This is a teenager • Hacker News Board

Re: This is a teenager

#221

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:30 PM UTC

smeej wrote: post #208

toomuchtodo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Less kids in households that don't want them. This is a pipeline problem. Intentional children only. Hard topic to cover online, nuance and emotions on the topic. > I volunteer in a local school. It's not always fun, but something has to change. You're a good person doing necessary work. There aren't enough humans doing it, but it matters to who you're helping.

You can change up the emotions on the topic pretty quickly if you change the framing to "intentional sex only" rather than "intentional children only," even though the former accomplishes the latter. It's fun, because you can get virtually everyone to agree that people should only have sex they mean to have, but as soon as you suggest they should only have sex when all parties involved have carefully and accurately a…

[deleted]

Re: This is a teenager

#222

Post by flanbiscuit » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:32 PM UTC

doctorpangloss wrote: post #9

The visualization will frequently incorrectly show something of the form: True True False False True True False False

I thought I just wasn't understanding the visualizations. Glad it wasn't just me.

It also wasn't very clear to me what I was supposed to be noticing in the visualizations that was related to whatever text was currently popped up. In the end I just watched the youtube video that was linked to at the very beginning and it made everything much clearer to me.

Re: This is a teenager

#223

Post by kypro » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:32 PM UTC

gymbeaux wrote: post #200

This should be the measure of our country, rather than the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Incidentally, rehabilitating these traumatized kids-turned-adults would probably have profound positive impacts on the economy (since that's all Jamie Dimon and friends care about).

Not disagreeing with your point that economic metrics often held too highly above others, but Jamie Dimon has commented a lot on the need to tackle inequality. Even if he's doing so for ulterior reasons, I feel like this is an uncharitable representation of his views.

Re: This is a teenager

#224

Post by s1artibartfast » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:33 PM UTC

cardanome wrote: post #96

ericmcer wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Convincing people that their problems are outside of their control and that the only way to solve them is to vote a certain way is also a form of authoritarianism. If you aren't to blame for your own life that implies you have no control over it.

> Convincing people that their problems are outside of their control and that the only way to solve them is to vote a certain way is also a form of authoritarianism Yes, systemic poverty can only be solved politically. That is just the nature of a systemic problem. I am pretty sure encouraging people to be active in the political process of which voting is a small but important part is the opposite of authoritarianis…

I would say that the circle of influence people have is by far the most impactful on their happiness and that of their family. The individual choice to try meth or not will vastly outweigh any genetic or environmental factor on personal outcome. Beating ones children is much more influential than your socioeconomic class.

No a mount of political action can compensate for dissolution of individual responsibilities.

Ideally, they are complementary, but they can easily be antagonists.

Teach a generation of juveniles that they have no agency, and their individual efforts and work, and they will never succeed.

Re: This is a teenager

#225

Post by Freebytes » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:33 PM UTC

Misdicorl wrote: post #197

bsimpson wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand how to practically make this work. There's a strong case to be made that a minimum wage helps people whose value approaches the minimum while hurting people above or below (e.g. $12 and $18 wages in an unlimited market both round to $15 with a minimum, while someone who only produces $7 of value is no longer employable). Similarly with cash infusions - giving people more money is inflationary. Nobo…

My personal position is to abolish the minimum wage and update the tax scale with negative tax rates that support a reasonable quality of life at all income levels. The market will find its own balance for what a true minimum wage is in that environment (and not have weird perverse incentives like you state). Yes, this is UBI. But phrased as a tax cut makes it politically viable (at least in the US).

It is important that this is based on all income levels equally. Yes, some will pay back that money in taxes, but the important part is keeping the amount equal. It would be even more effective if you gave them a monthly check (even if you would eventually take it all back via a consumption tax on people earning more). A ~25% national sales tax should be sufficient to cover a UBI program. (We should still have an income tax, though.) Furthermore, a consumption tax would decrease unnecessary spending since you can target only new products and not used products to encourage people to reduce, reuse, and recycle.

