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The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

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Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#221

Post by randomNumber7 »

9dev wrote: post #192
3kkdd wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ermmm what? He and his personality caused people like Ilya to leave. At that point the failure risk of OAI jumped tremendously. The reality he will have to face is, he has caused OAIs demise. Perhaps hes ok with that as long as OAI goes down with him. Would expect nothing less from him.

All this drama is mostly irrelevant outside a very narrow and very online community. The demise of OpenAI is rooted in the bad product market fit, since many people like using ChatGPT for free, but fewer are ready to pay for it. And that’s pretty much all there is to it. OpenAI bet on consumers, made a slopstagram that unsurprisingly didn’t revolutionise content, and doesn’t sell as many licenses as they would like.

Imo they'll soon make a lot of money with advertisement. Whenever chatgpt brings you to some website to buy a product they will get some share.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#222

Post by mcintyre1994 »

jt2190 wrote: post #10

Last paragraph is informative: > Anthropic relies heavily on a combination of chips designed by Amazon Web Services known as Trainium, as well as Google’s in-house designed TPU processors, to train its AI models. Google largely uses its TPUs to train Gemini. Both chips represent major competitive threats to Nvidia’s best-selling products, known as graphics processing units, or GPUs. So which leading AI company is goi…

That’s interesting, I didn’t know that about Anthropic. I guess it wouldn’t really make sense to compete with OpenAI and everyone else for Nvidia chips if they can avoid it.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#223

Post by randomNumber7 »

graemep wrote: post #168
leptons wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, Putin is probably the worst billionaire. Elon might be a close second though, or maybe it's a US politician if they actually are a billionaire.

Peter Thiel who thinks the Pope or Greta Thunberg might be the antichrist, and that freedom is incompatible with democracy https://www.nationalmemo.com/peter-thiel-antichrist

I think you did not understand his argument. He said it is a great danger that people might unite behind an antichrist like figure.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#224

Post by nicman23 »

baq wrote: post #219
nicman23 wrote: post #210

the biggest imo indicator that it is gonna pop was dram makers not promising to expand production

Nothing wrong with not wanting to go bankrupt if the bubble pops. It isn’t an indicator, it’s risk management.

which is itself an indicator

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#225

Post by dandelionv1bes »

chihuahua wrote: post #98
pinnochio wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the manipulation and lying that got him fired.

He is a pretty interesting case. According to the book "Empire of AI" about OpenAI, he lies constantly, even about things that are too trivial to matter. So it may be part of some compulsive behavior. And when two people want different things from him, he "resolves" the conflict by agreeing with each of them separately, and then each assumes they got what they wanted, until they talk to the other person and find out…

Saw Empire of AI in a bookshop recently but held off buying as wasn’t sure if it was going to be surface level. You’d recommend?

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#226

Post by randomNumber7 »

ulfw wrote: post #148
jjcm wrote: post #19

Not only has OpenAI's market share gone down significantly in the last 6mo, Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models[1]. An alliance with OpenAI just makes less sense today than it did 6mo ago. [1] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/open-models-data-tools-acceler...

And the whole AI craze is becoming nothing but a commodity business where all kinds of models are popping in and out, one better this update, the other better the next update etc. In short - they're basically indistinguishable for the average layman. Commodity businesses are price chasers. That's the only thing to compete on when product offerings are similar enough. AI valuations are not setup for this. AI Valuation…

When you have more users you get more data to improve your models. The bet is that one company will be able to lock in to this and be at the top constantly.

I'm not saying this is what will happen, but people obviously bet a lot of money on that.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#227

Post by 9dev »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #167
vessenes wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, they tried. They just tried and failed. It may work out for them, though — two years ago it looked like lift-off was likely, or at least possible, so having a frontier model was existential. Today it looks like you might be able to save many billions by being a fast follower. I wouldn’t be surprised if the lift-off narrative comes back around though; we still have maybe a decade until we really understand the…

I think you are right. Their generative AI was clearly underwhelming. They have been losing many staff from their AI team. I’m not sure it matters though. They just had a stonking quarter. iPhone sales are surging ahead. Their customers clearly don’t care about AI or Siri’s lacklustre performance.

> Their customers clearly don’t care about AI or Siri’s lacklustre performance.

I would rather say their products didn’t just loose in value for not getting an improvement there. Everyone agrees that Siri sucks, but I’m pretty sure they tried to replace it with a natural language version built from the ground up, and realised it just didn’t work out yet: yes, they have a bad, but at least kinda-working voice assistant with lots of integrations into other apps. But replacing that with something that promises to do stuff and then does nothing, takes long to respond, and has less integrations due to the lack of keywords would have been a bad idea if the technology wasn’t there yet.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#228

Post by superjan »

breput wrote: post #41
sailingparrot wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models Nvidia has always had its own family of models, it's nothing new and not something you should read too much into IMHO. They use those as template other people can leverage and they are of course optimized for Nvidia hardware. Nvidia has been training models in the Megatron family as well as many others since at least 2019 which was us…

Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B[0][1] is a very impressive local model. It is good with tool calling and works great with llama.cpp/Visual Studio Code/Roo Code for local development. It doesn't get a ton of attention on /r/LocalLLaMA but it is worth trying out, even if you have a relatively modest machine. [0] https://huggingface.co/nvidia/NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B... [1] https://huggingface.co/unsloth/Nemotron-3-Nano-3…

Oh those ghastly model names. https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/version

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#229

Post by ulfw »

randomNumber7 wrote: post #226
ulfw wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the whole AI craze is becoming nothing but a commodity business where all kinds of models are popping in and out, one better this update, the other better the next update etc. In short - they're basically indistinguishable for the average layman. Commodity businesses are price chasers. That's the only thing to compete on when product offerings are similar enough. AI valuations are not setup for this. AI Valuation…

When you have more users you get more data to improve your models. The bet is that one company will be able to lock in to this and be at the top constantly. I'm not saying this is what will happen, but people obviously bet a lot of money on that.

Problem is you can easily train one model on the other. And at the end of the day everyone has access to enough data in one way or another.

Re: The $100B megadeal between OpenAI and Nvidia is on ice

#230

Post by Turfie »

TheRoque wrote: post #40
jjcm wrote: post #19

Not only has OpenAI's market share gone down significantly in the last 6mo, Nvidia has been using its newfound liquid funds to train its own family of models[1]. An alliance with OpenAI just makes less sense today than it did 6mo ago. [1] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/open-models-data-tools-acceler...

Yeah. Even if OpenAI models were the best, I still wouldn't used them, given how the Sam Altman persona is despicable (constantly hyping, lying, asking for no regulations, then asking for regulations, leaked emails where founders say they just wanna get rich without any consideration of their initial "open" claims...). I know other companies are not better, but at least they have a business model and something to los…

I agree. Especially the whole Johny Ive and Altman's hype video in that coffee shop was absolutely disgusting. Oh how far their egos have been inflated, which leads to very bad decision making. Not to be trusted.
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