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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#221

Post by tuna74 »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #194
atmosx wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

The real problem is the amount of ads and game breaks. Everyone knows basketball is about the fourth quarter so the league has backloaded ads. Now it routinely takes 20-30 minutes to get through the last 6 minutes of a game. Completely breaks the flow of the best part of the show. Second problem is that with the play in 2/3 of the teams make the post season so there is little incentive to try for a top seed anymore.

I agree with the breaks, but there is a lot of incentive to make the guaranteed playoff seeding. You might only have a one game chance to make it into the playoffs otherwise.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#222

Post by tuna74 »

bdangubic wrote: post #136
skippyboxedhero wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

completely the opposite because of the structure of soccer (completely different to basketball, it is an invasion sport but statistically very dissimilar), it has completely reversed the ordering of the sport there is significantly more strategic diversity, and teams that were unable to compete ten years ago are now able to compete effectively with wealthier teams (there is no catchup mechanic in soccer unlike US spo…

Pep Guardiola 1000000% ruined soccer in similarish ways today's nba is broken

Real Madrid has been the most successful team in the last 10 years and they have zero tactical innovation. Also very fun to watch!

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#223

Post by prawn »

bdangubic wrote: post #131
atmosx wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

80's and 90's also played 82 games... the fact that today's players are soft and whiny is nba's fault

I think the difference is that teams are more cautious because they don't want a season disrupted by a major injury. Zion the other day said that the Pelicans were the limiting factor in his sitting back-to-backs. Players frequently come back on minutes restrictions (Kawhi previously, Exum currently).

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#224

Post by soneca »

ctchocula wrote: post #202
kenjackson wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking Basketball is great. The people who complain about the 3s in basketball probably didn’t watch the NBA in the older days. Horrible defense and far less skill — and that’s the era I grew up and loved. I have two major complaints about the game nowadays: (1) intentional fouling to get an advantage. It’s the only major sport where fouling can often work to your advantage. (2) The block call is so inconsistent it…

> (1) intentional fouling to get an advantage. It’s the only major sport where fouling can often work to your advantage. nitpick: This happens in soccer as well. Oftentimes it's late in the game and you see the opponent has a counterattack that has a high probability of scoring. In that case, it's better for you to tactically foul them by taking them down before they reach your box and take the yellow card.

Came here to say this. It doesn’t have to be late in the game. The whole time tactical fouls is a valuable tool for defense. You try to make it non-violent enough and, when it’s a counterattack, early enough so the referee might not interpret as a foul to prevent a counterattack, so you don’t get a yellow card.

Also, exchanging a certain goal for a penalty+red card is a very common defense tactic. Check Uruguay vs Ghana, World Cup 2010.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#225

Post by branko_d »

asimpletune wrote: post #145

I think this article doesn’t do the sport justice. Modern basketball is amazing and light years ahead of where it was even ten years ago. Watch “explain one play” on YouTube and you’ll begin to understand how much thought goes into even 5 seconds of normal basketball. The craziest part is how teams now days know how to punish a mistake, and virtually every point comes from very slight mistakes happening. Being too sl…

I agree. As someone who watched Magic, Bird and MJ in their prime, I think the modern basketball is at much higher level of both skill and athleticism. The level of "4D chess" going on is incredible and very enjoyable to watch!

I do not like the bullying aspect of it though. Offensive players are ramming straight into defenders, shoving the them mid-jump to get a rebound etc.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#226

Post by prawn »

rossdavidh wrote: post #41
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #9

> Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This was such an eye-opener for me. A high-stakes sport like basketball/the NBA went on for decades without realising the simple math that three pointers are more valuable than two-pointers if you just do the basic math. How many areas in our lives are yet to be optimised with really basic math?

One possibility is that there are more players who can make 3-point shots at a high enough percentage to make this true. Also, it depends on how good the defense is vs. 2-point shots; if that gets tighter, then the 3-point shot becomes more valuable. Which also suggests how things may continue to evolve; the best defense vs. 3-point shots probably compromises your defense vs. 2-point shots, and eventually some team w…

A tall player who can't make threes, is more limited in the modern NBA and more limiting for roster construction. As a result, a lot more practice would be allocated to shooting from range. Look at someone like Brook Lopez (7-foot centre) who attempted 31 threes total in his first 8 seasons. Then started attempting 250-500 threes/season after that (peaked at 512 attempts).

Developing players who are elite prospects are also now less likely to be pigeon-holed during development into: you're tall as a 12 year old, so just focus on drills for centres. So yes, there would absolutely be growth in the number of capable shooters.

On your point about realisation, teams already optimise to favour threes and high-percentage twos. They try to stretch defence to each extreme, but you need to excel and threaten at both things at any given point because teams will adjust constantly during the game.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#227

Post by bdangubic »

abenga wrote: post #218
bdangubic wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

besides 7-footers chucking 3’s what “skills” do these new nba players have? there are maybe 10 that have any skills, the rest can shoot and that’s about fucking it. 90% of today’s players would play in D league two decades ago

> two decades ago Are you talking about the age when teams gave contracts to any random player 6'10 and above just to soak up fouls from Shaq?

as opposed to now when davis betrans is pushing close $100 million in earnings? :) don’t be funny

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#228

Post by abenga »

bdangubic wrote: post #227
abenga wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> two decades ago Are you talking about the age when teams gave contracts to any random player 6'10 and above just to soak up fouls from Shaq?

as opposed to now when davis betrans is pushing close $100 million in earnings? :) don’t be funny

Bertans is a close to 8PPG, 40%3P shooter in his career. Sounds like a useful role player to me. Not everyone has to be Lebron James.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#229

Post by darkerside »

pfisherman wrote: post #197
darkerside wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, this post comes off that way. Or you have a different timeline of what you consider always. Jordan basically invented the modern superstar. Sure, you had the Wilts and Dr J's back in the day, but they dominated based on their talent, not because the game was meticulously planned around maximizing their specific capabilities.

Basketball is not football. It is a five man game where one player can have an outsized impact. Superstars not only impact the makeup of their teams roster, they impact the composition of rosters across the league. When Shaq was in his prime teams used to carry extra big men to have more fouls to give. The most recent iteration of the league was teams going for small ball with three point shooting wings to compete wi…

Yup, can't disagree with any of that! I do think the modern game has specialized a bit more beyond star stoppers, but that's kind of a natural part of the evolving meta game in any long running competition.

It'll be fun to see what Wemby stoppers could possibly look like.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#230

Post by darkerside »

lapcat wrote: post #148
hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

> your average viewer is watching a chess match but not even understanding the basic moves Your average viewer isn't tuning in to watch a chess match. You'll notice that professional chess doesn't have the same viewership as basketball. Regardless of the mathematical strategies, it sucks to watch a bunch of three pointers getting missed. The NBA team average is 36% on 38 attempts per game. Thus, in an average game, t…

Draymond Green is the Joe Rogan of the NBA. He's just optimizing for engagement and controversy.

If it were truly as you say, those players would get pulled. Logo 3s are rare. And when someone heats up and hits multiple consecutive, it's anything but boring.

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