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Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

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Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#221

Post by eitally »

righthand wrote: post #148
mrtksn wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my case its coding real world apps that people use and pay money for. I no longer personally type most of my code, Instead I describe stuff or write pseudo code that LLMs end up converting into the real thing. It's very good at handling the BS part of coding but also its very good at knowing things that I don't know. I recently used it to hack a small bluetooth printer which requires its own iOS app to print, usin…

I see, for single operator, no customers products it works nicely. You may find you use it less and less and will actually require that Bluetooth knowledge eventually as you grow a product. LLMs so far seem to be good at developing prototype apps. But most of my projects already have codegen and scaffolding tools so I guess I don’t get that use out of them. I predict that once you release your embarrassing app, you w…

You seem to be overestimating the quality of a many production software products.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#222

Post by hollandheese »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #164
coliveira wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you want to grow the real economy, build houses and reduce the cost of living. Yes, I wonder why it is so hard for Western countries to understand that there's no future in a place where housing is more expensive than your average salary. If may look cool for a few years until most people have left or are living on the streets.

Plenty of housing. The problem is, people want cheap housing in places where everyone wants to live. I don't think that will happen any time soon.

There is no cheap housing anywhere in the entire state of California. In the worst and poorest parts of the state where are basically no jobs or anything the housing is still way more expensive than anyone can afford.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#223

Post by LaGrange »

mrtksn wrote: post #69
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

IMHO anyone who started using AI seriously: 1) Wouldn't want to go back 2) Wouldn't believe that it's about to replace human intellectual work In other words AI got advanced enough to do amazing things but not 500B or T level of amazing and people with the money are not convinced that it will be anytime soon.

> 1) Wouldn't want to go back

I went back. It sucks pretty bad, actually.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#224

Post by AlexCoventry »

lazide wrote: post #124
qgin wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you don’t have widespread adoption until AI takes the form of a plug-and-play “remote employee”. You click a button on Microsoft Teams and hire “Bob” who joins your team org, gets an account like any other employee, interacts over email, chat, video calls, joins meetings, can use all your software in whatever state it’s currently in. It has to be a brownfield solution because most of the world is brownfield.

Hah, that isn’t a brownfield solution. These orgs could hire someone who could solve these issues right now (and for the last decade) if they would allow those people to exist in their org. The challenge is precisely that those people (or people with that capability) aren’t allowed to exist.

> those people (or people with that capability) aren’t allowed to exist

I'm not sure what personal characteristics or capabilities you're referring to, FWIW.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#225

Post by rangestransform »

hedora wrote: post #167
rangestransform wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it’s effectively a software moat wrt. GPU programming, there’s nothing stopping AMD from catching up besides insufficiently deep pockets and engineering culture

Not sure why AMD’s software side gets so much flack these days. For everything other than AI programming, their drivers range from fine to best in class. I have an AMD minipc running linux that I use for steam gaming, light development, etc. The kernel taint bit is off. There is one intel device on the pci/usb buses: wifi/bt, and it’s the only thing with a flaky driver in the system. People have been complaining abou…

Nobody who controls the purse strings cares about the kernel taint bit if their model doesn’t train, if they’re burning developer time debugging drivers, if they have to burn even more dev time switching off of cuda, etc.

If AMD really cared about making money, they would’ve sent MI300s to all of the top CS research institutions for free and supported rocm on every single product. Investing any less than nvidia, the trillion dollar behemoth, is just letting big green expand their moat even more.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#226

Post by MichaelZuo »

aresant wrote: post #185

- This is a proper MSFT resource allocation commentary, not an industry wide canary in coalmine - MSFT CapEx is up 45% YoY, positioning for inference dominance - MSFT is prioritizing AI inference for millions of customers over massive AI training for OpenAI - Losing inference demand risks clients moving to AWS/GCP - MSFT taking bet that industry overbuild will lead to more attractive leasing terms in future vs owning…

If they are taking the bet that industry will overbuild, how is it not a canary in a coal mine?

There is almost certainly at least one person in Redmond working on this that’s smarter and better informed than you, just going off probability.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#227

Post by righthand »

eitally wrote: post #221
righthand wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see, for single operator, no customers products it works nicely. You may find you use it less and less and will actually require that Bluetooth knowledge eventually as you grow a product. LLMs so far seem to be good at developing prototype apps. But most of my projects already have codegen and scaffolding tools so I guess I don’t get that use out of them. I predict that once you release your embarrassing app, you w…

You seem to be overestimating the quality of a many production software products.

Don’t worry I am not. I understand that most prod deployed softwares are prototypes before LLMs came around.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#228

Post by righthand »

hedora wrote: post #162
righthand wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is using AI seriously? I’ve tried to use it as a web search replacement and often the information is generic or tells me what I already know or wrong. I’ve used a code suggestions variant long before OpenAI hype started and while sometimes useful, rarely is it correct or helpful on getting over the next hurdle. Any code from my coworkers is now just AI slop they glanced over once. Then I spend a long time review…

Either you’re using it wrong, or you are using the wrong tools. For search, try kagi fastgpt (no subscription required): https://kagi.com/fastgpt For code completion, I’ve found it’s not good at jumping hard hurdles, but it is a bit better than find replace (e.g. it finds things that are syntactically different, but semantically related), and can notice stuff like “you forgot to fix the Nth implementation of the inte…

I shut off Kagi search LLM stuff because I don’t need an LLM typing stuff out while I’m literally looking at a list of results.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#229

Post by semi-extrinsic »

markus_zhang wrote: post #70
djtango wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation Five years ago during covid all these clunky legacy businesses couldn't figure out a CSV let alone APIs but suddenly with AGI they are going to become tech masters and know how to automate and processize their entire operations? I found it very amusing that at the turn of the decade "digitalisation" was a buzzword as Amazon was ap…

In fact most of the industries out there are still slow and inefficient. Some physicians only accept phone calls for making appointments. Many primary schools only take phone calls and an email could go either way just not their way. It's just we programmers who want to automate everything.

Today I spent 55 minutes in a physical store trying to get a replacement for two Hue pendant lights that stopped working. The lights had been handed in a month ago and diagnosed as "can't be repaired" two weeks ago. All my waiting time today was spent watching different employees punching a ridiculous amount of keys on their keyboards, and having to get manual approval from a supervisor (in person) three times. I am now successfully able to wait 2-6 weeks for the replacement lights to arrive, maybe.

When people say AI is going to put people out of work, I always laugh. The people I interacted with today could have been put out of work by a well-formulated shell script 20 years ago.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#230

Post by sangnoir »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #68
numbsafari wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has nothing to do with supply/demand, and everything to do with geopolitics.

You think they would spend 500B without thinking there will be any demand?

It cost Apple $0 to say they'll spend $500B.
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