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The rise of batteries in six charts

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Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#221

Post by Vicinity9635 »

Terr_ wrote: post #94
Tade0 wrote: post #67

Regarding price, leading manufacturers are already selling at a price below what was always understood as the point where EVs win in terms of economics: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-w... The recent price war in China is a testament to that.

> the point where EVs win in terms of economics If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many. For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p

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Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#222

Post by erikpukinskis »

DrNosferatu wrote: post #219

Without log axis, this is all very opaque... Also, battery-powered >=737-size passenger airplanes (also not so sure about trains and cargo ships) will need at least a revolution in battery technology - batteries won't do, they're just too heavy for the little energy they output: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_energy_stora...

I doubt there’s any reason why trains couldn’t run on batteries. Anything that either stops and then starts again before refueling, or goes down and then up again before refueling, should be compatible with batteries due to regenerative braking. Trains have both of those properties.

Planes have neither of those properties which is what makes them hard to run off batteries.

Cargo ships also wouldn’t seem to have a problem. My understanding is that the drag on a hull increases sub-linearly relative to displacement. So a 10% increase in displacement might only increase drag by 1%. So it’s unlikely the weight penalty of batteries would be prohibitive.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#223

Post by fbdab103 »

epistasis wrote: post #86
LUmBULtERA wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the dramatically lower costs of utility-scale solar vs. residential rooftop solar, is it not better at a society level for state policy to incentivize utility over residential solar? Utility-scale battery installations likewise should be much cheaper.

This argument ignores the cost of transmission and distribution, which are higher costs than the generation itself. And as electricity prices are driven down even further, T&D will come to dominate over energy generation costs. Few models account for this, but Christopher Clack made one, and the lowest cost energy path was a small amount of investment in distribution now, paired with massive deployment of solar on ho…

Wouldn't that mean further subsidizing rich homeowners?

The people best positioned to take advantage of incentives own their own home and have the disposable cash to make the initial outlay for residential generation.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#224

Post by fbdab103 »

alted wrote: post #201
aswanson wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the theoretical limits of electrical energy density?

Excellent question! A sufficiently advanced battery can theoretically beat gasoline. Any given energy storage technology can store a maximum amount of energy in a fixed volume or mass. Behold one of my favorite plots: [1] From lowest to highest energy density: - springs, which use mechanical elastic potential energy, are kinda horrible - capacitors, which use electric permittivity, aren't great - next are both batter…

That is indeed a fun chart.

One thing I wanted to add is that fat (lipids) are much more energy dense than glucose. ~38 Mj/kg, though I am not sure what fraction of that the body recovers. Which makes sense, you want to maintain your long-term storage in a denser format.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#225

Post by xxs »

alted wrote: post #201
aswanson wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the theoretical limits of electrical energy density?

Excellent question! A sufficiently advanced battery can theoretically beat gasoline. Any given energy storage technology can store a maximum amount of energy in a fixed volume or mass. Behold one of my favorite plots: [1] From lowest to highest energy density: - springs, which use mechanical elastic potential energy, are kinda horrible - capacitors, which use electric permittivity, aren't great - next are both batter…

Fuel(gasoline, carbohydrates, fats, etc. but not rocket one) does use oxygen from the atmosphere.Batteries are self contained (like rocket fuel).

So the density of chemical reactions is by definition higher.

Side note: energy density should apply to volume, not weight, but we'll - it is too common now.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#226

Post by ketzo »

fbdab103 wrote: post #223
epistasis wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument ignores the cost of transmission and distribution, which are higher costs than the generation itself. And as electricity prices are driven down even further, T&D will come to dominate over energy generation costs. Few models account for this, but Christopher Clack made one, and the lowest cost energy path was a small amount of investment in distribution now, paired with massive deployment of solar on ho…

Wouldn't that mean further subsidizing rich homeowners? The people best positioned to take advantage of incentives own their own home and have the disposable cash to make the initial outlay for residential generation.

Yep, it definitely would. It doesn't mean we shouldn't still do it -- especially because richer folks tend to use more electricity and pollute more in general.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#227

Post by ketzo »

mbgerring wrote: post #178
xbmcuser wrote: post #115

This is why I say electricity revolution is coming and a lot people and countries are going to be shell shocked by it. Solar and wind electricity costs are also decreasing at a similar rate.

