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Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

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Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#221

Post by Aeolun »

reddog wrote: post #143
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

> including current faves Austin and Miami Austin has 2.57 murders and nonnegligent manslaughters per 100K. Same year, SF has 6.35 per 100K. So SF is twice as bad as Austin. Your right about Miami though. But 6.35 isn't bad. The murder rate in St Louis (for comparision to the US city with the worst) is 66.07 per 100K. And Colima Mexico (worst in the world maybe) is 182 murders per 100K. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/…

For comparison, Japan has 0.3, the UK has 1.1 and France has 1.3.

I know they’re in the linked table, just wanted to mention that even the best city in the US is still relatively bad.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#224

Post by freejazz »

nemo44x wrote: post #61
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

> I wonder how likely it is that the same population will comment here to say, "I was wrong"? Sure, people were wrong in their assumption that the murder was random. At least that's how it looks now. We haven't heard the suspects side, but.... But wrong that SF has become a dangerous and mismanaged city? Murder isn't the only violent crime and a lot of crime goes unreported. People don't feel safe walking around and…

>People don't feel safe walking around and you can't just dismiss that. It's their "lived experience". The fact that everyone assumed that Bob Lee was murdered randomly says something about the state of the city.

It definitely says something about the people that made that assumption. But this is just tautologic - it's unsafe because I feel unsafe, and I feel unsafe because it is unsafe. As a NY'er, this seems like a ton of whining by people that never actually encountered any actual threatening, so they make these whiny, dramatic, histrionic arguments about how the city is "beyond" saving, using all sorts of overhyped rhetoric.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#225

Post by bitwize »

stickfigure wrote: post #135
cemerick wrote: post #2

This news really highlights the confirmation bias that was in full bloom throughout the "discourse" around the initial reports of Lee's murder (e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35448899 ). Everyone is so quick to jump on negative news about the rare violent crime in e.g. SF thanks to feelings about petty property crime that it's obviously impossible to have any kind of fact-based dialogue about policy. Worth…

It feels a bit like you're championing a narrative of "See, it's not so bad! You'll just get your stuff stolen and your car vandalized!" I wouldn't feel so smug about that. I lived in SF for ~15 years, experienced multiple car breakins (when I had a car) and one weird guy who walked up to me on the street and said "I have a gun and I'm going to shoot you" (which I somehow calmly ignored). For the record, I didn't com…

> It feels a bit like you're championing a narrative of "See, it's not so bad! You'll just get your stuff stolen and your car vandalized!" I wouldn't feel so smug about that.

"You can be mad but I guess I don’t personally view my car as an extension of myself and I’ve never really felt violated any of the 15 or so times my car was broken in to. Once a guy accidentally left a cool knife in my car so if it keeps happening you might get a little treat." --Seth Rogen

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#226

Post by seizethecheese »

danso wrote: post #108

The SF-is-a-hellhole narrative is compelling, but the report that Lee was not the victim of a random crime shouldn't have been surprising. The FBI says 40+% of murders are committed by a family member or acquaintance, and 10% by total strangers: https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...

Yep. Classic error of not starting with the correct base rate when reasoning about an event, but instead going with what was most emotionally salient.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#227

Post by bigtex88 »

cemerick wrote: post #182
idopmstuff wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with saying that SF has relatively low violent crime is that it ignores the constant, extremely aggressive verbal assault that people are just accustomed to. In the years I lived there, I had people scream at me that they were going to kill/stab/etc. me at least a couple of dozen times (I would describe this as violent crime). Of course, if you call SFPD, they'll just tell you it's not an issue and ignore…

You're right, "violent crime" is a term of art that involves the commission of a…crime. "Verbal assault" is not assault. I guess if you don't like the vibes in a place, you can go somewhere else, but trying to use such things to influence how people talk about or perceive actual , no, for real crime is intellectual malpractice.

You've got a really weird black and white view of these things. As long as people aren't literally murdering you then it's ok? The idea that "real crime" only happens AFTER the actual crime has taken place is super bizarre. That's not how the world works.

Go find me a city that has people that are super happy and nice to each other and also has a high murder rate. Wait, I bet you can't.

Talking about the petty crime and the "vibe" is absolutely on topic for this, because that sort of laissez-faire attitude leads to murders like the one we're discussing.

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#229

Post by [deleted] »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #116
Swizec wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument I made to all my friends in this debate (but not publicly) was along the lines of “tech exec found dead at 2:30am near his home in an upscale neighborhood with zero night-time activity … that doesn’t sound random” My guess was drug deal gone wrong. But tech deal gone wrong makes sense too, I guess. edit: my drug guess was before the person was named, not implying anything, just know drugs are a popular h…

It could still have been a drug deal - some companies have a guy who is the "hookup." The problem with the discourse was that everyone forgot that people basically never get randomly murdered. There's almost always a reason for a murder - number 1 is domestic disputes, number 2 is gang-related, and the list goes on, but almost nobody gets murdered randomly. Assaults and thefts are a different story, and SF's problem…

[deleted]

Re: Arrest made in SF killing of Bob Lee – alleged killer also worked in tech

#230

Post by PragmaticPulp »

mztwo wrote: post #22

As the news media and twitterverse peddled the whole "crime-ridden SF" angle, I felt myself getting drawn into the same topic and agreeing with numerous friends on how much the city has declined. This is a good reminder of how we gravitate towards powerful emotional narratives, which in the moment can feel absolutely true despite an utter lack of supporting facts on an individual murder case. I hope this brings some…

> This is a good reminder of how we gravitate towards powerful emotional narratives, which in the moment can feel absolutely true despite an utter lack of supporting facts on an individual murder case.

It seems equally weird to me that so many people are taking this anecdote as a sort of proof that San Francisco does not have a crime problem.

Focusing on individual anecdotes and swinging from one conclusion to another is the real problem. The source of this unfortunate murder shouldn’t dictate your entire view of a city’s crime problem.

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