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Normalization of Deviance (2015)

danluu.com

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Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#221
post #107

“Let's say you notice that your company has a problem that I've heard people at most companies complain about: people get promoted for heroism and putting out fires, not for preventing fires.” My first day at work at big-laser-company. Manufacturing engineer for a laser (then) so complex, it required a PhD to solve problems to get units out the door. The product was a ring laser. What that means is that the laser bea…

One of the key questions in my due diligence practice is whether people are allowed to 'be negative' and to literally stop the line to avoid shipping a defective product. This one question tends to separate out a very large fraction of companies that take unacceptable risks and allows the ones that don't to be justifiably proud of their attitude towards risk. These are not trivial things either, medical devices and s…

Do you actually use the phrase "be negative" when you ask the question? I could see that distorting the responses by people who don't consider pulling the cord to stop the line "being negative."

Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#222
Here are a few examples from real-world history that reflect problems discussed in the article:

- The Space Shuttle Challenger disaster in 1986 was caused by the normalization of deviance, where engineers became accustomed to problems with the O-ring seals and began to accept them as normal. This led to the eventual catastrophic failure of the shuttle's launch, killing all seven crew members.

- The 2008 financial crisis was caused in part by a normalization of deviance in the banking industry, where risky and complex financial instruments were routinely used without proper oversight or understanding of the potential risks. This led to a widespread collapse of the financial system and a global economic recession.

- The Volkswagen emissions scandal in 2015 was caused by a normalization of deviance in the automotive industry, where engineers and executives became accustomed to cheating emissions tests and misleading customers about the true environmental impact of their vehicles. This led to significant financial and reputational damage to the company.

- The Theranos scandal in 2018 was caused by a normalization of deviance in the healthcare industry, where the company's leaders became accustomed to misrepresenting the capabilities of their blood testing technology and misleading investors and customers about its accuracy. This led to significant legal and financial repercussions for the company and its executives. (ChatGPT)

Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#223
post #107

“Let's say you notice that your company has a problem that I've heard people at most companies complain about: people get promoted for heroism and putting out fires, not for preventing fires.” My first day at work at big-laser-company. Manufacturing engineer for a laser (then) so complex, it required a PhD to solve problems to get units out the door. The product was a ring laser. What that means is that the laser bea…

They proved you wrong, at great cost. A more correct and polite version of your advice: "It will cost us a lot more to ship this as-is, and fix it later, than it will to delay shipment and fix it now. Is it too late to do that? Did we over-commit to shipping now?" It wasn't your responsibility to come up with that version. It was your manager's responsibility. It was also their responsibility to find the necessary de…

I have seen this far too often in engineering projects. The push is to get the product out the door and turn it over from R&D to production engineering. Never mind the final quality, that will be fixed in the field by another department with a different budget. We got a product shipped; our department's reputation and budget is intact.

Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#224
Our society places an enormous value on "competitive obfuscation".

As an obvious result, our society does an incredible amount of work maintaining that obfuscation.

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I've heard estimates that 20% (1/5th) of all healthcare-related spending in the US is overhead from insurance determinations, paperwork, etc., and that that 25% (25%/125%=1/5th) extra spending (relative to 100% of the rest of healthcare expenditure) does not exist in single-payer healthcare systems, like those used in Canada, Germany, and every other developed nation in the world.

What do we get from that extra spending? What substantive difference does that obfuscation provide?

The main difference I see is "explicit opportunity cost". Instead of deciding ahead of time that we will pay for any arbitrary healthcare need (as a single-payer program), the opportunity for each individual healthcare act is given a price, and groups of priced opportunities are provided by subscription-based insurance plans.

Every person has to find, apply for, and pay for an insurance plan that will meet their current and future healthcare needs.

Because that is explicit, there is leverage available to manipulate each opportunity cost, and even the opportunity of each person to have that opportunity provided to them.

So what does that leverage even look like, and who is using it, and for what purpose?

Politics. Instead of care being determined by your doctor, access to each type of care is explicitly made available (or unavailable) by your insurance plan. That's a huge attack surface for political motivation.

There is currently a dextroamphetamine (Adderall) shortage in the US. The other day, I went to my pharmacy to pick up my prescription for 30 generic Concerta (methylphenidate extended release, another stimulant medication used for ADHD), and learned that all they had left were 16 brand-name Concerta. I was lucky enough to have that covered by my insurance. Many different insurance plans would not have provided me that opportunity.