It’s already here, it’s been here for a decade, renewables are a mature industry. They’ve already effectively destroyed the economics of coal, and natural gas is next.

I was gonna say "then why did China add so much coal last year", because I remembered reading that they added something like 50GW of coal, even as they added more than 150GW renewable.

But as of Jan 1 2024, they also had to introduce a financial incentive just to keep coal plants online, because otherwise the coal plants can't compete on price, just like you said! Some weird economics going on here, but it seems like China is still adding coal just to maximize total power deployed, even if it's uneconomic at the margins.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-guarantee-payments...

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#228

Post by AtlasBarfed »

zardo wrote: post #72
Tade0 wrote: post #67

Regarding price, leading manufacturers are already selling at a price below what was always understood as the point where EVs win in terms of economics: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-w... The recent price war in China is a testament to that.

> Tesla will be saving $800 in LFP battery costs within 6 months and another $800 within about 18 months. Do they have a model using LiFePOs now?

And 200 wh/kg LFP and 160 wh/kg sodium ion is coming into mass production.

To the main parent, the runway for further EV drivetrain cost reductions is at least a decade more. The LFP and sodium ion production roadmaps have almost 200 wh/kg sodium ion and 230 wh/kg LFP on it, so that is reasonably a five year likelihood.

10-20 year is solid state, sulfur techs, and other chemistries poised to double or triple density of the cells.

The first curve shows the really low commercial vehicle demand on batteries. This will not be the case, commercial vehicles from busses to worksite vehicles to town delivery vans are going to goddamn explode in demand, once all the business owners realize the TCO of EV drivetrains is so low.

I've been pretty disappointed in electric companies, perhaps they are pricing in grid adaptation, but wind and solar should be relentlessly driving down the cost of electricity and something is up with that.

The dual headed dragon of economies of scale/density in batteries combined with the price drop in electricity for wind/solar is something that ICEs simply cannot win against.

Which is why I chuckle at every mainstream media article about EV sales fluctuations or anti-EV stories, or the inevitable "I can't charge because Apartment/Parking Garage/City". People, this is an economic tsunami coming, and it has already started. All those infrastructure problems will be solved.

The "I rent" is the most mystifying thing, indicative of local governments not getting ahead of this. What should be cheaper to wire up, a suburban development sprawled over 10 square miles, or 100 cars in a one block radius? Governments need to be incentivizing apartment charging pronto.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#229

Post by AtlasBarfed »

cogman10 wrote: post #134
tonymet wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why aren't consumers seeing this price yet?

Demand far outstrips manufacturing capacity at the moment. For batteries not put in EVs a slightly lower price will get them installed in grid storage solutions. Consumers will be the last to see lower prices while demand outpaces supply.

YEah it's been frustrating. Those two stroke horror shows in leafblowing/lawnmowing/etc need to be cycled out, but e-tools are still priced as luxury.

I'm hoping in about 5 years, especially with sodium ion in production, that changes.

The really cool thing about battery production is that it's not like an ICE engine where you have to design an ICE for this size application and an ICE for that size application: the batteries can be used in a leaf blower, a moped, a car, a truck, or a massive grid.

The battery supply can be routed wherever needed. That should result in a vastly cheaper overall industry than the ICE drivetrain industry. Sure you need different electric motors, but those aren't THAT different, and the industrial world has already been building all the necessary sizes and variations for a century now.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#230

Post by bsder »

jbm wrote: post #93
bsder wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There has been a massive decline in rooftop solar applications in CA since solar energy reimbursements dropped People also learned that the cheap Chinese solar cells die in 5-10 years and aren't worth installing unless your electricity costs are really high.

Is this something documented? I haven't heard of this and I've been following the space for a while.

Mostly installers--probably about 7-10 years ago back when the American manufacturers got pushed out of the market by the Chinese ones.

A lot of the installers got out of the business knowing they were on the hook when the warrantees came calling.

Although, American manufacturers have been restarting since Biden adjusted some of the tariffs in 2023.

We'll see if they go back to producing a decent product or if they just try to shovel garbage like China.

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