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US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

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Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion! Wouldn't that just mean that Taiwan has to choose between two villains, and China can take the advantage of this by changing its narrative and taking the position as a hero, protecting Taiwan from the US.

Taiwan really, really does not want to be part of China. Or rather, they see themselves as the legitimate government of China, which is undergoing a temporary Communist junta. The separation was extremely violent. I mean, you saw the Three Body Problem. The US fosters this, to retain a toehold there. Taiwan doesn't exactly love us for it, but they know which side their bread is buttered on.

> they see themselves as the legitimate government of China

No, they don't. But formally renouncing that position[1] makes them officially secessionist in the eyes of Chinese conservatives, adding pressure to invade. The One China fiction matters, though how much it matters is definitely up for debate. But it's a local minima, and rolling the dice comes with significant risk.

[1] At the state level. AFAIU, it's been renounced by several of the major parties in Taiwan, and when in power they've made movements at low levels of government that arguably contravene the policy. But it still remains the official position and its still enshrined in the Taiwanese constitution. And, yes, the US adds pressure to maintain the status quo as it would (might?[2]) be on the hook for the defense of Taiwan. But the majority of the population isn't in favor of formally renouncing it, either; the potential negative consequences are existential, and the material benefit is slim to none.

[2] During Trump's first term it was claimed he privately admitted that if China invaded Taiwan he wouldn't intervene.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#222
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how it can't work at least short term, when the US is by a long margin the world leading military and economic power. Why else has the US been overspending on military for decades and planting military bases and nuclear submarines all over the world, to become the world hegemony, if not to bully everyone in doing its bidding when push comes to shove? I'm not defending the actions of the US, I'm just askin…

When all your military spending can't help you win against a third-world country (USA in Afghanistan) or a single country 1/3 your size (Russia in Ukraine), it really makes you wonder if all that spending is justified to uphold one big bluff.

The Bush administration was looking to "win" in the Afghanistan by doing nation building, which was never going to work, and certainly wasn't going to be accomplished by military means. Obama and Trump both chose to kick the can the road, to not pay the political cost for "losing", Biden ended the conflict, and paid the political price.

But if the US had a different objectives, every human settlement in Afghanistan could have have been radioactive ash by September 12, 2001. Or, more realistically, the US could have gone in, killed all (for some value of all) the local elites as a warning to leaders elsewhere about the costs of harboring terrorists, and then immediately left the country in the same sort of chaos that they eventually did a couple of decades later. Kabul delenda est was always accomplishable.

The only people who should be ashamed of the their performance in Ukraine are the Russians, and the Europeans, for failing to be able deter or respond to the Russia on their own despite having an economy five times the size.

US interests are perfectly well served by seeing the Russian military mauled for a generation at the cost of aid, much of it material that was going to be decommissioned anyway, that costs roughly what Americans spend on golf in a given year (Once you throw in the costs of drinks on the 19th hole.)

Anyway, US arms sales are up since the start of the conflict, Russian sales have cratered.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#223
post #68
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ... American consumers will end up paying the tariffs This has always been the case. I have never heard of a company absorbing tariffs on behalf of consumers in the day and age of "trickle down economics".

So far indications are many companies are eating the tariffs, for now. Even making them visible has drawn the ire of Trump a few times already. But I generally agree that it can't go on forever / not how it works historically.

I'm actually surprised that some prices are even lower now than they've previously been.

I don't think most people actually have a solid understanding of what is and is not affected by which tariffs.

If I understand correctly, most of the tech stuff is effectively exempt; and Canada/Mexico tariffs don't apply to most items that are covered under "the rules of origin" certifications under USMCA (the successor to NAFTA).

I think the biggest hit has been the elimination of the de minimis rule, which now makes it difficult and/or impossible to get anything directly from China by USPS, be that cheap clothing or small electronics.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m convinced that this is all what it looks like to live through the end of an empire (or whatever term you’d like). It feels to me like it's more like the beginning of an empire, in the sense of existing under an emperor. > I think our lives are short enough that it can be easy to perceive something like America as “always was, always will be” and the rest is just trivia you learn in history class. I think it ver…

The US president has been an emperor in all but title for generations at least.

I think this will have been news to Biden and especially to Obama, who didn't even get the deference about the new suit.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#225
post #21

I'd tell the bully "no deal" if I don't get controlling interest, and thus full control of the board.

I'm not sure anyone but Intel is against that. Both US parties are most likely furious that the CHIPS act was a massive waste of money. TSMC would love to outright buy a massive US presence with valuable IP. The US desperately needs Intel to turn things around to remain a strategic advantage. Only Intel in their cesspool of hubris would want to keep the status quo of mediocrity.

But TSMC, please please please, get Intel out of Oregon. I'm so tired of that loser state holding back companies from reaching their true potential.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't blackmail. A security guarantee has value. Exactly what value is hard to say since the US is the only credible seller of such guarantees in this world order

Like with Ukraine? Like with Iran? The US has proven its word is literally worthless and beholden to the whims of a dictator. At this point, Taiwan would be foolish to not start working on a secret nuclear bomb program. North Korea has proven its the only way to actually protect yourself.

Yep. Nukes for Taiwan is the only solution.

Nuclear proliferation and subsequent war is inevitable imo.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#227
post #3

I'm kinda of shocked that chip & many tech companies play ball.. They are a required / no alternatives industry by so much of the USA, with limited alternatives. Is it really more cost-effective for each of these companies to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to avoid tariffs when they could easily pass on these costs because we have no alternatives?

Honestly, this is a win-win for TSMC. Intel isn't dead. They've made some bad choices and investments but they're still huge. They have $30 billion in gross profit per year on an utterly boring, non-hype based business model. Get rid of some dead weight, write off the bad investments, improve their foundry business and their value easily grows multiples of what it currently is. On top of it already being a shrewd bus…

I don't know if any of that is true. Even if it's true, why TSMC?

Will Apple, AMD, and nVidia continue to trust TSMC if it owns half of Intel?

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#228

Tariffs kinda make sense when you have a deficit in a widely available item. Big trade deficit with Bangladesh? Sure you can buy cheap textiles from Thailand or Vietnam or something. Unfortunately this approach does not work when you lack a viable domestic alternative and you're up against a monopoly. What will the US do if TSMC does not blink? Not buy TSMC made chips? Obviously that is impossible, so the logical con…

If there's one product we have domestic alternatives to it's semiconductors. We're a couple nodes behind TSMC. Using US only foundries or paying a premium for TSMC is not the end of the world.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not buy TSMC made chips? Obviously that is impossible Why do you think that? Trump clearly wants them to use Intel's 18A which is likely similar to TSMC 2 year old N3P, which is not an impossible option.

The same 18A that their CEO is axing? https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/intels-new-...

18A is not getting axed, they'll use it.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US president has been an emperor in all but title for generations at least.

I think this will have been news to Biden and especially to Obama, who didn't even get the deference about the new suit.

If you think Obama wasn't overseeing an empire, I don't know what to tell you. Maybe you should ask the people of Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya about the US drone strikes there.
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