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China's manufacturers are going broke

economist.com

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Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#221

Post by maxglute »

aquamar2 wrote: post #213
maxglute wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, EV export up 70% YoY but is minority part of exports, less than 1T out of 24T yuan total exports of which export itself is ~20% of 126T economy, aka export itself is not driving most of PRC growth. Maybe 0.5% of ~5 or 10% of new growth which is a lot, but also 90% of again, growth is happening not because of EV. If you remove EV success PRC is still growing, not collapsing. OP is pretending subtracting 5-1 is so…

[flagged]

Gasp! Random Chinese dinner anecdotes that their family business not doing well. Overworked complaining about being overworked. Much compelling. Wow. Also LOL @ quoting Chinese to insinuate I'm 粉红, I'm sorry, little pink/tankie, I guess you don't want dang to come find you.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#222

Post by c_o_n_v_e_x »

uoaei wrote: post #76
marcosdumay wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like militarism and imperialism are not compatible at that crazy new 21th century world. IMO, that's a good development. I hope it lasts.

The US government has put a lot of effort into isolating China from the Phillippines. It's just statecraft and covert influence campaigns, nothing to do with the moral supremacy of anti-imperialism. Moralizing arguments such as this one are FUD.

>The US government has put a lot of effort into isolating China from the Phillippines.

Let's not forget that some of China's isolation is self inflicted. China's nine dash line map, claiming 90% of the South China Sea, only drove their neighbors into the US's open arms.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#223

Post by HDThoreaun »

alephnerd wrote: post #55
highfrequency wrote: post #51

These are some staggering numbers: 52 thousand Chinese EV companies shut down last year. Xi Jinping (successfully) stimulated EV and semiconductor manufacturing through massive government investment and loans. The problem is that so many companies were funded that they are now viciously driving each other out of business through oversupply. Because the supply chain networks are so dense, each bankruptcy easily cascad…

> With such a large field of vicious competition Other than BYD (which has a strong product market fit and a very strong technical foundation in both battery tech and automotive development), where can the competition export? Every major automotive market has preemptively or actively placed tariffs on Chinese automotive exports straight from China. SAIC, GAG, GAC, BAIC, BYD, etc will all have to either ToT IP, open d…

The chinese auto companies are opening factories in mexico to get around tariffs. Monterrey,the center of american and now chinese auto manufacturing, is the best performing economic region of Mexico because of it.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#224

Post by antifa »

para_parolu wrote: post #109
Gibbon1 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I swear a lot of wars get started by guys like Xi who after seizing power internally try to seize power externally and it often ends really really badly for the host country. Seriously, the leader of Germany in the 1930's, Stalin, Putin, Saddam Hussein, now Xi. All seized power domestically and then couldn't help themselves when it came to neighboring countries.

Obviously this is heated topic, but did it ends really bad for USSR under Stalin rule (until his death)? I mean it was bad for many citizens but other areas were actually ok-ish considering war destructions. I’m not trying to make point about Stalin. Just trying to find if this is really a rule, but my historical knowledge is pretty limited. Intuitively I feel any overpowered political entity end up like shit. But in…

I think they just wanted to imply Xi was "like Hitler" and the rest is just filler ideology.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#225

Post by fdschoeneman »

uoaei wrote: post #205
fdschoeneman wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment ignores the facts of Chinese naval activities that many of their neighbors, including the Philippines, are wary of. You can say that US diplomacy is taking advantage of these facts in a way you don't like, but pretending the facts do not exist makes it necessary for people who do know them to ignore you.

"Ignores" is a strong word, I did nothing of the sort. The Phillippines has the opportunity to deal with their relationship with China themselves, or the US can whisper in the ears of its leaders to take certain actions, making promises to them that make the offer all but irresistible. The way you framed your comment makes it seem like you think the Phillippines is what, too noble of a country to bend under US influe…

"Ignores" may or may not be a strong word, but it's certainly the most accurate one I can think of to describe what you did. You ignored it. As in you failed to account for what is called outside of China "the elephant in the room." Kind of odd that you find it triggering. It's almost as if you are not being entirely honest.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#227

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #106
alephnerd wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same with India before 2020 - China used to be India's largest FDI partner before the Galwan crisis. After that, the Indian government "persuaded" Chinese players to sell off their Indian assets to Indian, Taiwanese, Korean, Japanese, and American players instead. 4 years later, the GlobalTimes - which was extremely provocative against India - has started pushing out content arguing that India should begin reopening…

I swear a lot of wars get started by guys like Xi who after seizing power internally try to seize power externally and it often ends really really badly for the host country. Seriously, the leader of Germany in the 1930's, Stalin, Putin, Saddam Hussein, now Xi. All seized power domestically and then couldn't help themselves when it came to neighboring countries.

Xi has been in power for 12 years now, and he hasn't started a single war yet. Meanwhile, how many wars has the US fought in the same timeframe?

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#228

Post by Nevermark »

luuurker wrote: post #191
Nevermark wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You need two to tango [...] > Anyone only blaming one side need to stop for a second [...] When it comes to military coercion (wars, threats), and imperialism, it only takes one bad actor to cause problems. When there are two sides, or three, it just means more actors willing to push around everyone else. Albeit, they amplify each other. Their respective needs to dominate encourage each others' aggressive tendencie…

The point I was trying to make (probably made a bad job at it) is that there is more than one bad actor in the Pacific and the person I replied to only blames one side. Sure, the US has their bases there (many since WW2), but we can't blame the US alone when we also have China making threats and claims that scare the heck out of other countries. The US doesn't need to move a finger to have Taiwan or Philippines on th…

> it could not exist without a China that makes overreaching claims, threats, and their huge military.

Good point.

Year after year, China was outpacing the world economically in numbers and strategic position.

Their future appeared to have no ceiling.

But they self-sabotaged by reverting from quietly accumulating strength to loudly showcasing strength via consolidation & provocation.

Despite no pressing need, they amplified military risk, economic & technological friction, undermined trust & provoked intense global resistance. The strategic value they destroyed is immense:

Poof! The presumed “Century of China” looks very different now. More like another Cold War.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#229

Post by kortilla »

klyrs wrote: post #218
kortilla wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does not take long to build excellence in the grand scale of things. A culture with positive feedback that encourages good engineering with leadership recognition and monetary/equity rewards can produce a great company in less than a decade. > who can bootstrap our manufacturing renaissance? Look at SpaceX. You don’t need a great wizard of yore to teach you how to do things if you iterate and learn. They went from…

> They didn’t have a magic culture of excellence then either and it wasn’t bestowed on them by elders. It was, actually. The machinists at Boeing 70 years ago were taught their craft. They didn't just figure it all out from scratch; some aspects of aeronautics were novel but shipbuilders were making propellers before William Boeing was even born. > They built it then and it can definitely be built again. I can't see…

> It was, actually. The machinists at Boeing 70 years ago were taught their craft. They didn't just figure it all out from scratch; some aspects of aeronautics were novel but shipbuilders were making propellers before William Boeing was even born.

This is absolutely incorrect. Most of the materials machining advancements to make light aircraft parts had to be done specifically for aircraft. Ship building is completely different and largely irrelevant.

> I can't see why I should trust this line of reasoning.

Because this wasn’t some long line of training from centuries of wizardry. Materials science was a joke 100 years ago. We can do what they did then to learn manufacturing but we can do it significantly faster because we have simulations and chemistry knowledge that wasn’t lost.

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