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Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

fortune.com

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Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#221

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

panick21_ wrote: post #218
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're really not accounting for scale. My pet peeve is the US military, your pet peeve (might be) subsidized cell phone service for low income people. One of these things is not like the other.

Again. Yes, some people have dumb theories. And yes, military is one of the best places to cut. The point still stands, you simply, can't get there with just military cuts.

Not just ... perhaps. But this is a major part of the puzzle.

Meanwhile, sure I support higher taxes on the middle class up (but MUCH higher taxes on the top 10% and MUCH MUCH higher taxes on the top 1% and above).

That needs to be coupled to a clear vision of what people are going to get as a result.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#222

Post by rajnathani »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #16

We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP. Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income. Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible". We've demonstrated in my lifetime that we can do this. The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else. MMT…

> Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible".

(Side: You’re likely referring to the 90s during Clinton’s administration) Reducing the deficit to 0 barely means anything when the overall debt is high. Besides, for your family example, it’s all well and good but families do not have to be concerned about the valuation of an international currency that they’re basing their borrowing off of.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#223

Post by rajnathani »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #16

We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP. Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income. Last time we reduced the annual deficit to zero, the usual debt hawks all reversed their position and said "this is terrible". We've demonstrated in my lifetime that we can do this. The fact that "we" don't want to right now has more to do with Republican attitudes towards taxation than anything else. MMT…

(Couldn’t edit my previous sibling comment as it is out of the edit period)

> We owe a bit more than 1 year's GDP.

> Most families that own a house owe substantially more than 1 year's income.

Minor nitpick: A country’s income is not the GDP but rather the tax revenue collection. The US federal tax revenue is around $4.5T as of last year, which is just about 20% of the US’s GDP.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#224

Post by toomuchtodo »

matthewaveryusa wrote: post #63
berserk1010 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a valid question. He does have videos where he just speaks off top of his head, and I prefer the ones where he has charts and numbers that he speaks to. If you don't believe his charts and numbers, find ones online that you believe. I do think someone who can hold that much minute, dry details in his brain and can cross reference them is going to be smarter than most of us. He does after all consult for major…

Yeah, he sounds very smart and pieces a lot of things together, but in a very assertive way. For example he goes on to talk about how gas is used only in the butadien petrochemical vertical but could displace oil verticals and have competitive advantage over other countries. That's cool as a theory, but really isn't a commoditized market a more likely scenario in a capitalist global economy? If I'm Mr. Gas I'm going…

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#225

Post by maroonblazer »

keester wrote: post #156
matthewaveryusa wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I started watching and couldn't stop until the end. Now the only question I have is how much should I believe Zeihan? He makes a lot of bold assertions, what's his track record?

Not great. His predictions for the outcome of the Ukraine/Russia war were way off, and I haven't seen a mea culpa video for that just yet. There's a good debate between him and Ian Bremmer somewhere that highlights the flaws in Zeihan's thinking. I don't know what his motive is, probably likes, subscribes, money, etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqsVR9Hl2oQ&t=482s

I listened to this discussion and Bremmer and Zeihan agreed more than they disagreed. What 'flaws' are you referring to?

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#226

Post by specialist »

panick21_ wrote: post #215
specialist wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh. My bad. How do markets work?

People can meet anywhere anytime in private and trade whatever they want and negotiate and that determines the price. And this can easily happen in any country not controlled by the US. So the US military opinion on what the doller should be worth is pretty much irrelevant.

Why do trading partners have to hide their transactions?

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#227

Post by LargeTomato »

jalapenos wrote: post #112
LargeTomato wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which gold standard? There are many. Is everything backed by gold? So no loans, debt, or bonds? This is deflationary because the total value of stuff grows but the monetary base stays the same. Is there a fiat currency backed by gold? How will you avoid the monetary base growing larger than the total quantity of gold in the world? How is this functionally different from today?

The following one: simply remove the fiat, and let the market take over again. I.e. the same way commerce was carried out everywhere for approximately forever. It's presumed a gold standard would return in that scenario, but could be something else. I assume this is how it'll end up naturally though. No one will end up willing to take the other country's currency in cross border trade, so that's where hard currency w…

>I.e. the same way commerce was carried out everywhere for approximately forever.

No! That's not true :) as long as there has been debt there has been fiat. There has been debt since the beginning of commerce. So your system is going to have the same issues. You're "assuming" quite a lot for someone who really shouldn't be assuming anything.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#228

Post by LargeTomato »

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #147
LargeTomato wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our taxes cover entitlements, military, and debt. That's it. Everything else is coming from the deficit. The Republicans have cut taxes to an unsustainable level. No matter how big or small the rest of the government is, the tax base is too low to support it.

> have cut taxes to an unsustainable level Something like half of every dollar I make gets swallowed up by taxes of some sort, either directly or indirectly (by making products and services more expensive). A good portion of it just to fuck around in foreign countries against my wishes. How much more should they take?

> A good portion of it just to fuck around in foreign countries against my wishes. How much more should they take?

Well, if we defunded the military 100% and let the world order go to shit and that's exactly how you want it then we'd still need to raise taxes to cover our deficit.

So go ahead and vilify the military all you want, it's your right. But at least be aware that getting rid of the military is not going to solve the issue.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#229

Post by ifyoubuildit »

LargeTomato wrote: post #228
ifyoubuildit wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> have cut taxes to an unsustainable level Something like half of every dollar I make gets swallowed up by taxes of some sort, either directly or indirectly (by making products and services more expensive). A good portion of it just to fuck around in foreign countries against my wishes. How much more should they take?

> A good portion of it just to fuck around in foreign countries against my wishes. How much more should they take? Well, if we defunded the military 100% and let the world order go to shit and that's exactly how you want it then we'd still need to raise taxes to cover our deficit. So go ahead and vilify the military all you want, it's your right. But at least be aware that getting rid of the military is not going to…

I think you're reading things in my comment that I didn't put there.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#230

Post by pwarner »

neilwilson wrote: post #126

He's wrong. The US debt is just the amount of savings in US dollars that the non-government sector has accumulated from government spending that hasn't yet been paid back in taxes. In other words it is a component of the money supply that allows people to save safely for the future. The problem is the idea that this saving has to be rewarded in some way. It doesn't. The saving will happen anyway for status and insura…

There's such big potential to tax boomer wealth as they die that are are allowing to slip away. It has big potential to reduce the debt.
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