Re: This is a teenager

#226

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:34 PM UTC

no-dr-onboard wrote: post #124

RobCat27 wrote: post #14

I like the message, but I feel like this is bad data visualization. The width of each group of people is not the same, so it's somewhat meaningless to visually compare groups without being able to see the raw percentages. For example, the "Many Adverse Experiences" group is stretched to be longer than the other groups so that proportionally fewer people in that group appear to be a larger proportion than the same pro…

The visualization is a good iteration on trying to get complex papers distilled into a digestible format. That was nice. I'm not super sure how I feel about the message though as it operates on a handful of really big presumptions. I'll share my own bias to save everyone the tldr on where I'm coming from: I'm a parent advocate. I think the nuclear family is the backbone to society and that much, if not every, societa…

> The second presumption is that "abuse" or "adverse experiences" is able to be categorized by the researcher's definition. Again, we're dealing with people of different cultures who have different standards for living. We're overlaying our own "refined" terminology of what constitutes "abuse" or "danger" to them and drawing conclusions. Worse yet, we're saying that those same conclusions are correlated to the conditions that they experienced, regardless of how they themselves would classify it.

I think in this case, it seems they did pretty well. They're not lumping in "people failed to use their pronouns" into it, but things like gun violence, violent crime, and bullying. Some kids might be made of tougher material and shrug that off better, but even for them if that's not an adverse experience, I don't know what could be. It seems like the researchers are using an appropriately conservative definition.

> Maybe it's a good thing that mom divorced the man who was never around.

Yeh, but now we're confusing propaganda that was designed to encourage women to leave abusers for something of statistical significance about another matter entirely. If there are more men who would have made the kids' lives better than there are men so dangerous it's good they were separated from their children, then it doesn't matter that some are bad. The fact that the father has divorced and is out of the picture puts them at a higher risk of poor outcomes.

Re: This is a teenager

#227

Post by worik » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:34 PM UTC

somenameforme wrote: post #189

toomuchtodo wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you suggesting that humanity will die out so long as only willing, intentional parents have children? That is an interesting thesis and conclusion to come to (total fertility rate = 0 vs somewhere between 0 and 2.1 [replacement rate]). We should empower people who want children to succeed, and empower people who don't want children to never have them. What happens after that, we can solve for.

I think many people have a misunderstanding of what lower fertility means. Imagine a country has a fertility rate of 1. It doesn't seem that bad because it's pretty close to replacement. But fertility is an exponential system. So a fertility rate of means that each following generation (~20 years) will be half as large as the one that came before it (the formula is simply a ratio of fertility_rate/2). So you won't se…

> speedrunning the extinction of Western civilization!

Western civilization was always a good idea, never achieved, and they have had their day

Re: This is a teenager

#228

Post by Freebytes » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:34 PM UTC

bsimpson wrote: post #216

Misdicorl wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal position is to abolish the minimum wage and update the tax scale with negative tax rates that support a reasonable quality of life at all income levels. The market will find its own balance for what a true minimum wage is in that environment (and not have weird perverse incentives like you state). Yes, this is UBI. But phrased as a tax cut makes it politically viable (at least in the US).

I would be interested to see this modeled. One of the classic unintended consequences of social welfare is making someone at the bottom unwilling to work. We saw this during the pandemic when people in formerly low-wage jobs got a lot of cash assistance and stopped being interested in low-wage jobs. (Remember all the "help wanted" signs and early closing hours at local restaurants?) I'm curious to see an example scal…

We should not make it more than $1000 per month. Very few would choose to be poor. It would put a lot of pressure on companies to pay decent wages, though.

Re: This is a teenager

#229

Post by theicfire » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:35 PM UTC

imacomputertoo wrote: post #209

The conclusion of this data presentation is that so of these people are our collective responsibility, and I just wasn't convinced. I wish they had shown percentages with the visualization. They choose not to. I was underwhelmed by some points that seemed like they should have been more shocking. Look at the huge number of people in the many adverse experiences category who made it to college, and make a high salary.…

I had very similar takeaways, you said it well!

Re: This is a teenager

#230

Post by markwj » Tue, Apr 16, 2024, 7:35 PM UTC

elil17 wrote: post #25

Anyone else notice how those with the most adverse experiences were both more likely to be depressed and more likely to be happy "all of the time" for the past month? Is this a flaw in the data? What is the causal explanation for this?

Challenges with emotional regulation was my first thought.

I imagine children who grow up in stable environments can better regulate their mood as they can return to a caring parent who will soothe them when they're emotionally dysregulated, compared to those in instable environments.

This might lead to the highs being higher and the lows being lower, a stretching of the bell curve.