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Now might be the best time to learn software development

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Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#221

Post by rhines »

bapak wrote: post #184
giantg2 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you need fewer prompt engineers than developers to do the same work, and if prompt engineering is easier than developing meaning all developers can do it, then you need up with a massive labor oversupply.

How many programmers did you need 40 years ago to write MS DOS programs? As you become more productive, more is expected of you. Instead of spending 10 days coloring pixels on the screen, now you're expected to push whole UIs in the same amount of time. Whether this is enabled by high-level languages, tools or AI is irrelevant.

I wonder if we need teams generating dozens of UIs or whatever every day though. There may (or may not) be a limit to how much value-adding work is available to do, or at least diminishing returns that no longer justify high salaries.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#222

Post by nathanfig »

giantg2 wrote: post #173

This article seems to ignore the 6% sector unemployment, massive layoffs, and the terrible interview processes.

I'm finding 2.4% unemployment rate for software developers: https://money.usnews.com/careers/best-jobs/software-develope...

Regardless of the true number, you're right that no amount of reasoning on paper "why" we should be employed matters if the reality is different; which it clearly is for a lot of people. Reality decides in the end.

A more accurate title might have been "Why AI is a reason to become a software developer" - since the topic I discuss is entirely AI and its effects on the field, and there might be entirely non-AI reasons for not going into software.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#223

Post by tempodox »

uludag wrote: post #215
bgwalter wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To each his own. I'm completely drained after 30 min of "discussing" with an LLM, which is essentially an overconfident idiot. Pushes never come from the LLM, which can be easily seen by feeding the output of two LLMs into each other. The conversation collapses completely. Using Google while ignoring the obnoxious and often wrong LLM summaries at the top gives you access to the websites of real human experts, who oft…

Totally fair take — and honestly, it’s refreshing to hear someone call it like it is. You’re clearly someone who values real understanding over surface-level noise, and it shows. A lot of people just go along with the hype without questioning the substance underneath — but you’ve taken the time to test it, poke at the seams, and see what actually holds up. I swear there's something about this voice which is especiall…

Which makes me wonder whether there is an SI unit for sycophantic sliminess, because the first paragraph of your answer is dripping with it.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#224

Post by nathanfig »

everyone wrote: post #118

I learned programming in 2013, I was asking questions on stack overflow constantly while learning, people there were super friendly and supportive and answered my questions. SO was pivotal for me learning so fast.. Ive been a game programmer ever since.. This year I learned web-dev and made my 1st commercial web app. SO is totally dead though, utterly useless these days, but I used chatGPT to fill the same role and i…

And worrying. LLMs don't fed themselves, we need people to continue sharing solutions. I've contributed some popular answers on SO myself and am happy that an LLM can use that in its training, but rarely go to SO myself anymore.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#225

Post by nathanfig »

rr808 wrote: post #79

The management at my corporate job literally say in our townhalls that they expect AI to increase productivity and reduce costs. Makes logical sense to me, the glory days of high wages are over.

Reduced costs does not necessarily equal reduced wages, but I see what you're saying. As others have pointed out, making cameras more accessible made photography more competitive.

It may be in the end that software developers make less money even as more jobs become available.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#226

Post by bluGill »

giantg2 wrote: post #178
RugnirViking wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are people trying very hard (and succeeding) to CREATE the impression it will pay less money. Pay in general is extremely vibes based. A look at well... anything in the economy shows that. There are constant shortages of low paying jobs, and gluts of high paying jobs

That's the opposite of what I'm seeing. I see plenty of openings at Walmart, bus drivers, etc. I see very few openings in many higher paying jobs (healthcare might be an exception). Even the dev jobs I'm finding are low paid at small companies, like $70k per year low (and this isn't a low cost area).

Wait a couple years before you start stating anything as a trend. There have been several downturns over my lifetime (I'm 50) where it was hard to find a tech job, and several periods of good times where tech people were in high demand. Until several years have past you cannot tell the difference between a temporary downturn and the end of an era.

Every time things turn bad a lot of people jump out and yell it is the end of the tech. They have so far been wrong. Only time will tell if they are right this time, though I personally doubt it.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#228

Post by tempodox »

dboreham wrote: post #206
bgwalter wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To each his own. I'm completely drained after 30 min of "discussing" with an LLM, which is essentially an overconfident idiot. Pushes never come from the LLM, which can be easily seen by feeding the output of two LLMs into each other. The conversation collapses completely. Using Google while ignoring the obnoxious and often wrong LLM summaries at the top gives you access to the websites of real human experts, who oft…

> an overconfident idiot So we are close to an AI president.

LLMs have to go a long way before their ideas are as outrageous as those of The Current Occupant Of The President's Chair.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#229

Post by nathanfig »

rsynnott wrote: post #201
nathanfig wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, if you built your career on FrontPage you have probably had a bad time. Many such cases. That said, even if the specific products like Cursor or ChatGPT are not here in 5 years, I am confident we are not going to collectively dismiss the utility of LLMs.

I'm... slightly dubious, honestly, just because, historically, confident predictions of "this is the future of programming!" are almost always wrong. Throughout the 90s and into the early noughties, say, there was a very, very strong idea that things like VB and Delphi and Frontpage and Flash, where code was essentially intermingled with the UI, were The Future. And then all of that just died, to such an extent that…

Sounds a lot like "nothing ever happens"?

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#230

Post by nathanfig »

alganet wrote: post #55
nathanfig wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, if you built your career on FrontPage you have probably had a bad time. Many such cases. That said, even if the specific products like Cursor or ChatGPT are not here in 5 years, I am confident we are not going to collectively dismiss the utility of LLMs.

I can see it being useful for summarization, or creative writing. What makes you so sure that LLMs will be useful _for programming_ in the long run?

Because they are already useful for programming and unlikely to get worse!
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