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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#221

Post by iknowstuff »

grumbelbart wrote: post #101
rvnx wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it sort of works in limited cases. FSD is like ChatGPT, it works in many cases, it does some mistakes, but it is certainly not “useless”. It won’t replace full time humans yet (the same way that ChatGPT does not replace a developer) but can still work in some scenarios. To the investor, ChatGPT is sold as “AGI is just round the corner”.

But "works in limited cases" is absolutely not enough, given what it promises. It drove into static objects a couple of times, killing people. Recent videos still show behavior like speeding through stop signs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGOo06xzCeU&t=990s Meaning that it's really not reliable enough to take your hands off the wheel. Waymo shows that it is possible, with today's technology, to do much much bette…

There are no FSD deaths. Only old Autopilot ones.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#222

Post by spdif899 »

catlikesshrimp wrote: post #204
dzhiurgis wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is hands-off since a week ago (provided you are sunglass free and watching road).

It is really difficult to read if this is sarcasm or not, and I am not being sarcastic.

Tesla's most recent version of FSD (which is released to a limited number of non-employee testers so far) uses only eye tracking for driver monitoring and does not require the user to touch the steering wheel as long as they are looking forward.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#223

Post by catlikesshrimp »

deng wrote: post #134
devnull3 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> old Italian city Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs [2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412

It already fails in Manhattan. I know that by US standards, the traffic in Manhattan is already considered chaos, but it's usually pretty tame compared to other countries. There are these videos by this HUGE Tesla fanboy, just look here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo_hC84OSwg where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws (good luck arguing t…

About other countries: Well, the pedestrian is always bargaining with its physical integrity. The pedestrian must damn well always be right unless it is definitely suicidal (not rethorical)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#224

Post by jajko »

DennisP wrote: post #165
deng wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, what is also important is that in many cities you often need to drive with a bit of... let's say "confidence", otherwise you will never leave your current spot. When you try to enter a busy street, you sometimes JUST NEED TO GO, trusting the oncoming traffic will slow down if needed. Sometimes a nice person will flash headlights to let you know it's OK, but I'm pretty sure FSD will not be able to notice that...…

FSD already understands some human gestures, and it learns this stuff by seeing how human drivers do things. Understanding a headlight flash doesn't seem like a big ask. And recently, the biggest complain from FSD users was that it drove a little too aggressively. Because it copies human drivers, FSD actually was doing slow rolling stops for a while. Then people freaked out and pretended that was super unsafe, and th…

I am not going to trust super expensive car and life/health of me and my family on 'its generally working ok, sort of' level.

This ain't new headphones or TV, people apart from emotional early adopters have very different expectations when their lives are at stake. Namely absolutely stellar performance compared to average driver, being marginally better while struggling with tons of non-standard situations ain't cutting it.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#225

Post by k_bx »

I wonder how is there no open data on "no mistakes FSD zones", e.g. areas of maps or routes that would be proven by large numbers to be error-free for Tesla FSD without interventions.

Would clearly show progress and make people understand when they're trying the road that's not proof yet.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#226

Post by iknowstuff »

jasoncartwright wrote: post #75
iknowstuff wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD 12 is not used on freeways. City streets only. You’re observing behavior of the old stack if you’re seeing notices for lane change reasoning. They’ll be unifying it later this year.

Ah yes, of course - we just have to wait for the next version. The response seen in the Twitter replies, YouTube comments and now HN comments to descriptions of FSD foulups for the best part of a decade now.

Stop treating it like it’s a sports team you dislike. If it’s good, people will pay for it, and if not, they won’t.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#227

Post by sneak »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #50
sneak wrote: post #11

> I’ve had a Model Y for more than 3 years now, well before Elon revealed himself as the kind of person he really is, and I’ve been happy with it. > When I buy my next car, my requirements will be simple: I want an EV, an extensive charger network along I-80, and an autosteer that’s at least as good as what I have today. Let’s hope there’ll be decent Tesla alternatives by then. Gee, I wonder if this is going to be an…

Conversely, I'd worry about the impartiality of any Tesla review that didn't prominently disclaim that yes, they are aware Musk is acting like a loon recently.

