Earlier quoted context omitted.
> And I suspect that kind of story will continue quite a bit as the tech matures. Don't you think that this tech can only get better? And that there will come a time in the very near future when the programming capabilities of AI improve substantially over what they are now? After all, AI writing 300 line programs was unheard of a mere 2 years ago. This is what I think GP is ignoring. Spreadsheets couldn't to do ever…
You are extrapolating from when we saw huge improvements 1-2 years ago. Performance improvements have flatlined. Current AI predictions reminds me of self-driving car hype from the mid 2010s
Multimodality, MoE, RAG, open source models, and robotics, have all been/seen massive improvements in the past year alone. OpenAI's Sora is a multi-generational leap over anything we've seen before (not released yet, granted, but it's a real product). This is hardly flatlining.
I'm not even in the AI field, but I'm sure someone can provide more examples.
> Current AI predictions reminds me of self-driving car hype from the mid 2010s
Ironically, Waymo's self-driving taxis were launched in several cities in 2023. Does this count?
I can see AI skepticism is as strong as ever, even amidst clear breakthroughs.