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$10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

aimoprize.com

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Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sample size 1. Here's what Andrew Wiles, the only other person to have solved a Millennium-class problem has to say of math competition: "Let me stress that creating new mathematics is a quite different occupation from solving problems in a contest. Why is this? Because you don't know for sure what you are trying to prove or indeed whether it is true."

Sample size > 1 for sure, Terence Tao comes to mind, as well as Dr. Maryam Mirzakhani. Nobody argues it's the same, after all MO problems are designed to be solved in ~an hour, but we are talking about mental capabilities.

[deleted]

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am familiar with strategy stealing and things like tit-for-tat. But even the wiki article you linked suggests that Go is not a symmetric game, which is the requisite condition for strategy stealing to work (which was my underlying belief albeit (very) poorly worded). The wiki suggests both ladder and ko fights create an asymmetry as well as central control. Not to mention Komi explicitly making it asymmetric. First…

The passing is the important part. In chess you can't pass so going first might be bad, you could be the first to reach a forced zugzwang. If you have the option of passing your first turn, then having a turn before the 2nd player gets to go is at worst neutral for you. Likewise in Nim you can't pass and taking your turn might be bad for you unlike Hex.

Sorry, I'm not quite following, there seems to be a disconnection.

First, I thought going first in chess is generally considered an advantage. Even the wiki article states that. Or at least says there's a 10% increased win rate.

Second, I still don't get why passing is the important aspect. I thought the important aspect is symmetry. I mean I can understand this in nim since that symmetry is that killer aspect that makes for the easy analysis of a solution.

When I said I'm not a game theory person I didn't mean I have no game theory experience but that's not what I study. I'm on the mathy side of ML but not so much in RL. You can use math with me if that makes things easier (in fact, I love math. Please do. RL notation doesn't scare me but rather weirds me out that it scares others) because I think we're getting lost in the conditions.

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#223
post #21

How does this relate to the "IMO Grand Challenge" https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ ? Is this a new name / formalization, with prize money attached, or is it entirely independent? (E.g. I see Kevin Buzzard and Leonardo de Moura listed on both that page and at https://aimoprize.com/supporters )

Answering my own question: Alex Gerko (who's behind the $10M prize here) says:

> "It came about as me checking on the status of IMO Grand Challenge (which was launched in 2019 https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) and deciding that it's time to give this idea a boost"

https://twitter.com/AlexanderGerko/status/172920793662562733...

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The passing is the important part. In chess you can't pass so going first might be bad, you could be the first to reach a forced zugzwang. If you have the option of passing your first turn, then having a turn before the 2nd player gets to go is at worst neutral for you. Likewise in Nim you can't pass and taking your turn might be bad for you unlike Hex.

Sorry, I'm not quite following, there seems to be a disconnection. First, I thought going first in chess is generally considered an advantage. Even the wiki article states that. Or at least says there's a 10% increased win rate. Second, I still don't get why passing is the important aspect. I thought the important aspect is symmetry. I mean I can understand this in nim since that symmetry is that killer aspect that m…

Oh yeah, in chess going 1st is 100% definitely an advantage. For example, pawn to a4 is a really bad opener because its so close to throwing away that advantage by passing your first turn. Its just that the rules permit that taking a turn can force you into a worse position than you started, and you can't prove the starting position isn't like that. So from a proof perspective the empirical truth that going first is really good is not particularly helpful. The passing thing is weird because it empirically is a bad idea, it just closes a theoretical loophole.

I'm not a mathematician myself, just got into this stuff when I was working on a boardgame solver. I find it difficult to map the 'symmetric game' definition "the payoffs for playing a particular strategy depend only on the other strategies employed, not on who is playing them" onto a turn based game, but if it can work for Hex it must be compatible.

If you consider a strategy to be "a decision tree for how to place stones, when I'm playing as 2nd", then there's perfect symmetry between being 1st and choosing to immediately pass, and being 2nd. The possible strategies and resulting payoffs are the same. You add on top the extra move, which the possibility of passing means is at worst neutral for 1st player, and they cannot be at a disadvantage.

More intuitively for me: being allowed to pass your first move is the same as getting to pick which side you want to play. There's no way the side who can pick to play 1st or 2nd at their option can be at a forced loss to the side who just has to accept their decision. The picker would just pick the other side and now they have a forced win.

(I'm always assuming above any kind of infinite-pass-standoff is a draw, and not some kind of weird other thing).

If I haven't expressed my thoughts clearly enough that's probably about as well as I can manage I'm afraid.

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think its pretty clear that in the coming decade intelligence and cognitive labor is going to become very cheap. So your kid should develop some skills outside of that to stay competitive in the job market.

Any suggestions?

Plumber

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#226

It would be cool to have a Patreon-like system for math proofs. But to reward solvers appropriately and at scale, the award conditions and evaluation would have to be very formalized and specific. This seems to be one potential, actually useful application of blockchains which support general purpose computing - if you can port a proof verifier onto them, you give anyone the ability to commit to (and claim) proof bou…

> This seems to be one potential, actually useful application of blockchain... No. Blockchain and anything crypto has absolutely no use case at all other than speculation, please stop suggesting this solution in search of a problem.

One: anonymous[1] method of payment online. Maybe this is not a problem you like, but your statement is trivially false.

[1] pseudonymous (in case of BTC) if we're being pedantic.