You can’t make two million automobiles a year and two stage orbital rockets while “acting like a loon”.

Either Tesla and SpaceX are not congruent and coterminous with Elon, or he’s doing fine. Either way, the ad hominem has no place in the discussion of the works of the companies he runs. Both Tesla and SpaceX are kicking ass, so either you have to give him credit for it, or you have to stop bashing the company if you don’t.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#228

Post by belter »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #196
hankman86 wrote: post #64

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

Give it some time ! When the dust settles, it will certainly be taught in business schools. And Musk will be in prison (not for FSD specifically). I watched the shareholders meeting yesterday - it was amazing. Elon repeated all the same things, he kept telling for the past 5 years at least, none of which is close to become a reality. And none was described in any tangible detail - all very vague promises. As for FSD,…

Somebody should have made a prank, and arrive to the meeting on a Mercedes EQS or S-Class sedan with Level 3 autonomy....

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#229

Post by henrikschroder »

lll-o-lll wrote: post #214
lagadu wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree that Tesla is nowhere close to having an actually autonomous driving system, I think that Tesla did invest more into research and probably collected more data than anyone else on the market. This amount of research has to have some results, even if they don't have a product yet.

Yep, because if you want something bad enough, and if it’s clearly possible, enough research will get us there! Except: commercially viable fusion, quantum computers, hyper loops, AGI, interstellar space travel. Hmmm. That’s the problem with research; much of it turns out to be a dead-end, or exponentially more difficult as you approach the goal. FSD looked extremely likely there for a time, but I think the problem w…

Machine-learning of any kind has this uncanny ability to get you really far with very little work, which gives this illusion of rapid progress. I remember watching George Hotz' first demo of his self-driving thing, it's absolutely nuts how much he was able to do himself with so little. Sure, it drove like a drunk toddler, but it drove!

And that tricks you into thinking that the hard parts are done, and you just need to polish the thing, fill in the last few cases, and you're done!

Except, the work needed to go from 90% there to 91% there is astronomically higher than the work needed to go from 0% to 90%. And the work needed from 91% to 92% is even higher. Partly because the complexity of the corner cases increase exponentially, and partly because everyone involved doesn't actually know how the model works. It's been hilarious watching Tesla flail at this, because every new release that promises the moon always has these weird regressions in unrelated areas.

My favourite example of complexity is that drivers need to follow not only road signs and traffic lights, they also need to follow hand signals from certain people. Police officers, for example, can use hand signals to direct traffic, and it's illegal not to follow those. I can see a self-driving system recognizing hand signals and steering the car accordingly, but suddenly you get a much harder problem: How can the car know the difference between lawful hand signals, and some dude in a Halloween police uniform waving his hands?

You want to drive autonomously coast to coast? Cool, now the car needs to know how to correctly identify local police officers, highway patrol officers, state police officers, and county sheriffs, depending on the car's location.

Good luck little toaster!

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#230

Post by bayindirh »

mlindner wrote: post #209
hankman86 wrote: post #64

They should teach Tesla’s “autopilot” (and its FSD upgrade) in business schools. Turns out you can sustainably push up company valuation on vapourware. You have to wonder if Tesla’s autonomous driving technology was actually ever meant to turn into a product. Or whether it is mostly a tool to justify the lofty Tesla stock price. I very much doubt that it is technologically ahead of its competitors.

It's weird how people keep calling this vaporware when it actually works, is active on roads, and is used by tens of thousands of people. That's the strangest usage of the term I've ever seen. Vaporware is the term used to describe products announced that never make it to market in any form.

> when it actually works*

*: The definition of "work" includes veering incl. but not limited to other vehicles, road shoulders or road divisions, sometimes self stabbing the car incl., but not limited to its driver with road railings or other roadside objects. The car might catch fire as a result or independent of the event if its feelings are hurt, or just feels like it, and burns for days, releasing its densely packed magic smoke, sweat, blood vapor and condensed tears of its designers and builders. The fumes might be toxic. Please don't inhale them.

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