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Can you expand on your argument?
There is a reason why companies throw billions into AI and still are not profitable. They must be the first ones to hook the users in the long run and make service necessary part of user’s life. And then increase the price.
I have a good example of how sometimes AI/LLM can write very very inefficient code: https://nullonerror.org/2025/07/12/ai-will-replace-programme...
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Can you expand on your argument?
I don't think it's subscriptions so much as consumer startup pricing strategies: Netflix/Hulu were "losing money on streaming"-level cheap. Uber was "losing money on rides"-level cheap. WeWork was "losing money on real-estate" level cheap. Until someone releases wildly profitable LLM company financials it's reasonable to expect prices to go up in the future. Course, advances in compute are much more reasonable to exp…
Eventually, these things should get closer. Eventually the hosted solutions have to make money. Then we’ll see if the costs of securing everything and paying some tech company CEO’s wage are higher than the benefits of centrally locating the inference machines. I expect local running will win, but the future is a mystery.
> Gemini 2.5 PRO | Claude Opus 4 Whether it's vibe coding, agentic coding, or copy pasting from the web interface to your editor, it's still sad to see the normalization of private (i.e., paid) LLM models. I like the progress that LLMs introduce and I see them as a powerful tool, but I cannot understand how programmers (whether complete nobodies or popular figures) dont mind adding a strong dependency on a third part…
The models I can run locally aren't as good yet, and are way more expensive to operate. Once it becomes economical to run a Claude 4 class model locally you'll see a lot more people doing that. The closest you can get right now might be Kimi K2 on a pair of 512GB Mac Studios, at a cost of about $20,000.
Total newb here.
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I was a hardcore vim user 10 years ago, but now I just use PyCharm to work. I'm paid to solve problems, not to futz around with vim configs. Can you make vim work roughly the same way? Probably you can get pretty close. But how many hours do I have to sink into the config? A lot. And suddenly the PyCharm license is cheap. And it's exactly the same thing with LLMs. You want hand crafted beautiful code, untainted by AI…
> I was a hardcore vim user 10 years ago, but now I just use PyCharm to work. I'm paid to solve problems, not to futz around with vim configs. The reason I don't like those arguments is that they merge two orthogonal stuff: Solving problems and optimizing your tooling. You can optimize PyCharm just as much you can fiddle with Vim's config. And people are solving with problems with Vim just as you do with an IDE. It's…
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Have you considered the Framework Desktop setup they mentioned in their announcement blog post[0]? Just marketing fluff, or is there any merit to it? > The top-end Ryzen AI Max+ 395 configuration with 128GB of memory starts at just $1999 USD. This is excellent for gaming, but it is a truly wild value proposition for AI workloads. Local AI inference has been heavily restricted to date by the limited memory capacity an…
I love Framework but it's still not enough IMO. My time is the most valuable thing, and a subscription to $paid_llm_of_choice is _cheap_ relative to my time spent working. In my experience, something Llama 3.3 works really well for smaller tasks. For "I'm lazy and want to provide minimal prompting for you to build a tool similar to what is in this software package already", paid LLMs are king. If anything, I think th…
In the mid to long term the question is, is the subscription covering the costs of the LLM provider. Current costs might not be stable for long.
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I personally can’t wait for programming to ‘die’. It has stolen a decade of my life minimum. Like veterinarians being trained to help pets ultimately finding out a huge portion of the job is killing them. I was not sufficiently informed that I’d spend a decade arguing languages, dealing with thousands of other developers with diverging opinions, legacy code, poorly if at all maintained libraries, tools, frameworks, e…
Feel free to change careers and get lost, no one is forcing you to be a programmer. If you feel it is stealing your life, then please feel free to reclaim your life at any time. Leave the programming to those of us who actually want to do it. We don't want you to be a part of it either
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> Once it becomes economical to run a Claude 4 class model locally you'll see a lot more people doing that. Historically these sorts of things happened because of Moores law. Moores law is dead. For a while we have scaled on the back of "more cores", and process shrink. It looks like we hit the wall again. We seem to be near the limit of scaling (physics) we're not seeing a lot in clock (some but not enough), and IPC…
Model efficiency is outpacing Moore's law. That's what DeepSeek V3 was about. It's just we're simultaneously finding ways to use increase model capacity, and that's growing even faster...
Moores law is dead, has been for along time. There is nothing to outpace.
> That's what DeepSeek V3 was about.
This would be a foundational shift! What problem in complexity theory was solved that the rest of computing missed out on?
Don't get me wrong MOE is very interesting but breaking up one large model into independent chunks isn't a foundational breakthrough its basic architecture. It's 1960's time sharing on unix basics. It's decomposition of your application basics.
All that having been said, there is a ton of room for these sorts of basic, blood and guts engineering ideas to make systems more "portable" and "usable". But a shift in thinking to small, targeted and focused will have to happen. Thats antithetical to everything in one basket throw more compute at it and magically we will get to AGI. That clearly isnt the direction the industry is going... it wont give any one a moat, or market dominance.
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When I need a facial tissue I ask for a Kleenex even if the box says Puffs. Because who says "pass me the Puffs"?
I've been curious of that phenomenon, why not juat ask "pass me a tissue?"
I have a good example of how sometimes AI/LLM can write very very inefficient code: https://nullonerror.org/2025/07/12/ai-will-replace-programme...
Similarly, AI is really bad at code golf. You’d think it would be great, able to know all the little secrets but nope. It needs verbose code.