They will, not may. I think you are about to see what post-AGI economics really looks like and it is not good at all. So-called "AGI" has been hijacked and it isn't what you think it is.
Do tell. What is AGI?
Depends on who you ask.
Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
221–230 of 249 posts
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The 1880s blacksmith [...] moved to shared housing in Manchester and a shorter lifespan working for poverty wages, lost fingers/arms in machines, maybe ended up on skid row That's... just not remotely true, unless you're talking about it as a maybe-it-happened-to-someone story. In fact it's basically a lie. Every income group in the US (and recognize that "blacksmiths" represent skilled trades workers who earned we…
You need to tighten up before you call someone a liar. Manchester is the poster child city for the industrial revolution. The blacksmith moving to Manchester had a lower lifespan/quality of life, it's not in question or up for debate. He is who we will be in the AI disruption, not the person in 1950. https://www.scienceandindustrymuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stor... https://healthinnovationmanchester.com/cottonopolis-to…
> Manchester is the poster child city for the industrial revolution.
Which is to say, you cherry picked the data rather than looking at aggregates. Manchester industrialization being terribly managed isn't an indictment of steel machining or electrification, it means the government fucked up.
What you are claiming (that the industrial revolution led to lower quality of life generally) is simply false, period. And it won't be true of AGImageddon either, no matter how deeply you believe it. Economics just doesn't work that way.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#223Why is oracle invested in ai at all? It seems entirely unrelated to the value they offer.
Line MUST go up. If it doesn't you get replaced by someone who will make it go up. There is very deep belief in infinite exponential growth. And not following that belief gets you replaced by someone who shows that belief. And then you stop being paid...
You say this, but oracle, ibm, microsoft, google, facebook, intel, etc etc are obvious counterexamples. Nobody got fired for hiring whatever brand it is the phrase says people are supposed to hire.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#224The economy is going to go into a deep recession for years with the current economic environment. There will be nobody left to spend money, just increasing corporate and ultra high wealth spend. The rest will be left with food and water. We are destroying currently valuable jobs to allocate resources to electricity and silicon, concentrating wealth into 10 companies pockets. I don't know what comes after, but when yo…
> The rest will be left with food and water.
Why? That's wasteful. The money for that should go to the shareholders, and the moocher problem will solve itself in a couple of weeks.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
ASICs only work for very small and heavily quantized models. Moreover, they are fixed function hardware, so whenever you have a new model, you have to throw the current chips away and design and buy new ones. That's like buying a new CPU every time a new OS version comes out.
That depends what kind of ASIC you’re talking about. Cerebras can run models like GLM 4.7 with 355B parameters.
Cerebras just uses SRAM instead of DRAM. An ASIC would instead hardwire the neural network.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don't know what Oracle does? What?
I mean, it's a fair question. I think a lot of people would think of the RDBMS, but obviously they don't have 180k people working on that. They do all sorts of other stuff as well, of course, but I'm not sure people necessarily think of that when they hear 'Oracle'. A database, plus American SAP, plus a sort of also-ran AWS-type thing, plus the sad remains of Sun, is about it.
they lease a lot of data center space to GCP/AWS/Azure effectively taking on capex.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
TPUs are not ASICs if they can execute arbitrary models.
Forgive my ignorance but wouldn't a TPU be a kind of ASIC where the application is model inference? The TPU Wikipedia article also says it's an ASIC - we should update it if it's wrong.
In the limit, even a CPU could be called an ASIC because certain algorithmic operations (ALU etc) are implemented in hardware. CPU/ASIC are really poles of a gradient, with a CPU implementing very little in hardware and most in software, while an ASIC has very little software and lots of hardware. A TPU is presumably in between. I would argue however that it is closer to a GPU than to a full-blown ASIC, because the weights are stored in memory only, making them software.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#228We will continue to be told this is because AI is driving efficiency instead of that it's driving CapEx and investors won't tolerate FCF collapsing.
I strongly believe AI will drive efficiency. I’m less certain about whether that’s already happening or will happen in the future and when in the future. However, I’ve already seen a CTO of a F100 company explicitly state that whether AI is driving efficiency or not, the capital investment, and more importantly, the promises of efficiency to investors will mean some people will be let go. Efficiency is output/input.…
> a CTO of a F100 company explicitly state that whether AI is driving efficiency or not, the capital investment, and more importantly, the promises of efficiency to investors will mean some people will be let go
That seems like an insane gamble to me. Lay off all the workers now and hope that AI can deliver on its promise to replace them some time in the indeterminate future.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
That depends what kind of ASIC you’re talking about. Cerebras can run models like GLM 4.7 with 355B parameters.
Cerebras just uses SRAM instead of DRAM. An ASIC would instead hardwire the neural network.
Surely it's more of a spectrum? From a CPU, to a TPU, to a chip that hardwires softmax attention but lets you store arbitrary weights, to one that hardwires the weights directly.
Re: Oracle may slash up to 30k jobs to fund AI data-centers as US banks retreat
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Those numbers are fraudulently underreported by the US government. Smart people have sold their US backed holdings. I'm making bank on gold and the international market.
Gold being a good investment is about as glaring a sign as there is for the third-worldifiction of the economy by dictators and the rich.