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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

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Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#221

Post by scottyah »

aiforecastthway wrote: post #82
scottyah wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, I had been using a definition of regulatory capture that doesn't really fit what I'm seeing when I look it up. I learned it to mean capture of market share through regulation, either by getting your competitors banned, forced creation of consumers through law (like car seats/helmets/paper straws). Maybe someone knows what that is called? Instead, it means regulatory agencies become dominated by the inte…

The Prediction Market industry got out ahead of regulation and effectively chose their own (weak and hands-off) regulator in the CFTC. The requirements involved are not onerous. There are certainly jurisdictions where actual gambling is more tightly regulated. I am not exaggerating when I say that any pair of a good programmer and a decent lawyer could do the technical work to stand up a compliant exchange (they'd ne…

You seem to be anti-polymarket. I'm speculating that one or more of their competitors are behind the timing on this raid, and not offering any opinion on whether polymarket made a wise choice in not seeking regulation or whether or not they would also pull the same move on competitors.

IMO, the counters to my speculations would be that the raid was because they got too popular and the gov didn't want a million people starting up their own exchanges, or they reached a monetary tipping point the gov set to warrant a raid.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#222

Post by zer8k »

beejiu wrote: post #97
pembrook wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I presume you also feel strongly that people should call health/life/car/homeowners insurance "gambling?" Because insurance is quite literally a prediction market. Not trying to be snarky, I know certain religions actually do consider insurance to be gambling.

No, because even though insurance companies make profit, the primary motivation of insurance is risk pooling amongst the policyholders. This is not the case for those trading binary options or similar instruments (except for "hedging" - a legitimate use case of producers buying futures, for example).

This is only true because you've minced words.

An insurance company sells options contracts. We call it healthcare. It is , aside from a few small differences, the same as a put or a call.

An insurance company's day-to-day operation is indistinguishable from a derivatives hedge desk. Insurance companies absolutely take massive bets. These are managed by re-insurers.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#223

Post by Manuel_D »

legitster wrote: post #4

Obviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble

From what I can gather online, US citizens can indeed legally bet on elections: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/election-bett...

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#224

Post by mrkramer »

rozap wrote: post #58
andy_xor_andrew wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Respectable and advisable? No. Smart? Yes. Their audience here is the incoming administration, which is founded on party loyalty and an "us-vs-them" mindset, where "them" are the corrupt elites. They're making a bet that whoever is prosecuting them in 4 months is going to be a lot friendlier to them if they act like victims of a vengeful democratic elite, and they're probably right. Really smart, honestly.

Given Peter Thiel is a big investor in polymarket, and is JD Vance's daddy, I'm sure they will have no problem getting this case dismissed.

Before you place bets on Polymarket you need to check the box which says something like this: "I promise I'm not from US". Pinky swear that I'm not using VPN to place illegal bets. That's why FBI is investigating them, so case still hangs in the balance.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#225

Post by curt15 »

bookofjoe wrote: post #212
qgin wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a signal to the incoming President to protect them ASAP

>Elon Musk, the richest man in the world and one of the president-elect’s closest advisors, wrote, “This seems messed up” in response to the news. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/13/fbi-raid-...

Elon likes to weigh in on all sorts of matters outside his domain, such as UK or Italian politics. He's a classic example of intensity matching. Building rockets and cars doesn't transfer to credibility on non-scientific matters.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#226

Post by creatonez »

deely3 wrote: post #218
creatonez wrote: post #203

Good? These gambling machines are predatory and destructive institutions and needed to be shut down a long time ago. Everything a casino touches turns into hyper-capitalistic dystopia, they are the wealthy elites' worst exploitation, distilled and refined into a poison. And now they are trying to play with society from the top-down by rebranding as "prediction markets for everything", not only pretending to sell a cr…

You actually have no idea how Polymarket works, right?

Why would you think I don't know how it works? Because I'm calling it a gambling machine and not hyping it up as a prediction market? Is it somehow different from all of the new sports betting sites that have wreaked havoc through the sports industry in a very short span of time? Don't fall for their dumb marketing, it's letting them spread poison.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#227

Post by CodeWriter23 »

dgfitz wrote: post #72
CodeWriter23 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. There is no requirement that even an indictment has occurred in the past.

"I hereby pardon you for murder. Nope, you didn't murder anyone, and you haven't been indited on murder charges!" Technically sure, you're correct. The worst kind of correct.

>"I hereby pardon you for murder. Nope, you didn't murder anyone, and you haven't been indited on murder charges!"

You have a reading challenge. GP said conviction required, which is not true. You can be pardoned for something you did but nobody knows you did it.

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#228

Post by xcrunner529 »

jpadkins wrote: post #217
J05ephu5M13r wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Serious answer: I don't know, but we shouldn't rush to judge until all the facts come out. All we know is they did a raid on the CEO home (not the business?) and the CEO claimed politics is involved. I sincerely hope Congress performs their duty of oversight on the FBI well, so we can learn the truth of the matter. Overt politicization of federal law enforcement is a scary development.

What evidence do you have of that being the case?

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#229

Post by [deleted] »

moomin wrote: post #70
neilv wrote: post #28

> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?

There’s people in the comments characterising this as political positioning, and I think they’re dead on. However, it continues to do my head in how utterly ridiculous this statement is. Literally, there’s not even a motive.

[deleted]

Re: FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan

#230

Post by dgfitz »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #173
dgfitz wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, those are your examples? Besides the Nixon disaster (stop hiding behind that) and confederate soldiers, any other examples?

You're arguing, with no evidence, for a claim with counterfactual precedent. (And look up preemptive pardons. Not been done. But you're lacking imagination if you can't see the utility of a pardon absent indictment or even accusation.)

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