Trump wins presidency for second time • Hacker News Board

the5avage wrote: post #96

Is there some analysis why the polls didn't correctly predict the result? A failure in representative polls like this should be avoided with statistical methods.

All models are wrong. Some models are useful.

That pool was apparently more the former than the later.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#226

Post by archagon » Wed, Nov 06, 2024, 10:58 AM UTC

akmarinov wrote: post #204

[flagged]

[dead]

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#227

Post by arethuza » Wed, Nov 06, 2024, 10:59 AM UTC

akmarinov wrote: post #204

[flagged]

If Ukraine falls then the Baltics will be next - I can see Poland, France and the UK attempting to help but I suspect this would ultimately fail leading to the breakup of NATO. EU either breaks up or becomes much stronger...

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#228

Post by konart » Wed, Nov 06, 2024, 10:59 AM UTC

akmarinov wrote: post #204

[flagged]

>pull out of Kursk

This is happening any week now with or without Trump.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#229

Post by bko » Wed, Nov 06, 2024, 10:59 AM UTC

goethes_kind wrote: post #165

From a game theoretical perspective this is a good result. It is a clear reiteration of the message to the Democrats: you won't win by claiming to be 0.1% less bad. The Democrats should have fielded a strong personality in their own right. This is not about left or right. It's about mobilizing people by giving them something to care about. "More of the same" and "not like that guy" isn't very enticing. I don't think…

I think it would have been better if they didn't hide Biden's mental deterioration and let the primary process pick out a better candidate. There isn't a single county that she outperformed Biden from 2020.

Re: Trump wins presidency for second time

#230

Post by Yaina » Wed, Nov 06, 2024, 11:00 AM UTC

apexalpha wrote: post #213

Not super worried from a European perspective, it might even spur on some cooperation in our own union, which I support. Just a bit nervous for Ukraine... I wish Europe could step up on that front but we just don't have the capacity for it. Which is entirely our own fault, Trump is right to call us out on our reliance on the US. It's our continent we should be the one spearheading this. Hopefully that will change in…

I'd be nice if the EU would step up and become more self sufficient with Trump in the White House.

Though I am nervous. I think Trump could still do us a lot of harm.