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RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

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Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And then memory expanded so much that all kinds of “optimal” patterns for programming just become nearly irrelevant. I don't think that ever happened. Using relatively sparse amount of memory turns into better cache management which in turn usually improves performance drastically. And in embedded stuff being good with memory management can make the difference between 'works' and 'fail'.

The need to use optimal patterns didn't go away, but the techniques certainly did. Just as a quick example, it's usually a bad idea now to use lookup tables to accelerate small math workloads. The lookup table creates memory pressure on the cache, which ends up degrading performance on modern systems. Back in the 1980s, lookup tables were by far the dominant technique because math was *slow.*

> Back in the 1980s, lookup tables were by far the dominant technique because math was slow.

This actually generalizes in a rather clean way: compared to the 1980s, you now want to cheaply compress data in memory and use succinct representations as much as practicable, since the extra compute involved in translating a more succinct representation into real data is practically free compared to even one extra cacheline fetch from RAM (which is now hundreds of cycles latency, and in parallel code often has surprisingly low throughput).

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#222

I had my formative years in programming when memory usage was something you still worried about as a programmer. And then memory expanded so much that all kinds of “optimal” patterns for programming just become nearly irrelevant. Will we start to actually consider this in software solutions again as a result?

I never really bought in to the anti-Leetcode crowd’s sentiment that it’s irrelevant. It has always mattered as a competitive edge, against other job candidates if you’re an employee or the competition of you’re a company. It only looked irrelevant because opportunities were everywhere during ZIRP, but good times never last.

It mattered to pass through the interview, but not for the job itself. With all leetcode geniuses in Microsoft why Teams and Windows are so shitty?

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#223
post #201
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a few things to note here: 1) Prices aren't returning to "normal". The only way they will is if the hyperscalers and AI companies start to implode -- which will kill a huge portion of the US economy and lead to global recession, so, cheap RAM but nobody can afford it 2) By building up capacity you influence the outcome. If someone else enters the DRAM space, the duopoly has to actually start thinking about co…

> 1) Prices aren't returning to "normal". > The only way they will is if the hyperscalers and AI companies start to implode -- which will kill a huge portion of the US economy and lead to global recession, so, cheap RAM but nobody can afford it RAM isn’t some commodity that gets mined at a fixed rate and therefore costs more when people want large amounts of it. It’s a manufactured good, made from raw materials that…

> at a profit at 2024 prices, even accounting for the capex needed to produce it

2024 prices were at a historical low, so we can't be sure that this is correct. Regardless, when production capacity is short-term constant, new RAM does get "mined" at a constant rate, a bit like bitcoin with its mining ASICs.

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#224

I had my formative years in programming when memory usage was something you still worried about as a programmer. And then memory expanded so much that all kinds of “optimal” patterns for programming just become nearly irrelevant. Will we start to actually consider this in software solutions again as a result?

RAM didn't get more expensive to produce. It just got more desirable. The prices will come down again when supply responds. It may take some time, but it will happen eventually.

RAM production is highly inelastic and controlled by an oligopoly. They have little desire to increase production considering the lead time and the risk that the AI demand might be transient.

They actively prefer keeping confortable margins than competing between each other. They have already been condemned for active collusion in the past.

New actors from China could shake things up a bit but the geopolitical situation makes that complicated. The market can stay broken for a long time.

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#225
post #9

I think Europe should invest into manufacturing RAM. RAM isn't going anywhere, all of modern compute uses it. This would be an opportunity to create domestic supply of it.

Europe needs to focus on energy and fixing their supply chain first. And the deregulation push keeps getting delayed. Just the other day the main person behind it in Germany got sacked because of internal power struggles, in part because of the Greens (part of the coalition).

For context, the German manufacturing sector is losing something like 15k jobs PER MONTH.

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#226
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is coming from an insane demand spike, not some nefarious plot by the RAM manufacturers.

Yes, it's a nefarious plot of AI producers to attempt a monopoly with a product that no one seems capable of demonstrating has the exponential value they're betting on.

AI companies yes, RAM manufacturers no.

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#227
post #9

I think Europe should invest into manufacturing RAM. RAM isn't going anywhere, all of modern compute uses it. This would be an opportunity to create domestic supply of it.

The worry is that these high prices aren't going to last long. And by the time you spend years building the capacity, the prices plummet making your facility uneconomical to run. Ram will always be in some demand, but that doesn't mean it's viable for everyone to start building production.

there is another industry that is not economical in EU but we still do it. Food production. Because its strategic decision. Not saying that RAM is of equal importance like food, but saying that if there is a will there is a way.

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#228

Maybe this RAMmageddon will trigger a wave of optimized softwares that don't need GBs of memory for anything and everything.

Let's see. A) Programmers will get their shit together and start shipping lean software. OR B) New laptops will become neutered thin clients, and all the heavy lifting will be done by cloud service providers. Which one seems more likely?

B sounds more likely because LLMs are already in the cloud and agents are thin clients

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#229
post #225
post #9

I think Europe should invest into manufacturing RAM. RAM isn't going anywhere, all of modern compute uses it. This would be an opportunity to create domestic supply of it.

Europe needs to focus on energy and fixing their supply chain first. And the deregulation push keeps getting delayed. Just the other day the main person behind it in Germany got sacked because of internal power struggles, in part because of the Greens (part of the coalition). For context, the German manufacturing sector is losing something like 15k jobs PER MONTH.

The Greens are not part of the current government.

What are you talking about?

Re: RAM now represents 35 percent of bill of materials for HP PCs

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RAM didn't get more expensive to produce. It just got more desirable. The prices will come down again when supply responds. It may take some time, but it will happen eventually.

RAM production is highly inelastic and controlled by an oligopoly. They have little desire to increase production considering the lead time and the risk that the AI demand might be transient. They actively prefer keeping confortable margins than competing between each other. They have already been condemned for active collusion in the past. New actors from China could shake things up a bit but the geopolitical situat…

They are increasing production as fast as they can (which is not fast at all, it's more like slowly steering a huge ship towards the correct direction) because current prices are too high even when accounting for the historical oligopoly dynamics. They can easily increase their collective profits by making more.
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