Why is there a shortage? Despite a significant increase in ADHD diagnosis last year, the DEA refused to raise the limit of Adderall that can be legally manufactured. Why? Because there is a long-standing political conflict between stimulant addiction prevention and ADHD treatment, and the DEA is positioned at one side of it.

That same political conflict is why some insurance companies have outright refused to include coverage for stimulant medications. Even without a nationwide shortage, some people have found themselves stuck in a position where the opportunity for medication is held just out of reach by the political decision of their insurance company, or the lack of access to insurance at all.

The same pattern can be found with practically every type of medical care that is politically controversial: contraceptives, abortions, hormones, etc. Even if you can't get a legislative ban, there is still leverage available to obfuscate opportunity itself.

When conservative politicians argue that a single-payer program would be "too socialist for America", the substantive difference they intend to preserve is the political leverage that is baked into the system we have; the political leverage that allows politics to restrict our medical care without a single vote.

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That's just one example. This pattern is everywhere. The only answer is social objectivity. It's a hard problem.

Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#225
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jidoka [1] is a key feature of Toyota's manufacturing process that emphasizes detecting defects before they make it out the door and empowering workers to stop the line and get to the root of the problem. It's weird that this isn't a no-brainer for most orgs but I guess there's enough profit incentive in shipping faster at the cost of quality. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomation

Yes, it's worked really well for them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%932011_Toyota_vehic... . I worked for a company that swallowed the (so-called) Toyota schtick hook, line, and sinker. About 14 years ago I tolerated some Toyota UK fossil coming in and berating me, in front of my entire team, for being a crap project manager, in spite of I was the most reliable and accurate product manager said (very succ…

I'd like to apologise for the overly aggressive tone of this comment: I was drunk when I posted it. I have long since learned that drunk posting is a bad idea and yet, sometimes, I still am unable to resist that temptation. Anyway, this post isn't kind, and whilst I do have some issues with the TPS and think Toyota's history is often misrepresented, nobody needs to read a frothy mouthed rant about it.

Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how speed of the change is related to batches. The “batch” is related to “due this week”, there never was a single item in this list. “Speed” is related to “due which week”, that depends mostly on the priority of the change, not on how easy it is. Upd. And “change menu items order, fast” is a sign of a problem. We found Mac Cube in ski vacation rental home once. It ran MacOS 10.2 or something. All the menu i…

By running the exercise with a small change the constraints and behavior of the rest of the process get emphasized. As an example, in one team their test process was entirely manual and took a month. They ran that entire test suite for every release, whether the release should have affected the requirements being tested or not. Why? Mostly because they didn't know what changes in the release would affect what require…

> As an example, in one team their test process was entirely manual and took a month.

Ouch!

Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#227
post #107

“Let's say you notice that your company has a problem that I've heard people at most companies complain about: people get promoted for heroism and putting out fires, not for preventing fires.” My first day at work at big-laser-company. Manufacturing engineer for a laser (then) so complex, it required a PhD to solve problems to get units out the door. The product was a ring laser. What that means is that the laser bea…

I'm not in as prestigious a line of work as you are but I've found the exact same thing happens in my industry (web development, mostly).

Everyone wants to think of the cool ideas to make things work, but few people want to think of all the ways those ideas can break, fail, fail to be future-proof, be expensive, etc, etc whereas I relish in it; what's more satisfying than helping make a proposed or existing solution even better?

But the same applies to stuff outside of work, too. I find I'm quite negative about stuff in the exact same way and whilst it's fun to think "how could we fix this, how could we make it better", all people see it as is negativity and social pressure has made me start to rethink this approach in life. It's better to keep your mouth shut and let the fire start than to open your mouth and be negative, as per your analogy.

Hell it even applies to traditionalism; "we should put out that fire" "but that fire's always been there, that's the way it's always been" "but it's a fire!!!" "yeah, well it was here before you and we like it. That fire walked uphill both ways through the snow to get to school".

Re: Normalization of Deviance (2015)

#228
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh man, this one hurts to read a little bit. It's crazy how people cooperating poorly can eat up that much working effort.

Reminds me of that giant pager outage ~ 20 years back. I remember one of the stories mentioned a woman who was going to leave her husband because he wasn't answering her page.

Well that's just abusive, really (to threaten to leave someone for not being in minute by minute contact with them/clear signs of an abuser power tripping).
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