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Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

fourplex.net

221–230 of 260 posts

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. They are 100% tariffing all RAM. RAM is not made in the USA. This destroys all the AI companies, and more.

I don't understand why we don't just cut to the chase and elect the Joker in 2028. The same people will vote for him, and he won't be any worse for the country.

Again?

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#222

I'd see Chinese RAM manufacturers like CXMT filling the void left in the market for consumer-grade RAM modules, I appreciate they face challenges (like lack of access to cutting edge EUV machines), but the RAM just needs to be fast enough and affordable enough for the average user for these companies to make significant inroads into the market that Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix are abandoning to chase the AI server ma…

Their scale is simply too small to affect the market outside China, majority of their chips will be eaten up by HBM3 production with yet unknown yield rate. They are forbidden to buy foreign equipment beyond their current process node, which is already obsolete, die size is 40% bigger than Samsung, not to mention lithography, the big 3 are using EUV while they are stuck with lobotomized DUV. They can start making som…

Is EUV and latest&greatest nodes a necessity to create RAM? Especially consumer grade RAM?

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will grow exponentially and catch the western market unawares in 10-15 years with a sudden flood of cheap, effective chips. Just like everything else China makes. Electric vehicles for example.

Sure, if they've got production grade EUV, but right now they don't even have production grade DUV. I'm also sure they can go as far as 5nm like SMIC if they really wanted to, since it's strategic for China, but the cost would only be justified if the current cycle lasts long enough.

Continue to dismiss China at your own peril.

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, even if the market bursts, prices are already inflated. RAM manufacturers know that everything 5xed and they aren't likely going to rush out and drop the price levels to pre-expansion. Once the AI market bursts, you can expect slow and methodical decreases in price (if any). And that will ultimately buy China a lot of time to shove their ram into the market cutting ram manufacturers out of most non-US m…

Graphic cards prices normalized quite quickly after crypto boom. Before going nuts for AI training of course.

Those were driven up by scalpers during the crypto stuff. The manufacturers were still selling their cards for a reasonable amount, you just couldn't get one because scalpers and crypto farmers had bot armies gobbling up supplies.

The ram pricing is coming directly from manufacturers.

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Points out how "will never be financially viable to provide" is a completely BS argument in this context.

It isn't. I gave up on waiting and switched to starlink. The existence of starlink provides even less financial reward for for paying to wire up my house.

I'm not saying for you personally it is financially viable. I am saying that these companies have zero excuse to say that providing that service to every single American isn't financially viable. They were already paid to do that, and simply took the money and didn't provide the service. We could still hold them to account if there was any political will to do so.

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, the market may shrink some but it's also relative to alternatives that are also increasing. There's no advice in the article the market is shrinking or that pricing is causing it to. People leaving the market on this type of cost will likely be people that have VPS's as idle resources, like some forgotten subscription they don't use but never canceled because it's The comparison to 2000s telcom market does not…

$10 per year is extremely rare. $5 per month is common, and if it goes up to $10, a lot of people will still keep it if they're using it. The provider is still making the same money for the same cost on that pre–existing service, so they might not even choose to raise the price for old customers. They're only losing an opportunity cost, and different businesses weight that differently.

Correct, I agree and meant to say per month. I believe I saw $3.5/month as smallest offering on the original author’s website

I used to run a small shared hosting business in early 2000s and I’d never raise prices on low consumption users, was never worth the risk of them canceling their subscription

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#227
post #220

If everyone is being hit by the same cost issues, small VPS hosts just need to charge more to operate the same. Most small VPS hosts are dirt cheap and I don't think many people would be shocked if prices go up in this environment.

I doubt that. Some dirt-cheap VPS maybe too unreliable to run anything serious, that's why they sell that for dirt cheap. And their consumers generally won't complain about sudden server reboots, because that's what expected for the price. If they increase their prices, then many of their customers maybe better off just use Linode or DigitalOcean etc instead, as these vendors provides better guaranty on stability.

I’m just making a market assumption that DO needs to raise their prices as well. Everyone needs RAM.

Not sure what the lift might be, but in theory everything should be relatively similar in future state, just more expensive. This is basically a form of inflation.

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The last comparison I did was Hetzner offers 14x the performance per dollar Not including the faster SSD & included traffic

Is that based on their cloud or dedicated offering?

Cloud, dedicated is even cheaper

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will grow exponentially and catch the western market unawares in 10-15 years with a sudden flood of cheap, effective chips. Just like everything else China makes. Electric vehicles for example.

Sure, if they've got production grade EUV, but right now they don't even have production grade DUV. I'm also sure they can go as far as 5nm like SMIC if they really wanted to, since it's strategic for China, but the cost would only be justified if the current cycle lasts long enough.

Just before the ASML ban, China imported as many DUV machines as possible.

Re: Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts?

#230

RAM shortage or competent programmer shortage? Can't get a Linux box to idle (or even install) under 512M these days. Can't find a web developer worth a shit who doesn't think he needs a Python backend application server to print "Hello, world" when you could do this with a static page served with something like OpenBSD with two-digit RAM requirements. It's not the RAM that's changed; it's everyone around the RAM. A…

There are SoCs with 64 or 128 MB integrated, and people run reasonably complex stuff on it.

I still have 64 MB VPS (OpenVZ) which I use in production since 2012. It runs DNS, VPN, some logging stuff.

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