambling

#229

Post by beepbooptheory »

pdntspa wrote: post #126
bluefirebrand wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I finally feel like I'm _good_ at programming, which is insane, because I literally haven't written a line of code myself in months This is exactly the sort of mentality that makes me hate this technology You finally feel good at programming despite admitting that you aren't actually doing it Please explain why anyone should take this seriously?

Because the programming is and was always a means to an end. Obsessing over the specific mechanical act of programming is taking the forest for the trees. I agree with gp that the speed in which I am able to execute my vision is exhilarating. It is making me love programming again. My side projects, which have been hanging on the wall for years , are actually getting done. And quickly! The actual act of keying in cod…

"I really really love cooking. In fact, I have optimized my cooking completely, I go out to restaurants every night!"

I believe gp and others just like food instead of cooking. Which is fine, but if that's the case, why go around telling everyone you're a cook?

Re: AI coding is gambling

#230

Post by pdntspa »

cess11 wrote: post #194
pdntspa wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of my side projects scratch an itch, so I do want the output. There are not enough hours in the day for me to make all the things I want to make. Code is just the vessel, and one I am happy to outsource if I can maintain a high standard of work. It's a blessing to finally find a workflow that makes me feel like I have a shot at building most of the things I want to.

Are these things that no one previously built and published, so you can go and take a look at their implementation?

Possibly. Mostly?

I wanted a stackable desk tray shelf thing for my desk in literally any size for my clutter. Too lazy to go shopping for one, and couldn't find one on any of the maker sites, so I had claude write me an openSCAD file over lunch break then we iterated on it after-hours. By end of work next day I had three of them sitting on my desk after about 3 hours of back-and-forth the night before (along with about half a dozen tiny prototypes), and thats including the 2hr print time for each shelf.

I want a music metadata tool that is essentially TheGodfather but brought into the modern day and incorporates workflows I wish I had for my DJing and music production. And not some stupid web app, a proper desktop app with a proper windowing toolkit. I'd estimate it would take me 12-18 months to get to a beta the old way, to the exclusion of most of my other hobbies and projects, instead first Gemini then Claude and I managed to get a pretty nice alpha out in a few months over the summer while I was unemployed. There's still a lot left I want to add but it already replaced several apps in my music intake workflow. I've had a number of successful DJ gigs making use of the music that I run through this app. Funny enough the skills I learned on that project landed me a pretty great gig that lets me do essentially the same thing, at the same pace, for more pay than I've ever made in my SWE career to-date.

A bunch of features for my website, a hand-coded Rails app I wrote a few years ago, went from my TODO pile to deployment in just a couple of hours. Not to mention it handled upgrading Ruby and Rails and ported the whole deployment to docker in an afternoon, which made it easy to migrate to a $3 VPS fronted by cloudflare.

I have a ton of ideas for games and multimedia type apps that I would never be able to work on at an acceptable pace and also earn the living that lets me afford these tools in the first place. Most of those ideas are unlike any game I've ever seen or played. I'm not yet ready to start on these yet but when/if I do I expect development to proceed at a comfortably brisk pace. The possibilities for Claude + Unreal + the years and years of free assets I've collected from Epic's Unreal store are exciting! And I haven't even gotten into having AI generate game assets.

So idunno, does that count?

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