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I'm not quite following, there seems to be a disconnection. First, I thought going first in chess is generally considered an advantage. Even the wiki article states that. Or at least says there's a 10% increased win rate. Second, I still don't get why passing is the important aspect. I thought the important aspect is symmetry. I mean I can understand this in nim since that symmetry is that killer aspect that m…

Oh yeah, in chess going 1st is 100% definitely an advantage. For example, pawn to a4 is a really bad opener because its so close to throwing away that advantage by passing your first turn. Its just that the rules permit that taking a turn can force you into a worse position than you started, and you can't prove the starting position isn't like that. So from a proof perspective the empirical truth that going first is…

> I find it difficult to map the 'symmetric game' definition "the payoffs for playing a particular strategy depend only on the other strategies employed, not on who is playing them" onto a turn based game,

Yeah so probably the better way to think about it might be with the payoff matrix. Because symmetry is actually about the strategy. That's why there are the notes about the laddering in Go. But the payoff of a symmetric game is actually when A = -A^T. So if we have a 2x2 game a symmetric zero-sum one is where the payoff matrix might look like [[0, 1], [-1, 0]] Where we're like an inverse-identity matrix (actually anti-symmetric) but the diagonals are opposite. Maybe it is best to think about this from a geometric perspective, this symmetry here (in this specific example) is a rotation matrix. That's what it does when applied to another matrix. Recall our standard form is [[cos(theta), -sin(theta)],[sin(theta), cos(theta)]]. Pretty easy to get our matrix from there if you remember that cos(90)=cos(180)=0 and sin(90)=1 but sin(180)=-1. So our angle of rotation is 180 degrees (or pi radians). You could also see that if we made the two columns vectors we'd see they pointed in opposite directions. That's the symmetry! Okay, yeah, maybe that's confusing lol. But I find it helpful to see matrices as transforms and I wish this was stated a bit more clearly and often.

So now that we maybe understand that, symmetry is about a __strategy__, not a player. Because our payoff matrix is strategy based. For example, our strategy for rock-paper-scissors is to pick each outcome 1/3 of the time, which gives us this symmetric payoff. But if we pick rock every time we don't get that payoff, right? So it's actually not about who goes first or second but also includes the strategy aspect.

At least that's my understanding which a lot is prompted by this conversation (thanks!)

The reason I'm finding the go argument hard is thinking of a basic "entropy" based strategy (it'll serve you well in boardgames, especially when sight reading). The idea is if you don't know the best move, play the move that gives you the most future moves. It'll trick you into thinking that this strategy is actually simple, it isn't. So in the game of Go, this isn't reasonably different from making a random move! Because there are just so many. And realistically your strategy is going to be the composition of many different strategies. Like you said, pull out the decision tree but we can actually abstract this a bit more and have a decision strategy tree that's a superset to our strategy that's a response (e.g. a ladder is set up so we play the laddering strategy). The reason I'm not buying the argument isn't about the logic, it is about the possible move sets. Even with super-ko (the board cannot return to a state it has previously been at any time in the game (must be fun to keep track of...)). So forgetting about all the extras that are played in go, passing shouldn't result in a meaningful change in the number of possible strategies. But this argument might actually be an argument in favor of symmetry, not against it. Coming back to Chess, we know that game __is not__ symmetric. Why? Because white has different strategies than black. If instead the first "move" is to flip a coin and that decides who is white and who is black, then the game actually becomes symmetric. Kinda wild...

I didn't read this, but a glance suggests that black dominates in smaller games

http://erikvanderwerf.tengen.nl/pubdown/thesis_erikvanderwer...

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#228
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a weighted average over the prompts and data. Mediocrity is exactly what we'd expect from such an approach. Now, if we end up seeing mastery, that would be extremely interesting.

This is a very mediocre understanding of deep learning :)

What else is it then? Basically all statistical models are weighted averages. I'm not sure why deep learning would be any different.

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#229
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's 300 words for saying "in order for n to satisfy the requirements, it must satisfy the requirements." I tried an easier problem, extending Rolle's theorem to the multidimensional case with Poe.com: Prompt: Let U be an open subset of R^n with compact closure K. Suppose f: K → R is continuous on K, differentiable on U, and satisfies f(x) = 0, for all x in K \ U. Show that there exists a in U with grad f (a) = 0.…

https://chat.openai.com/share/f710b53c-1d87-4228-8940-f48ec6... GPT-4 for me solves it.

That is impressive! It does look like a textbook question so I wouldn’t be surprised if a formulation almost identical to this is in the training data. But the ability to parse the “mathiness” is still impressive.

Higher level math becomes pretty verbose so enters the domain of language more so than pure symbolic computation. However there is still complex reasoning under the hood. Gpt-4 in ChatGPT flounders when I ask it questions from my thesis, so I’m not sure how it will do with problems it hasn’t seen, where it needs to apply “new” reasoning.

I’d love to know if in your example, GPT is reciting something it’s seem verbatim, or if it is taking multiple sources and combing them.

Re: $10M AI Mathematical Olympiad Prize

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This seems to be one potential, actually useful application of blockchain... No. Blockchain and anything crypto has absolutely no use case at all other than speculation, please stop suggesting this solution in search of a problem.

One: anonymous[1] method of payment online. Maybe this is not a problem you like, but your statement is trivially false. [1] pseudonymous (in case of BTC) if we're being pedantic.

This is great use case for criminals.
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