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Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

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Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that the effective altruism crowd are focused exclusively on AI safety, at least in what they publish online. If they talked about all possible threats to humanity and how to solve them, from AI, to climate change, to nuclear bombs, to asteroids, to disease, they would be an interesting and important group. They don't. They hardly talk about anything else except AI. From the outside it looks a lot like a…

> The issue is that the effective altruism crowd are focused exclusively on AI safety, at least in what they publish online. Just looking at the topics section of the EA forums ( https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/all ), we've got - 466 posts in AI safety - 1060 posts in existential risk (seems like a roughly even mix of pandemics, nuclear war, and AI) - 816 posts in global health - 193 posts in animal welfar…

> 42 posts in biosecurity & pandemics

The way the EA forum handles parent topics is confusing, but this is only counting posts tagged with the top-level label. It has several subcategories, and there are hundreds of posts when you include them:

* 218: Biosecurity

* 176: Covid

* 54: Pandemic preparedness

* 40: Global catastrophic biological risk

* 39: Vaccines

* 20: Biotech

* 16: Life sciences

* 11: Dual-use

* 10: Biosurveillance

(Posts can have multiple labels, so the above list double-counts a bit. I don't see an easy way to extract the actual count from the forum, but it's at least 218, the count for the largest category.)

Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The issue is that the effective altruism crowd are focused exclusively on AI safety, at least in what they publish online. Just looking at the topics section of the EA forums ( https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/all ), we've got - 466 posts in AI safety - 1060 posts in existential risk (seems like a roughly even mix of pandemics, nuclear war, and AI) - 816 posts in global health - 193 posts in animal welfar…

didn't really have much of a dog in this fight, but looking at that breakdown I wonder which oil company is bankrolling them. I know I'm jumping the gun just a little, but c'mon. An apocalypse list without climate?

> An apocalypse list without climate?

The topics listing isn't great, but there's been a lot of discussion about climate change on the forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/climate-change (239 posts)

Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#223
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

didn't really have much of a dog in this fight, but looking at that breakdown I wonder which oil company is bankrolling them. I know I'm jumping the gun just a little, but c'mon. An apocalypse list without climate?

Climate change is unlikely to kill everyone on earth. Other risks, such as an engineered pandemic, asteroid impact, or an AI apocalypse have the possibility of killing ~everyone. This is not saying that climate change is not a real issue.

So what you're saying is that if a risk can totally upend our society, destroy most of our cities, make most of our farmland unusable, destabilize geopolitics in a way that's almost certain to lead to war between nuclear powers (who also have the ability to engineer deadly diseases), and massively disrupt every ecosystem on earth, and that there's enough evidence to say with almost complete certainty that this will come to pass without massive societal and political change and technological intervention... but it's unlikely to kill everyone... then it doesn't really deserve mention?

Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's about the risk that an AI smarter than us will be made and built to pursue some goal without caring about our well-being. We already have those and they're called corporations. They've done significant real damage to the world already and they are still working hard to do more damage. It makes little sense to me to focus on this potential future problem when we haven't even agreed to deal with the ones that we…

I'm not sure these issues are in conflict. Corporations cause lots of harm despite being held back by their dependence on people who control them, who can occasionally put the brakes on some of their worst excesses, and by their inability to recursively self-improve their intelligence. Removing these two handicaps on corporations would allow them to do significantly more damage, so preventing this from happening is i…

> inability recursively self-improve their intelligence

It is not for lack of trying, corporations modify themselves all the time. That they are quite often unsuccessful at making meaningful improvement should be taken as a prior against the idea that an AI will inherently be better at it.

Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been people for a long time who think the world is going to end. We can use your argument to dismiss anyone who fears any existential risk like asteroids, nuclear war, climate change, AI, etc... And since the world exists every group will be wrong except one. I think the risk of human extermination is much lower than many in this group believe because I think AI is much more compute bound than algorithm bo…

> The existential risks for AI seem much higher What’s the upper bound for climate change’s existential risks? The end of human existence and society as we know it except for a relatively small number of survivors living in a world those of us alive today can barely imagine?

There is no realistic scenario provided for by current scientific knowledge that would lead to that outcome. Waterworld was a film, not a textbook.

Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#227
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EAs premise includes basically "all human lives are equal. Saving one stranger's life is just as valuable as saving your father's life (more valuable actually if the stranger has more years left than your dad), so you should donate your kidney to a stranger, not your father" "All human lives are equal" then expands to "and there are more unborn lives than there are currently living lives, so it's more important to sa…

How they value unborn future lives also veers into absurdity when you realize that the logical goal from a utilitarian perspective then is to populate the universe with trillions upon trillions of humans, just as long as each human at least has some infinitesimally small net happiness. You don't need them to be particularly happy, just happy enough to barely not want to kill themselves. I think I'd rather prioritize…

Not all utilitarian roads lead to the repugnant conclusion. Ex. being "in favor of making people happy but neutral about making happy people" is another valid answer. A pure negative utilitarian is the other extreme - we shouldn't make any more lives at all, because every new person (& animal?) will inevitably suffer during their existence.

Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#228

AI safety is an apocalypse cult and we should recognize that everyone who has ever been in an apocalypse cult thinks that "no, this time it's really the end of the world". Everyone who believes crazy shit thinks they're being reasonable, so just because we're super sure we're being reasonable doesn't mean what we believe isn't crazy. Do we believe that we alone, of all people who have believed in the coming end, have…

There have been people for a long time who think the world is going to end. We can use your argument to dismiss anyone who fears any existential risk like asteroids, nuclear war, climate change, AI, etc... And since the world exists every group will be wrong except one. I think the risk of human extermination is much lower than many in this group believe because I think AI is much more compute bound than algorithm bo…

Numbers used to justify ignoring common sense

Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to a survey 700 ML researchers, we should throw money at their subject or we might all die...

With great power comes great responsibility. If we start plugging ML everywhere - which we are currently doing - we better be sure that it is behaving as expected.

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Re: Effective Altruism’s obsession with AI safety helps bury bad behavior

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only that, but we've managed to subvert our reward functions in exactly the way AI safety people fear. Evolution tried to get us to reproduce as much as possible, and we came up with ways to get the reward without producing offspring.

That’s a pretty naive understanding of sex. In human history sex has often played as important a role in bonding, community, and social hierarchy as it has in child production. These things are beneficial for survival. It’s very common for evolution to result in redirected drives.

> It’s very common for evolution to result in redirected drives.

Yes, that's pretty much the point.

And most likely, humans will have a pretty naive understanding of whatever motivates a superintelligent AI.

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