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Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

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Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#221

Post by bandrami »

edoceo wrote: post #195
gruez wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Open source models are available at highly competitive prices for anyone to use and are closing the gap to 6-8 months from frontier proprietary models. What happens when the AI bubble is over and developers of open models doesn't want to incinerate money anymore? Foundation models aren't like curl or openssl. You can't have maintain it with a few engineer's free time.

If the bubble is over all the built infrastructure would become cheaper to train on? So those open models would incenerate less? Maybe there is an increase of specialist models? Like after dot-com the leftovers were cheap - for a time - and became valuable (again) later.

No, if the bubble ends the use of all that built infrastructure stops being subsidized by an industry-wide wampum system where money gets "invested" and "spent" by the same two parties.

Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#222

Post by fHr »

mediaman wrote: post #166
quantum_state wrote: post #88

Viewed from historical perspective, big tech is really reaping the benefits of the intellectual wealth accumulated over many thousands of years by humanity collectively. This should be recognized to find a better path forward.

How? They are all losing tens of billions of dollars on this, so far. Open source models are available at highly competitive prices for anyone to use and are closing the gap to 6-8 months from frontier proprietary models. There doesn't appear to be any moat. This criticism seems very valid against advertising and social media, where strong network effects make dominant players ultra-wealthy and act like a tax, but th…

The other side of the market:

Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#223

Post by bandrami »

gruez wrote: post #184
derektank wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t the reason we have a public domain so that people aren’t in a perpetual debt to their intellectual forebears?

Copyrights last a very long time. Moreover nothing says it has to be open. The recipe to coke is still secret.

The recipe to Coca Cola is not copyrighted (recipes in general can't be) but is protected by trade secret laws, which can notionally last forever.

The recipe also isn't that much of a secret, they read it on the air on a This American Life episode and the Coca Cola spokesperson kind of shrugged it off because you'd have to clone an entire industrial process to turn that recipe into a recognizable Coke.

Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#224

Post by CrossVR »

gizmodo59 wrote: post #177
mediaman wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? They are all losing tens of billions of dollars on this, so far. Open source models are available at highly competitive prices for anyone to use and are closing the gap to 6-8 months from frontier proprietary models. There doesn't appear to be any moat. This criticism seems very valid against advertising and social media, where strong network effects make dominant players ultra-wealthy and act like a tax, but th…

Nvda is not the only exception. Private big names are losing money but there are so many public companies seeing the time of their life. Power, materials, dram, storage to name a few. The demand is truly high. What we can argue about is if AI is truly transforming lives of everyone, the answer is a no. There is a massive exaggeration of benefits. The value is not ZERO. It’s not 100. It’s somewhere in between.

I believe that eventually the AI bubble will evolve in a simple scheme to corner the compute market. If no one can afford high-end hardware anymore then the companies who hoarded all the DRAM and GPUs can simply go rent seeking by selling the computer back to us at exorbitant prices.

Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#226

Post by [deleted] »

seizethecheese wrote: post #5

> There’s an extremely hurtful narrative going around that my product, a revolutionary new technology that exists to scam the elderly and make you distrust anything you see online, is harmful to society The article is certainly interesting as yet another indicator of the backlash against AI, but I must say, “exists to scam the elderly” is totally absurd. I get that this is satire, but satire has to have some basis in…

[deleted]

Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#227

Post by digiown »

CrossVR wrote: post #224
gizmodo59 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvda is not the only exception. Private big names are losing money but there are so many public companies seeing the time of their life. Power, materials, dram, storage to name a few. The demand is truly high. What we can argue about is if AI is truly transforming lives of everyone, the answer is a no. There is a massive exaggeration of benefits. The value is not ZERO. It’s not 100. It’s somewhere in between.

I believe that eventually the AI bubble will evolve in a simple scheme to corner the compute market. If no one can afford high-end hardware anymore then the companies who hoarded all the DRAM and GPUs can simply go rent seeking by selling the computer back to us at exorbitant prices.

That makes no sense. If the bubble bursts, there will be a huge oversupply and the prices will fall. Unless all Micron, Samsung, Nvidia, AMD, etc all go bankrupt overnight, the prices won't go up when demand vanishes.

Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#229

Post by mikestorrent »

CrossVR wrote: post #224
gizmodo59 wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nvda is not the only exception. Private big names are losing money but there are so many public companies seeing the time of their life. Power, materials, dram, storage to name a few. The demand is truly high. What we can argue about is if AI is truly transforming lives of everyone, the answer is a no. There is a massive exaggeration of benefits. The value is not ZERO. It’s not 100. It’s somewhere in between.

I believe that eventually the AI bubble will evolve in a simple scheme to corner the compute market. If no one can afford high-end hardware anymore then the companies who hoarded all the DRAM and GPUs can simply go rent seeking by selling the computer back to us at exorbitant prices.

The demand for memory is going to result in more factories and production. As long as demand is high, there's still money to be made in going wide to the consumer market with thinner margins.

What I predict is that we won't advance in memory technology on the consumer side as quickly. For instance, a huge number of basic consumer use cases would be totally fine on DDR3 for the next decade. Older equipment can produce this; so it has value, and we may see platforms come out with newer designs on older fabs.

Chiplets are a huge sign of growth in that direction - you end up with multiple components fabbed on different processes coming together inside one processor. That lets older equipment still have a long life and gives the final SoC assembler the ability to select from a wide range of components.

https://www.openchipletatlas.org/

Re: Please don't say mean things about the AI I just invested a billion dollars in

#230

Post by mikestorrent »

compounding_it wrote: post #212
gruez wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Open source models are available at highly competitive prices for anyone to use and are closing the gap to 6-8 months from frontier proprietary models. What happens when the AI bubble is over and developers of open models doesn't want to incinerate money anymore? Foundation models aren't like curl or openssl. You can't have maintain it with a few engineer's free time.

Training is really cheap compared to the basically free inference being handed out by openai Anthropic Google etc. Spending a million dollars on training and giving the model for free is far cheaper than hundreds of millions of dollars spent on inference every month and charging a few hundred thousand for it.

Not sure I totally follow. I'd love to better understand why companies are open sourcing models at all.
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