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Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
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Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well your father can't buy a Waymo. Even if he could it wouldn't go very far, wouldn't work everywhere and would cost at least 2x a model 3 or Y. So there are at least several leads Tesla has. It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? This isn't Lyft vs Uber. A better comparison to Tesla FSD would be blue cruise, super cruise, drive pilot, god's eye, and every other consumer level 2 ADAS.
> It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? Because Tesla keeps claiming they'll have full autonomy "next year", year after year. In 2016 Tesla claimed every Tesla car being produced had "the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver" . That was a lie: https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com... By the end o…
Yes, I've heard this time and time again. It has nothing to do with the point I'm making. This is just stoking the flamewar.
If you want to compare Waymo and Tesla FSD from a technology standpoint and claim superiority of one over the other you can't use simple values like interventions per mile. It says very little. The solutions were designed for different purposes under different constraints. That's what engineers do. If Waymo was attempting to make consumer viable self driving vehicles they would have made very different decisions and likewise for Tesla if their only goal was taxi. That should be obvious to any technologist.
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#223[flagged]
Well your father can't buy a Waymo. Even if he could it wouldn't go very far, wouldn't work everywhere and would cost at least 2x a model 3 or Y. So there are at least several leads Tesla has. It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? This isn't Lyft vs Uber. A better comparison to Tesla FSD would be blue cruise, super cruise, drive pilot, god's eye, and every other consumer level 2 ADAS.
Also comma.ai.
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#224[flagged]
I would consider getting a Neuralink, because I think better doctors would be available to help make it successful, and I’m getting to the age where I don’t think I’ll be able to contribute much more; maybe having a prosthesis would make more opportunities available, especially given that AI will probably take my job before I could retrain to another occupation that could make similar money. Maybe I’d get the opportunity to go to Mars one day.
I think you can support the technologies behind these companies and respect that someone on the spectrum may be struggling with trying to do what’s right for themselves and the people of Earth as a whole, but has just made a shitload of bad decisions. Many of us struggling with mental health of us can empathize, even if we fully and wholeheartedly disagree on many things.
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
This metric says nothing about self driving capabilities. In fact, I'd argue that FSD supervising the driver (and doing things like limiting speed before corners) would make their cars safer. To me this metric shows that their cars are very high performing, and for most drivers they're probably the fastest accelerating cars they've ever driven. Tesla should probably default them to 'chill' mode and provide a warning…
It is fantastically optimistic to attribute Teslas horrific stats to the cars being speedy For instance the model y had a fatality rate of 10.6 per billion vehicle miles 4x the average. Its also seems unreasonable to suppose that they are poorly suited to survive a crash as this doesn't seem to be indicated. A more logical conclusion is that a box with a giant flashing distracting tablet in the center which lies and…
Teslas also tend to attract people who hate driving and are bad at it. Yes, this is anecdotal, but - several friends and acquaintances said something along the lines of "my Tesla is the best, self-driving helps so much, I hate driving and I can't wait for them to fully automate it".
I wonder if segregating bad drivers into a separate population affects those fatality statistics.
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#226[flagged]
Well your father can't buy a Waymo. Even if he could it wouldn't go very far, wouldn't work everywhere and would cost at least 2x a model 3 or Y. So there are at least several leads Tesla has. It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? This isn't Lyft vs Uber. A better comparison to Tesla FSD would be blue cruise, super cruise, drive pilot, god's eye, and every other consumer level 2 ADAS.
Well because Elon Musk keeps making it. In January 2023, on the official Tesla earnings call, he said that FSD was currently overwhelmingly superior at autonomous driving than everything else in existence:
"So who do we think is close to Tesla with -- a general solution for self-driving? And we still don't even know really who would even be a distant second. So yes, it really seems like we're -- I mean, right now, I don't think you could see a second place with a telescope, at least we can't." [1]
That is a literal, direct, backward-looking statement about current capabilities comparing it to all existing systems. A backward-looking statement that is clearly and objectively false given their present day inability to safely deploy driverless vehicles which Waymo already achieved in 2022, let alone quantitative disengagement metrics demonstrating a level of capability between 10-100x worse than Waymo contemporaneously in 2022 [2] and inferior even to Waymo in 2015 [3]. A false statement made willingly and knowingly in official investor communications to maintain their stock price.
[1] https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/01/26/te...
[2] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2023/02/17/2022-disen...
[3] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2018/02/01/disengagem...
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#227I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly.
If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.
To be clear, at that order of magnitude they might make back their investment, but it won’t be 10x or 100x, and the potential healthy-brain-connected-to-the-AI play is much less rooted in reality than Teslas all becoming taxis.
Worst case scenario is that Elon loses interest and pulls the plug and Mr Arbaugh loses continued tech support a la a google product. I think that’s the one question I wish the author had asked…
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? Because Tesla keeps claiming they'll have full autonomy "next year", year after year. In 2016 Tesla claimed every Tesla car being produced had "the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver" . That was a lie: https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com... By the end o…
Yes, I've heard this time and time again. It has nothing to do with the point I'm making. This is just stoking the flamewar. If you want to compare Waymo and Tesla FSD from a technology standpoint and claim superiority of one over the other you can't use simple values like interventions per mile. It says very little. The solutions were designed for different purposes under different constraints. That's what engineers…
You started with "Why is anyone..." and you got your answer - the founder and promoter of the technology has been on record lying about it multiple times. There's lawsuits about it. Steelmanning Tesla's position makes no sense here.
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#229Too much marketing speak without the demo. I have read this long article and did read some more related content on the internet, so let me summarize it for you.
With Neuralink,
- Noland can control cursor of his computer - He can schedule calendar meetings - He can control his purifier, television, etc. - He can play games like mario kart
I could only find this demo on the internet where Noland plays chess - https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1ypJdkXjaLNGW
Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's a horrible comparison. Why do people keep making it? Because Tesla keeps claiming they'll have full autonomy "next year", year after year. In 2016 Tesla claimed every Tesla car being produced had "the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver" . That was a lie: https://web.archive.org/web/20161020091022/https://tesla.com... By the end o…
Yes, I've heard this time and time again. It has nothing to do with the point I'm making. This is just stoking the flamewar. If you want to compare Waymo and Tesla FSD from a technology standpoint and claim superiority of one over the other you can't use simple values like interventions per mile. It says very little. The solutions were designed for different purposes under different constraints. That's what engineers…
By definition if you aim to get autonomous that means you aim for zero or at least a very low intervention per mile. Tesla boast about that but doesn't provide.