Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter • Hacker News Board

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#221

Post by jongjong » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 10:03 AM UTC

I cannot comprehend why there are so few companies dominating the payments sector. It doesn't seem competitive. Anyone can build a payment processor, nobody can get regulatory approval.

I also don't understand the fear around SaaS recently... People believe some weird narrative about AI replacing SaaS apps... Oh boy, people actually think that building the thing is the hard part. The entire software industry is pure crony-play; the people who run the big corporations own shares of their SaaS providers so they have no incentive to cut those contracts. Same with payment processors. I can't believe people still think we have a free market.

You can point to any company that's successful and there will be conflicts of interest all over the place. It doesn't even matter what the company does TBH. It's irrelevant.

People are just competing on who can make the money move around in circles within their group the fastest. Money certainly seems a lot more abundant when it passes through many hands and people are just buying stuff from each other.

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#222

Post by valzam » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 10:07 AM UTC

christkv wrote: post #118

jez wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paypal TPV YoY growth for 2025 was 7%[1]. Stripe cites 34% growth for the same period and metric. [1]: https://s205.q4cdn.com/875401827/files/doc_financials/2025/q...

Thats not bad for a mature business like paypal

I mean it's not like Stripe was founded yesterday. Stripe: 2010 Paypal: 1998

I'd argue that 99% of the "internet gdp" happened after Stripe was founded

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#223

Post by zipy124 » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 10:07 AM UTC

syedkarim wrote: post #160

Visa is valued at $585B and Mastercard is valued at $444B. Is Stripe making more revenue per transaction than Visa and Mastercard?

valuation's are based on future returns, not current returns. If one believes they are growing and visa and mastercard aren't then the valuation might make a little more sense. (though I can't comment on the actualities, only the potentials).

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#224

Post by alexmorley » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 10:19 AM UTC

jongjong wrote: post #221

I cannot comprehend why there are so few companies dominating the payments sector. It doesn't seem competitive. Anyone can build a payment processor, nobody can get regulatory approval. I also don't understand the fear around SaaS recently... People believe some weird narrative about AI replacing SaaS apps... Oh boy, people actually think that building the thing is the hard part. The entire software industry is pure…

> "anyone can build a payment processor, nobody can get regulatory approval."

If you want to become a bank regulatory approval is hard. If you don't then its necessary but not the biggest barrier by far. Building trust with card networks, merchants & banks, interfacing with card networks, optimizing acceptance rates to a high level against the black box of card networks etc.

And then you still wouldn't make any money because the margins are extremely low on processing payments themselves - so either you have to have massive scale or have a bunch of value added services that you charge more for. For which you also need a serious commercial engine to be able to sell to either loads of enterprises or some very large ones (who will rarely sign exclusive deals - they will just give you a share of wallet so they can transfer traffic over at will).

Card networks are another story...

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#225

Post by sensanaty » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 10:23 AM UTC

coldpie wrote: post #55

jameskilton wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stripe has been doing annual tender offers. Their stance on not being public yet is that they don't need to be, as an IPO is mainly a way to raise money. As an ex-Stripe, I understand the sentiment, and the tender offers are a nice middle ground for now, but I still would like to see them go public eventually.

Going public is the fastest way to turn a solid, functioning business into a hideous, infinite-growth chasing ghoul that everyone hates. Don't do it.

And VCs are what, patient angels who invest their money out of the goodness of their hearts expecting no returns?

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#226

Post by rco8786 » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 11:57 AM UTC

aliljet wrote: post #25

The public can absolutely participate in this by way of syndication deals. Those syndicates are what's covering up the true extent of ownership and they're essentially charging for access with their fees. It's oddly shady, poorly regulated, and more expensive than just being public, but everyone can ride this ride.

Not really. You still have to be an accredited investor AND financially savvy enough to have the awareness of what syndicate deals are and how to find them and participate.

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#227

Post by yanosc » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 12:04 PM UTC

rprend wrote: post #193

Centigonal wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it's not exactly a fair comparison, since they're comparing a volume number with GDP, which is total value produced in a year. Volume numbers are usually much bigger than production numbers, since money moves around a lot. If I pay a restaurant $200 for dinner and my three friends each venmo me $50 for their share, then the exchanged volume was $350, but only $200 worth of value was generated.

Stripe doesn’t power money transfers, just commerce. So 100% of stripe volume is economic activity.

With all due respect, this comment demonstrates a misunderstanding of basic economic concepts. Gross domestic product is not simply “economic activity” but a measure of value creation. The mere movement of existing value through transactions does not, by itself, constitute economic production, which is why comparing transaction volume to GDP is misleading.

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#228

Post by DaedalusII » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 12:12 PM UTC

jongjong wrote: post #221

I cannot comprehend why there are so few companies dominating the payments sector. It doesn't seem competitive. Anyone can build a payment processor, nobody can get regulatory approval. I also don't understand the fear around SaaS recently... People believe some weird narrative about AI replacing SaaS apps... Oh boy, people actually think that building the thing is the hard part. The entire software industry is pure…

good question

i list for you the main problems with entering this space:

criminal liability for mistakes (AML rules), you have to manage fraud, the banks which are your custody providers will constantly try and shut you down, clients expect your service on day one to be equal to mastercard, your margins are almost nothing, it is one of the most competitive industries in the world, you need to go through central bank regulations/SEC equivalent every time you enter a new market, governments in countries like Vietnam or Bangladesh or China are actively hostile to your business model, and it is HYPER competitive. anything you do well, stripe/airwallex/etc will clone immediately

Airwallex is one of the most powerful stripe competitors and the CEO is a psychopath that seems like a tv parody of a silicon valley CEO. he has to be though because so many governments, banks, competitors etc are trying to crush him constantly.

note that stripe differentiates itself heavily on checkout technology, basically making the experience of paying for things easier for the consumer.

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#229

Post by walletdrainer » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 1:07 PM UTC

rco8786 wrote: post #226

aliljet wrote: post #25

The public can absolutely participate in this by way of syndication deals. Those syndicates are what's covering up the true extent of ownership and they're essentially charging for access with their fees. It's oddly shady, poorly regulated, and more expensive than just being public, but everyone can ride this ride.

Not really. You still have to be an accredited investor AND financially savvy enough to have the awareness of what syndicate deals are and how to find them and participate.

> You still have to be an accredited investor

Which means that you have to be able to repeat after me “I am an accredited investor”, that’s the actual full list of requirements.

Re: Stripe valued at $159B, 2025 annual letter

#230

Post by trollbridge » Wed, Feb 25, 2026, 1:28 PM UTC

rprend wrote: post #134

hwhehwhehegwggw wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why will a number blow your mind? Have you thought about how Universe exists from nothing?

I find it inspiring. I relate to the Collison brothers. They're a couple of hackers from Ireland. It blows my mind that a couple young guys like that can build something and in 20 years capture 2% of the entire world's economic activity.

They haven’t captured 2% of global economic activity any more than Visa has captured 30%.