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François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

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Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#221

Post by ltbarcly3 »

layer8 wrote: post #148
ltbarcly3 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I addressed the entire concept of the talk, and made other relevant points. The correct response to "let me tell you something I can't possibly know" isn't to argue the points within that frame. If you see a talk like: "How we will develop diplomacy with the rat-people of TRAPPIST-5." you don't have to make some argument about super-earths and gravity and the rocket equation. You can just point out it's absurd to pre…

Did you actually watch the talk? The flagging is probably due to your aggressively indignant style.

I'm not indignant, I'm dismissive. And I explain very carefully why so that someone else can rip what I say to shreds.

Or they can flag it, and mommy will make the mean man stop disagreeing during nap time.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#222

Post by jxjnskkzxxhx »

qoez wrote: post #4

I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI. It's mostly about pattern matching (and some of it ambiguous even for humans what the actual true response aught to be). It's like how in humans there's lots of different 'types' of intelligence, and just overfitting on IQ tests doesn't in my mind convince me a person is actually that smart.

> I feel like I'm the only one who isn't convinced getting a high score on the ARC eval test means we have AGI

Francois explicitly says that's not how ARC is supposed to be interpreted.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#223

Post by jxjnskkzxxhx »

EigenLord wrote: post #175

I've been thinking lately about how AGI runs up against the No Free Lunch Theorem. This is what irritates me: science is not determining the narrative. Money is. I highly recommend mathematician David Wolpert's work on the topic. I think he inadvertently proved that ASI is physically impossible. Certainly he proved that AOI (artificial omniscient intelligence) is impossible. One thing he showed is that you can't have…

TIL there actually is something called "no free lunch in search and optimization"[1].

See however that the theorem is quite weak. Requires eg the assumption that the search space has no structure. They even have the example of quadratic problems. It's mostly a useless saying, it appears to me.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_free_lunch_in_search_and_...

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#224

Post by jxjnskkzxxhx »

fragmede wrote: post #177
EigenLord wrote: post #175

I've been thinking lately about how AGI runs up against the No Free Lunch Theorem. This is what irritates me: science is not determining the narrative. Money is. I highly recommend mathematician David Wolpert's work on the topic. I think he inadvertently proved that ASI is physically impossible. Certainly he proved that AOI (artificial omniscient intelligence) is impossible. One thing he showed is that you can't have…

When hasn't money determined the narrative?

Ironically, you missed the point. The person you're responding to is saying the opposite: the narrative (that there is something unique about how our brain solves problems) determines the money (invested).

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#225

Post by esbranson »

> As long as it's easy to come up with tasks that any one of you can do, that are easy for humans, but that AI cannot figure out … we don't have AGI yet. And you will know you are close to having AGI when it becomes increasingly difficult to come up with such tasks.

Man I don't know. A random 10 year old has general intelligence and ain't gonna do too well on these tests. AGI is not consciousness, I feel like that also gets confused, and general intelligence is not superhuman intelligence.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#226

Post by bogtog »

krackers wrote: post #169
bogtog wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the top performer afaik (ChatGPT o3) is still treating ARC as a series of characters. I imagine complex reasoning in multimodal processing wouldn't be nearly as advanced so treating it as characters is still better

interesting, I thought one of the whole points of o3 was mixed multimodal reasoning (e.g. everyone doing those geoguesser challenges). But maybe that's just a parlor trick and it's not actually implemented that way. I wonder when they're going to extend chain-of-thought to work with image tokens, seems like that'd help for solving spatial challenges like this.

I can't speak to whether it is a parlor trick, but my gut is that processing a 30x30 grid isn't really representative of o3's image processing. This tiny grid isn't like any image it would encounter normally and is so short that the benefits of language processing outweight the downsides.

I expect that for a much larger images (e.g., 300x300 grids) and for problems simpler than ARC, that o3's image processing would give it a lead over o3 processing a very long character stream.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#227

Post by thatguy0900 »

hollerith wrote: post #159
lo_zamoyski wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true. We have a choice...in principle. But in practice, it's like stopping an arms race.

Which arms race? The nuclear arms race of the Cold War? That one got stopped.

It's hard to say the nuclear arms race is stopped when the US actively bombed a countries nuclear processing plants recently, and the US is also talking about building the Golden dome.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#228

Post by ltbarcly3 »

starchild3001 wrote: post #171
ltbarcly3 wrote: post #102

There is some kind of massive brigading happening on this thread. Lots of thoughtful comments are downmodded or flagged (including mine, which I thought was pretty thoughtful. I even said poop instead of shit.). https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44492241 My comment was basically instantly flagged. I see at least 3 other flagged comments that I can't imagine deserve to be flagged.

I've noticed that Hacker News has become increasingly strict with tone lately; almost to the point of aggressive "tone policing." It feels like you’re expected to maintain a very diplomatic tone: praise the author, acknowledge the strengths of the article or video, and only then, very carefully, offer any criticism. You can't just bash it, and not get downvoted :)

That this is downvoted to the point of being greyed out proves what it says is true.

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#229

Post by starchild3001 »

ltbarcly3 wrote: post #228
starchild3001 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've noticed that Hacker News has become increasingly strict with tone lately; almost to the point of aggressive "tone policing." It feels like you’re expected to maintain a very diplomatic tone: praise the author, acknowledge the strengths of the article or video, and only then, very carefully, offer any criticism. You can't just bash it, and not get downvoted :)

That this is downvoted to the point of being greyed out proves what it says is true.

I honestly don't feel motivated to write comments anymore. Just my $0.02. Feel free to gray this out as well :))

Re: François Chollet: The Arc Prize and How We Get to AGI [video]

#230

Post by [deleted] »

NetRunnerSu wrote: post #156
tsurba wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But are we close to doing that in real-time on any reasonably large model? I don’t think so.

This is not about reasoning , this is about continuous learning and perpetual learning . https://github.com/dmf-archive/PILF https://dmf-archive.github.io/docs/posts/beyond-snn-plausibl...

[deleted]
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