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Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

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Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#221

Post by raddan »

binary132 wrote: post #210
CrossVR wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the myocarditis risk in young men is that they undergo exactly the same risk from the actual covid infection. And given the fact that it was already obviously going to be endemic it really wasn't much of a calculation. It was basically: You either roll the dice now or you roll the dice when you inevitably get covid.

some people might like to quantify the risks that may or may not be associated with both in order to make informed decisions unfortunately that line of reasoning was so censured that people started weaponizing it

I assume that you mean "censored" and not "censured" (different thing), but it was not, in fact, censored. It was entirely in the open.

However, the information was definitely not distilled effectively for the average layperson. I remember thinking at the time that the CDC was seriously ham-handed when it came to communicating with the general public. I even initially blamed the Trump administration, but when the Biden administration took over, they did not improve communication either. My conclusion since then is that the CDC is dominated by academic types--which is largely appropriate given their mission--but that they also put academic types in PR roles, which was a disaster.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#222

Post by [deleted] »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #98
zosima wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reduction in all-cause mortality was independent of covid deaths. Which seems to suggest that there was big differences between the groups other than the vaccination. This of course does not change that the vaccine seems mostly safe, but it definitely calls in to question whether the protection against covid death was vaccine-mediated or due to some other difference between the groups. Therefore this paper is mod…

A 25% reduction is huge, even if you account for the fact that people who get vaccines tend to be more health conscious to begin with, when you consider that outside of the very sick and very old Covid has a mortality rate under 1%.

[deleted]

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#223

Post by dghlsakjg »

turnsout wrote: post #69
laichzeit0 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, this is an observational study and when you get to the confounding part, they kind of shrug their shoulders and say “well, we included a bunch of covariates that should reduce make the bias go away”, but there’s no causal diagram so we have no idea how they reasoned about this. If you’ve read even something layman friendly like Pearl’s Book of Why you should be feeling nervous about this.

Are there really antivax people that would know the word "covariate?" That's gotta be a small Venn diagram overlap.

They might know the word. Understanding what it means in context is a different matter.

You see this all the time where people will pick up niche jargon and misapply it.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#224

Post by margalabargala »

dionian wrote: post #183
biophysboy wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Antivaxers surpisingly know quite a lot of lingo. What they lack is an understanding of experimental methods.

I'm fine with vaccines, i just dont want my kids to particpate in the experiemnt for a disease that they have 0% chance of dying from.

Which disease is that? I'm not aware of any disease that's commonly vaccinated against that has a 0% death rate in children.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#225

Post by pjc50 »

albeebe1 wrote: post #154

I've been using this prompt on articles that generate debate. Like microservices, or jwt's. It brings up some interesting points for this article... Look at this article and point out any wording that seems meant to push a certain viewpoint. Note anything important the author leaves out, downplays, or overstates, including numbers that seem cherry-picked or lack context. Clearly separate basic facts from opinions or…

Who would win, the combined efforts of the best scientists in the field, or innuendo from a fancy markov model?

You could at least paste the points here.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#226

Post by runako »

mberning wrote: post #216
runako wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> before aproving the vaccine, it has to pass a few trials to prove it's effective and safe In case this comment has you temporarily hallucinate like it did me, I just looked and was able to confirm what I remembered: the vaccines did undergo trials for efficacy and safety before being approved.

I think the part that people doubt is the highly compressed timeline for approval. Hard to anticipate long term effects when something has only been tested for a short period of time. Also during this time the pitch degraded from “you won’t get sick or spread the disease” to “well I still got sick, but it probably would have been worse without the vaccine”. It is actually crazy to think about in retrospect.

> during this time the pitch degraded from “you won’t get sick or spread the disease” to “well I still got sick, but it probably would have been worse without the vaccine”

This line of thinking is so odd to me. Would you have preferred communications to use inaccurate, outdated points for the sake of consistency?

When honest interlocutors learn more about something, they communicate details more accurately. What would you have suggested they do instead? Keep in mind that Covid-19 was as new to them as it was to the rest of the world, and they were also learning about it in real time.

> Hard to anticipate long term effects when something has only been tested for a short period of time

This also applies to Covid infections in immunologically naive people! The two choices were unvaccinated Covid exposure or vaccinated Covid exposure. It's folly to pretend an imagined third option of zero Covid exposure. Comparing to that fake third option does not make any sense.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#227

Post by Esophagus4 »

jquaint wrote: post #133
dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

Unfortunately, one of the only things that is proven to convince vaccine skeptics is when someone from their community dies of a preventable illness. This is a great book on this topic: https://www.amazon.com/Anti-vaxxers-How-Challenge-Misinforme...

Another thing that seemed to work is the unvaccinated getting sick themselves.

2/3 of the unvaccinated COVID patients who were admitted to hospital regretted their decision, declared they would promote the vaccine post-discharge, and declared they would get it post-discharge.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8950102/

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#228

Post by deepspace »

emtel wrote: post #198

From the paper: > The main causes of death were cancer (769 and 853 cases per million in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, respectively), external causes of mortality (493 and 597 cases per million, including, among others, unintentional injuries, such as transportation crashes, falls, and drownings, as well as suicides or self-inflicted injuries) and diseases of the circulatory system (282 and 367 cases per m…

I do not see any 'radical difference' in the numbers. Individuals who choose not to get vaccinated are likely to be less informed and more reckless in other aspects of managing their health and their lives in general, so the relatively small difference between the populations is perfectly understandable.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#229

Post by gopher_space »

zosima wrote: post #76
lesuorac wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid hospitalizations where half in the vaccinated group (as % of pop) than unvaccinated. That's extremely desirable when you're in a situation where you have do dedicate whole wings (and then some) of hospitals to a singular disease. Sure, it's not a silver bullet but it's at least stainless steel.

I am speaking about what the paper shows. There are other sources of evidence for efficacy. This paper is not a very strong source of evidence for efficacy due to some obvious uncontrolled difference between groups.

I wouldn't bother critiquing methodology without current, masters-level experience in the domain. I make incorrect assumptions when I'm even narrowly outside my own lane, and end up asking questions that clearly demonstrate e.g. my inability to parse fig. 4a.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#230

Post by bakies »

Lionga wrote: post #190
jandrese wrote: post #20

I have to admit I checked the author on this paper. No surprise it is from outside of the US. It's hard to imagine a US institution releasing a scientific study that directly contradicts the administration's viewpoints out of fear of reprisal via loss of funding or even shakedowns. I just hope this doesn't elicit some unhinged Truth Social post about evil Frenchmen trying to poison our bodies.

It goes the other way too. It's hard to imagine a {EU,German,whatever} institution releasing a scientific study that directly contradicts the administration's viewpoints out of fear of reprisal via loss of funding or even shakedowns.

This is specific to the Trump administration. Previous administrations actually took critique and updated policies and advice based on the critique.
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