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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#221
post #116
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy.

> It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy. Dot-com bubble all over again

Way bigger and deeper than that, there was some slack in the energy situation remaining at that point. Not any more.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#222
post #6

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#223
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And because it's become apparent that LLMs aren't converging on what's traditionally been understood as AGI. The promise of AGI is that you could prompt the LLM "Prove that the Riemann Hypothesis is either true or false" and the LLM would generate a valid mathematical proof. However, if you throw it into ChatGPT what you actually get is "Nobody else has solved this proof yet and I can't either." And that's the issue.…

When I ask Claude to debug something it goes through more or less the same steps I would have done to fine the bug. Add some logging, run tests, try an hypothesis... Until LLMs got popular, we would have called that reasoning skills. Not surpassing humans but better than many humans within a small context. I don't mean that I have a higher opinion about LLM intelligence than you do, but perhaps I have a lower opinion…

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#224
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

FSD would like a word

They have certainly tried to move the goalposts on this.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#225

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

Definitely. When I started doing Machine Learning in 2018, AI wasn't a next word predictor.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#226
post #6

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

Wow that is so dumb. Can these addicts think about anything else than profits?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

This is exactly why they will have an “expert panel” to make that determination. They wouldn’t make something up

What exactly is the criteria for "expert" they're planning to use, and whomst among us can actually meet a realistic bar for expertise on the nature of consciousness?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#228

> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO. This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by pu…

I think the stable coin company Tether is valued at 500 billion also.

Is the company valued at $500 billion or is the sum of the digital assets they’ve collateralised worth $500 billion?

Because if you buy the tokens you presumably do not own the company. And if you buy the company you hopefully don’t own the tokens - nor the assets that back the tokens.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teslas and Waymo’s drive better than the majority of humans already. Of course there are caveats there, but is driving really the yardstick you want to use?

>Teslas and Waymo’s drive better than the majority of humans already. In restricted settings. Yeah no fam. >but is driving really the yardstick you want to use? Yes, because it's an easy one, compared, say, to walking . But if you insist — let's use that.

Walking is going pretty well for robotics lately. Good luck with that take

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#230

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

as if an independent expert panel has no financial incentive to declare something AGI... yeah, this is gonna end well
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