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ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

arcprize.org

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Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#221

Post by lynx23 »

lacker wrote: post #6

I really like the idea of ARC. But to me the problems seem like they require a lot of spatial world knowledge, more than they require abstract reasoning. Shapes overlapping each other, containing each other, slicing up and reassembling pieces, denoising regular geometric shapes, you can call them "core knowledge" but to me it seems like they are more like "things that are intuitive to human visual processing". Would…

If a blind individual can solve a visually oriented challenge is not really a question of their intelligence but more a question of accessibility/translation. Just because I cant see something myself doesnt really say anything about my ability to deal with abstractions.

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#222

Post by tigerlily »

pants2 wrote: post #49
salamo wrote: post #21

This is super cool. I share Francois' intuition that the presently data-hungry learning paradigm is not only not generalizable but unsustainable: humans do not need 10,000 examples to tell the difference between cats and dogs, and the main reason computers can today is because we have millions of examples. As a result, it may be hard to transfer knowledge to more esoteric domains where data is expensive, rare, and ha…

Humans, I would bet, could distinguish between two animals they've never seen based only on a loose or tangential description. I.e. "A dog hunts animals by tracking and chasing them long enough to exhaust their energy, but a cat is opportunistic and strikes using stealth and agility." A human that has never seen a dog or a cat could probably determine which is which based on looking at the two animals and their adapt…

Seems analogous to bouba/kiki effect:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bouba/kiki_effect

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#223

Post by nl »

bubblyworld wrote: post #141
mewpmewp2 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI should obviously be able to do them. But AI being able to do those 100 percent wouldn't be evidence of AGI however. It is a very narrow domain.

Why not? If the only thing that can solve problem X is AGI (e.g. humans), and something else comes along that solves it, then rationally that should be evidence that the something else is AGI right? Unless you have strong prior beliefs (like "computers can't be AGI") or something else that's problem specific ("these problems can be solved by these techniques which don't count as AGI"). So I guess that's my real quest…

> If the only thing that can solve problem X is AGI (e.g. humans), and something else comes along that solves it, then rationally that should be evidence that the something else is AGI right?

No.

Because there might undiscovered ways to solve these problems that no one claims is AGI.

The definition of AGI is notoriously fuzzy, but non-the-less if there was a 10 line python program (with no external dependencies or data) that could solve it then few would argue that was AGI.

So perhaps there is an algorithm that solves these puzzles 100% of the time and can be easily expressed.

So I agree that only being able to solve these problems doesn't define AGI.

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#224

Post by mkl »

1024core wrote: post #69
com2kid wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> humans do not need 10,000 examples to tell the difference between cats and dogs, I swear, not enough people have kids. Now, is it 10k examples? No, but I think it was on the order of hundreds, if not thousands. One thing kids do is they'll ask for confirmation of their guess. You'll be reading a book you've read 50 times before and the kid will stop you, point at a dog in the book, and ask "dog?" And there is a dev…

> I swear, not enough people have kids. My friends toddler, who grew up with a cat in the house, would initially call all dogs "cat". :-D

My niece, 3yo, at the zoo, spent about 30 seconds trying to figure out whether a pig was a cat or a car.

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#226

Post by ben_w »

llm_trw wrote: post #169
theptip wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> humans do not need 10,000 examples to tell the difference between cats and dogs The optimization process that trained the human brain is called evolution, and it took a lot more than 10,000 examples to produce a system that can differentiate cats vs dogs. Put differently, an LLM is pre-trained with very light priors, starting almost from scratch, whereas a human brain is pre-loaded with extremely strong priors.

>The optimization process that trained the human brain is called evolution A human brain that doesn't get visual stimulus at the critical age between 0 and 3 years old will never be able to tell the difference between a cat and a dog because it will be forevermore blind.

Commonly believed, but not so: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070220021337.h...

I heard a similar case before I did my A-levels, so at least 22 years ago, where the person had cateracts removed and it took a while to learn to see, something about having to touch a statue (of a monkey?) before being able to recognise monkeys?

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#227

Post by chx »

I do not trust the current tech bros at all for very, very good reasons even with the current so called "AI" much less with AGI. We shouldn't work towards that until we have fixed the incentives and ethics. This is very hard but think any dystopia and multiply it by a thousand if we were to reach AGI any time soon. Luckily we are not. As Doctorow put it, no matter how good you breed horses they won't give birth to a locomotive.

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#228

Post by fennecbutt »

treprinum wrote: post #225

Why is AGI important? I am worried we will create something slightly better than drosophila and put it in charge of all human-wide decision making...

Good. An AI will probably do a better job than our politicians and disillusioned voters.

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#229

Post by fennecbutt »

salamo wrote: post #21

This is super cool. I share Francois' intuition that the presently data-hungry learning paradigm is not only not generalizable but unsustainable: humans do not need 10,000 examples to tell the difference between cats and dogs, and the main reason computers can today is because we have millions of examples. As a result, it may be hard to transfer knowledge to more esoteric domains where data is expensive, rare, and ha…

Humans don't need those examples because our brains are very pretrained. Natural fear of snakes and snakelike things, etc etc.

ML models are starting from absolute zero, single celled organism level.

Re: ARC Prize – a $1M+ competition towards open AGI progress

#230

Post by larodi »

llm_trw wrote: post #168
com2kid wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> humans do not need 10,000 examples to tell the difference between cats and dogs, I swear, not enough people have kids. Now, is it 10k examples? No, but I think it was on the order of hundreds, if not thousands. One thing kids do is they'll ask for confirmation of their guess. You'll be reading a book you've read 50 times before and the kid will stop you, point at a dog in the book, and ask "dog?" And there is a dev…

Babies, unlike machine learning models, aren't placed in limbo when they aren't running back propagation. Babies need few examples for complex tasks because they get constant infinitely complex examples on tasks which are used for transfer learning. Current models take a nuclear reactors worth of power to run back prop on top of a small countries GDP worth of hardware. They are _not_ going to generalize to AGI becaus…

> Current models take a nuclear reactors worth of power to run back prop on top of a small countries GDP worth of hardware.

Nice one. Perhaps we are to conclude the whole transformer architecture is amazingly overblown in storage/computation costs.

AGI or not, we need better approach to what transformers are doing.

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