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Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#221

Post by bruce511 »

kelnos wrote: post #166
bruce511 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you're getting downvotes, it's a legitimate question. There are different kinds of adversary. A traditional tactic in politics is to find someone to blame. Trump blames immigrants, Muslims and China. He translated this into economic action by putting tarrifs on Chinese goods. (Tarrifs are a terrible idea, but one of the few things the president can do unilaterally.) Thanks to his years of anti-chinese rh…

> Geopolitically, China is investing heavily in influence. There are lots of programs in other countries (especially Africa and Asia) where they are fostering trade and building infrastructure. This comes largely at the expense of US influence. So then what you are saying is, as an American, I should consider them an adversary. Unless I think that their influence on geopolitics is good (I don't) or that my own countr…

It depends if you see it as a zero sum game. And indeed if you view others gain as your loss. It's possible to be rivals, without being adversaries.

Plus, I think it's worth qualifying "adversary" there. If you're not a politician then what do you care about their political choices, and so on.

If you grew up during the cold War you likely have the viewpoint of America being exceptional, being "the best" government, democracy, everything. This can be a hard position to let go of - to see that some things could be improved, that some countries do done things better. That the US can learn. The essence of the MAGA movement is to return USA to their global position as it was in the 50s, but the world has changed.

And yes, China has things to teach us if we'll listen. Of course they are also far from perfect, and some lessons may do well in one context but not another.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#222

Post by godelski »

maxglute wrote: post #219
godelski wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you misunderstand, you don't need 90% of workers to act against a factory to sabotage or shut it down. You need one to do significant damage. Not percent, one employee. If you think about where you work, I'm sure you can quickly figure out how you could cause significant harm to it. I'm sure if you think for a bit you could figure out how to do more and maybe how to avoid getting caught or at least caught qui…

If PRC gets TW fabs intact (which presumes invasion successful), PRC semi engineers will be overseering to filter for loyalty. This isn't unique historic problem, unfucking captured labour production from wartime spoils is a process. Nor do you need 100% TWnese loyalty, only group of compradors willing to be rewraded to drive internecine fracturing, of which there always are. >occupation Borders change through histor…

  > will be overseering to filter for loyalty
I think you missed the argument

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#223

Post by baybal2 »

nosianu wrote: post #155
adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if China invades Taiwan, there won't be much of TSMC left standing by the end.

I hear that statement repeated a lot, but I'm not so sure. What is the incentive? If China invades, anyone involved in destroying that asset will have a huge problem for themselves afterwards, China won't forgive. On the other hand, see what happened in Ukraine, where in the initial invasion there was quite a bit of collaboration of some Ukrainians, for example Antonov leadership ("Antonov's leadership sabotaged defe…

[dead]

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#224

Post by maxglute »

godelski wrote: post #222
maxglute wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If PRC gets TW fabs intact (which presumes invasion successful), PRC semi engineers will be overseering to filter for loyalty. This isn't unique historic problem, unfucking captured labour production from wartime spoils is a process. Nor do you need 100% TWnese loyalty, only group of compradors willing to be rewraded to drive internecine fracturing, of which there always are. >occupation Borders change through histor…

> will be overseering to filter for loyalty I think you missed the argument

I don't think it's a sound argument. You're greatly underestimating the ability for power to coerce and get people to fall in line with enough carrots and stick, and eliminate those that don't.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#225

Post by aspenmayer »

tzs wrote: post #220
aspenmayer wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> During the Second World War, Germany was under a United States trade embargo, the British naval blockade and the import of Coca-Cola syrup was prohibited. To circumvent this, Max Keith, the head of Coca-Cola Deutschland (Coca-Cola GmbH), decided to create a new product for the German market, using only ingredients available in Germany at the time, including sugar beet, whey (a cheese byproduct), and apple pomace. H…

That's Coca-Cola GmbH, a German company that was owned by a US company. When the US and Germany were at war the US Coca-Cola lost control of Coca-Cola GmbH. It wasn't until after the war that the US company got control back.

A distinction that matters somewhat in the context of the comparison to IBM, but given that the two Coca-Cola companies recombined after the war, it’s one of little difference.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#226

Post by godelski »

maxglute wrote: post #224
godelski wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will be overseering to filter for loyalty I think you missed the argument

I don't think it's a sound argument. You're greatly underestimating the ability for power to coerce and get people to fall in line with enough carrots and stick, and eliminate those that don't.

No, I’m not. We’re not in disagreement that most people will fall in line. We’re in disagreement of how many people it takes to form an effective resistance group. My claim is a handful, your response is to dismiss this and act like everyone is going to fall in line. That just hasn’t ever happened in history. It’s why occupation is difficult. It’s why occupation has evolved to be through internal puppets rather than explicit ownership. Because it’s the same strategy as the resistance in reverse.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#227

Post by EmptyCoffeeCup »

nosianu wrote: post #217
adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is forgetting that the US exists. The US doesn't want China to invade Taiwan or to control TSMC. if China invades, is very much in the US interest to fly everyone important at TSMC and their families to the US, and to blow up the buildings. it's also in the TSMC employees interest because living in a warzone sucks. Furthermore, this policy is a dissinsentive for China to invade since it means that invading won't…

> this is forgetting that the US exists. I did not forget this. I think you overestimate what the US can and is willing to do there, and also what the incentives would be for people to escape to the US. This is not Vietnam in the 1970s, staying right there may very well be the preferred choice, even if China takes over. Especially if they make a very nice offer in advance. Should Trump win that may look even worse.

You're thinking too literally. The USA do not need any co-operation with from the operators of TMSC to deny China the asset. They have enough bombs.

The Americans will want the experience of the operators. If those operators refuse to go to America, they'll be unalived with the plant itself.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#228

Post by maxglute »

godelski wrote: post #226
maxglute wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's a sound argument. You're greatly underestimating the ability for power to coerce and get people to fall in line with enough carrots and stick, and eliminate those that don't.

No, I’m not. We’re not in disagreement that most people will fall in line. We’re in disagreement of how many people it takes to form an effective resistance group. My claim is a handful, your response is to dismiss this and act like everyone is going to fall in line. That just hasn’t ever happened in history. It’s why occupation is difficult. It’s why occupation has evolved to be through internal puppets rather than…

Historic evidence is that that resistence can be mitigated in facilities staffed by belligerants, i.e. sabotage to German war manufacturing facilities staffed by captured/coerced labour were largely token and ineffective from within. The people who don't fall in line gets a bullet in the head. Pretty soon you're left with only those who fall in line. Getting captured production back up and running happens all the time throughout history. I'm not the one asserting "one employee" can significantly halt production. Maybe temperorily, until that one employee and their family gets the axe, and the next, pretty quickly everyone falls in line.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#229

Post by fennecbutt »

bruce511 wrote: post #30

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

Then ASML stops selling machines to TSMC. Japan is also responsible for a lot of wafer and resist stuff afaik.
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