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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#221

Post by kasey_junk »

asdff wrote: post #210
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Calculating unemployment seems like it is always going to be a challenge no matter how it is done. For example, the current system in the US does not track unemployed graduates, as they have not been laid off and are not filing for unemployment benefits.

That’s just not true. Most of the six unemployment numbers capture unemployed graduates but m3 the headline number certainly does.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#222

Post by [deleted] »

pocksuppet wrote: post #131
input_sh wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.

The first sign many Roman citizens had that their empire had collapsed is when a bridge near them fell down and nobody showed up to repair it. America's been in that mode for a long time.

[deleted]

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#223

Post by RandomLensman »

alephnerd wrote: post #23
rf15 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really do not understand how interdependent everyone is. The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example. The US kneecapped itself for no reason.

> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example The US, not Europe. ASML's EUV and High NA EUV production is all done in California via US DoE joint ventures (specifically Cymer LLC [0]). Additionally, their metrology IP is Taiwanese [1] as part of ASML's acquisition of HMI back in 2016 with Taiwanese approval [2]. ASML is the capital partner because in the early 2000s, the US government wanted to preve…

Where can I see the DOE having a stake in Cymer?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#224

Post by gcanyon »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

> for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up.

That’s a bold claim, do you have sources to back it up? If true, we’d all (I’d, at least) learn an important lesson.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#225

Post by tastyface »

lpa22 wrote: post #53
looksjjhg wrote: post #7

It’s amazing and terrifying watching an empire die

The US is the best 400 mil population country in the world

What's the point of this comment? It says little, accomplishes nothing, and convinces no one of anything.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#226

Post by specproc »

michaelchisari wrote: post #122
specproc wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

The collapse of the Soviet Union was ahistorical in many ways. It's rare that collapse of an empire can be pinpointed to a single day. And what you saw was a result of shock therapy imposed from the outside. I doubt that would happen to the US. It's unlikely collapse will be felt as a singular, apocalyptic event. More like a slow, steady loss of influence and excess wealth. Countries on the periphery stop considering…

Britain's demise was relatively swift, and took place over the course of the two world wars. It fell almost immediately into vassalage, under the US. Not quite a bang, but not as drawn out as you suggest.

Its former colonies experienced all I described above and more. In this case, the colonies are most of the world: where are the bases? Everywhere.

With the States, here's the scenario, not too far fetched. We will see 1) constitutional breakdown, as Trump (or his crew) digs in, and 2) economic breakdown, 2008 but exponentially worse.

This would constitute a Soviet scale collapse, to my mind.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#227

Post by MSFT_Edging »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #114
input_sh wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.

> It'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks. There is some truth to this. Other examples of crossing the line and breaking long-term trust would be: To Canada: Statements about Canada last year. To Europe: The idiocy around Greenland earlier this year To the Middle East: Current events.

I do wonder how far certain acts could go in rebuilding the trust.

Ie real actual legal liability. Line up anyone who did insider trading, the doge guys, the big mouths in the big house, and put them through a zero tolerance military tribunal.

No bullshit kangaroo court where they're let off with a slap on the wrist because they're rich.

I mean strip every last one of these motherfuckers of everything they're worth. 180 the kangaroo court. Make a public mockery of them. Posters everywhere.

Think of it as a peace offering for the rest of the world. We could even include the war on terror guys in there, all the liars who claimed WMDs could go to the same federal prison. No cushions.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#229

Post by e40 »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

I think the real issue now is that it's 10x worse. The people controlling things are actively and shamelessly making things worse, for their own purposes (so there is less accountability, IMO). The problem is the new, unintended side effects of what they are doing. Because they aren't really that smart, they don't even understand this.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#230

Post by Joel_Mckay »

CalRobert wrote: post #204
Joel_Mckay wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GDP is a measure of economic activity, and goes up when people are forced to rebuild after natural disasters etc. %Debt to GDP excluding military pay and allowances indicates how your grandchildren will live. Above >130% they will be poor, and remain poor indefinitely. You may disagree, but it is not like anyone wants this to happen. The economic conservatives were compromised, and went insane =3

I wish it were easier to measure well-being. Someone who works 20 hours a week and half has as much money may well be enjoying life more than someone working 40 hours a week, but we don't quantify this well. When I lived in California I was always weirded out by colleagues talking about how they never took vacations. It's like bragging about being poor.

Generally, there is a fundamental philosophical difference between currency and wealth. In silicon valley, a middle class life is well over >$180k/yr, as Rent-seeking economics is unsustainable.

Rule #23: Don't compete to be at the bottom, as you just might actually win.

Have a glorious day =3

The ikigai chart helps some highlight better options:

https://hyperisland.com/en/blog/thought-leadership/feeling-d...

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