I agree with your conclusion that this stuff will get locked down again over time.
I think there's also another major reason people don't like to ship desktop software, and that's the cost of support of dealing with outdated tools, it can be immense.
Ticket as raised, "Why is my broken?"
After several rounds of clarification, it's established they're using a 6-year old version that's hitting API endpoints that were first deprecated 3 years ago and finally now removed...
It's incredibly expensive to support multiple versions of products. On-prem / self host means you have to support several, but at least with web products it's expected they'll phone-home and nag to be updated and that there'll be someone qualified to do that update.
When you add runnable executable tooling, it magnifies the issue of how old that tooling gets.
Even with a support policy of not supporting versions older than , you'll waste a lot of customer support time dealing with issues only for it to emerge it's out-dated software.