Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked • Hacker News Board

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#221

Post by h0l0cube » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:30 PM UTC

xeonmc wrote: post #90

I will never buy an EV, not because of its powertrain but because there is no way to avoid their spyware. Granted, the same goes for modern gas cars, which is also why I stick to secondhand but premium pre-infotainment cars

From what I've read, telemetry is typically opt-in on both EVs and gas. It's tactile mechanical controls that are more important to me. I'm even considering just doing a custom conversion on mine, just as soon as solid-state batteries show up to make the battery life (and hopefully charging time) worth it for heavier vehicles. Any time now...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#222

Post by elric » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:31 PM UTC

xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

From what I've seen, scooters and electric bikes aren't competition for cars, but for public transport.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#223

Post by stephen_g » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:32 PM UTC

Toutouxc wrote: post #167

tim333 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

e-scooters seem incredibly unsafe to me and I think the figures back that up. e-bikes are much more stable.

I've ridden many thousands of kilometers on all kinds of regular bikes, e-bikes, e-scooters (of the small-wheels kind), electrified kickbikes (of the big-front-wheel kind) and actual scooters (of the vespa kind) and it all feels roughly the same to me. If you're an idiot who couldn't be bothered to learn how to ride $vehicle, you will likely crash $vehicle. The issue is that e-scooters (of the small-wheels kind) are…

Yeah, I’ve racked up more than 2000 km on my e-scooter too with no issues, and I agree with your assessment - I see plenty of people riding responsibly but some people doing absolutely crazy things on scooters (often riding on busy roads, and at similar speeds to cars - crazy) and think it’s just a matter of time when you ride like that…

On bike paths at the legal speed limit here (25 km/h) you’re far less likely to have problems, especially if not riding while affected by any substances.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#224

Post by Hamuko » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:38 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #214

The "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine. Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower. I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's…

The conclusion seems pretty shoddy as well, since it relies on a few years worth of data to indicate a permanent shift in purchasing habits, and those years include a global pandemic, supply chain shortages and high inflation/interest.

Really the only conclusion I would make is that combustion-only has peaked, and that much is very clear if you go and shop for a new car. Everything is being hybridised.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#225

Post by api » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:43 PM UTC

snowwrestler wrote: post #209

bArray wrote: post #166

I think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. I…

In the long run, society goes to 100% electric transportation due to global warming. Any analysis that treats this as a simple matter of consumer choice is going to miss the biggest driver of adoption. Maybe some alternate carbon-neutral fuel for combustion is possible, but all the ones we’ve tried so far have lost out to electric.

Not just global warming but eventually oil depletion. Fracking has given the oil industry a stay of execution but it will work until it doesn’t and the cheapest stuff is exhausted, just like conventional drilling.

We know how to build good EVs now, which means the result of this will be a lot less catastrophic than twenty or thirty years ago. We are lucky the peak oilers back then underestimated.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#226

Post by mc32 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:44 PM UTC

elric wrote: post #222

xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

From what I've seen, scooters and electric bikes aren't competition for cars, but for public transport.

Also light transport works great for for single people and dinks. Once people have kids they likely would want a car. By that time you don’t want to do daily shopping and you don’t want to carry four bags of groceries on a bus, plus on average a couple of times a month you need to transport bulkier items -yes you could rent a car for that each time, but people like ad hoc convenience, they don’t like planning things in advance, if they can avoid it.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#227

Post by divan » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:50 PM UTC

Moderators should fix the title and add "in 2018" to the end, as it's on the chart itself. Omitting "in 2018" part changes message completely and is misleading.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#228

Post by analog31 » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 12:50 PM UTC

Fricken wrote: post #180

analog31 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get around on an acoustic bike, but have a lot of friends with e-bikes. I believe this is extremely locale-dependent. For instance there's relatively little bike theft in my locale, except around the university where it's just really easy pickings. I think you can learn a lot by looking at how bikes -- acoustic and electric -- are already being parked and locked in your district. For instance my daughter is attendi…

I've been getting around on acoustic bikes for 35 years. 7 of them have been stolen in that time, yet still I've saved tens of thousands of dollars relative to the cost of relying on public transit, and hundreds of thousands of dollars relative to the cost of buying and operating a motor vehicle.

I've been extremely lucky: No bikes stolen ever. Part of the credit goes to my Anti-Theft Aesthetics (tm).

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#229

Post by Cthulhu_ » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:00 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #214

The "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine. Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower. I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's…

That chart used is very low information dense, reducing cars to "electric" and "non-electric", but that's an oversimplification. There's hybrids and plug-in hybrids like you said, hydrogen, pressured air (ok that one never took off), and of course different types of fuel like petrol, diesel and LPG.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#230

Post by paulryanrogers » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 1:00 PM UTC

Hamuko wrote: post #224

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #214

The "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine. Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower. I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's…

The conclusion seems pretty shoddy as well, since it relies on a few years worth of data to indicate a permanent shift in purchasing habits, and those years include a global pandemic, supply chain shortages and high inflation/interest. Really the only conclusion I would make is that combustion-only has peaked, and that much is very clear if you go and shop for a new car. Everything is being hybridised.

Having just bought a hybrid minivan, there are few choices and high demand but low supply. ICE only vehicles are in ready supply at all our local dealerships.