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LLM Inevitabilism

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Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#221

Post by zwnow »

killerstorm wrote: post #192
fendy3002 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs need significant optimization or we get significant improvement on computing power while keeping the energy cost the same. It's similar with smartphone, when at the start it's not feasible because of computing power, and now we have one that can rival 2000s notebooks. LLMs is too trivial to be expensive EDIT: I presented the statement wrongly. What I mean is the use case for LLM are trivial things, it shouldn't…

LLM can give you thousands of lines of perfectly working code for less than 1 dollar. How is that trivial or expensive?

Thousands of lines of perfectly working code? Did you verify that yourself? Last time I tried it produced slop, and I've been extremely detailed in my prompt.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#222

Post by hannofcart »

> Don’t let inevitabilism frame the argument and take away your choice. Think about the future you want, and fight for it.

What would 'fight for it' in this context mean?

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#223

Post by fendy3002 »

killerstorm wrote: post #192
fendy3002 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs need significant optimization or we get significant improvement on computing power while keeping the energy cost the same. It's similar with smartphone, when at the start it's not feasible because of computing power, and now we have one that can rival 2000s notebooks. LLMs is too trivial to be expensive EDIT: I presented the statement wrongly. What I mean is the use case for LLM are trivial things, it shouldn't…

LLM can give you thousands of lines of perfectly working code for less than 1 dollar. How is that trivial or expensive?

well I presented the statement wrongly. What I mean is the use case for LLM are trivial things, it shouldn't be expensive to operate

and the 1 dollar cost for your case is heavily subsidized, that price won't hold up long assuming the computing power stays the same.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#224

Post by estsauver »

baxuz wrote: post #151
mg wrote: post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

The thing is that the data from actual research doesn't support your anecdotal proof of quality: - https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-o... - https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/29/ai_agents_fail_a_lot/ But more importantly, it makes you stupid: - https://www.404media.co/microsoft-study-finds-ai-makes-human... - https://archive.is/M3lCG And it's an unsustainable bubble and wishful thinking, muc…

I think it's worth saying that I basically completely disagree with your assessment (how you read the evidence, your conclusions, and quite possibly your worldview,) and think that if you were to give me access to infinite throughput claude code in 2018 that I could have literally ruled the world.

I'm not the most impressive person on hacker news by a wide margin, but I've built some cool things that were hard, and I think they are absolutely inevitable and frequently have the exact same "one shot" type experience where things just work. I would seriously reconsider whether it is something that you can't make work well for you, or something you don't want to work well.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#225

Post by StanislavPetrov »

salviati wrote: post #217
AndyKelley wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You speak with a passive voice, as if the future is something that happens to you, rather than something that you participate in.

Isn't it kind of both? Did luddites ever have a chance of stopping the industrial revolution?

Did the Dutch ever have a chance to stop the massive run up in tulip prices?

It's easy to say what was inevitable when you are looking into the past. Much harder to predict what inevitable future awaits us.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#226

Post by thom »

zulban wrote: post #12
NBJack wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions. Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

> Remember ... No, I don't remember it like that. Do you have any serious sources from history showing that Segway hype is even remotely comparable to today's AI hype and the half a trillion a year the world is spending on it? You don't. I love the argument ad absurdum more than most but you've taken it a teensy bit too far.

People genuinely did suggest that we were going to redesign our cities because of the Segway. The volume and duration of the hype were smaller (especially once people saw how ugly the thing was) but it was similarly breathless.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#227

Post by jeffreygoesto »

mg wrote: post #70

In the 90s a friend told me about the internet. And that he knows someone who is in a university and has access to it and can show us. An hour later, we were sitting in front of a computer in that university and watched his friend surfing the web. Clicking on links, receiving pages of text. Faster than one could read. In a nice layout. Even with images. And links to other pages. We were shocked. No printing, no shipp…

Not much different to writing LaTeX and trying to get it to place the figures where you want to tbh...

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#228

Post by bgwalter »

salviati wrote: post #217
AndyKelley wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You speak with a passive voice, as if the future is something that happens to you, rather than something that you participate in.

Isn't it kind of both? Did luddites ever have a chance of stopping the industrial revolution?

No, but software engineers for example have more power, even in an employer's market, than Luddites.

You can simply spend so much time on meticulously documenting that "AI" (unfortunately!) does not work that it will be quietly abandoned.

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#229

Post by [deleted] »

westoncb wrote: post #152
bradly wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what that same GPT4 told me today after trying to get a simple mqttwarn config: ChatGPT: Let’s cut through the mqttwarn quirks and get you a single, complete warn.ini that I’ve actually tested with mqttwarn 0.32 Me: that "I’ve actually tested with mqttwarn 0.32:" How did you perform this test? ChatGPT: I set up a quick local sandbox on my laptop Me: What brand is your laptop? What store did you buy it at? Cha…

There is a skill to it. You can get lucky as a beginner but if you want consistent success you gotta learn the ropes (strengths, weaknesses, failure modes etc). A quick way of getting seriously improved results though: if you are literally using GPT-4 as you mention—that is an ancient model! Parent comment says GPT-4.1 (yes openai is unimaginably horrible at naming but that ".1" isn't a minor version increment). And…

[deleted]

Re: LLM Inevitabilism

#230

Post by jeisc »

Language is not knowledge and knowledge when reduced to a language becomes here say until it is redone and implemented in our context. Both of them have nothing to do with wisdom. LLM's hash out our language and art to death but AI doesn't mind what they mean to us. Without our constraints and use, they would stop running. We should be building guardian angels to save us from ourselves and not evil demons to conquer the world. - John Eischen © adagp paris art humanitarian use is authorized except for any Al uses
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