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Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

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Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s profit margin is higher than most of automakers. So no, EVs made by traditional automakers are not cheaper. If anything that means Tesla’s cars are more desirable because they can command a premium. Faster? What is that supposed to mean? Tesla is the largest EV maker by volume (not sure if I miss any Chinese ones). Substantial better build quality? Define substantial. Who decide that? Certainly not the consum…

It's easy to goose profit margins when you don't use automotive grade parts and skip quality control. Consumer Reports stopped recommending Teslas because of the abysmal quality of their vehicles. And every Tesla owner I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last.

This is just complete nonsense. Go look at the tear-downs of Tesla where actual engineers with automotive analyses each part. The reality is Tesla is ahead in a whole number of areas and have better quality in many areas.

Tesla have top ranks in safety, the best most performant interior board computer, their glass roofs are pretty amazing, their internal heating/cooling system is the best in the industry by far. The reliability of their engines and battery packs is actually extremely good. Their structural engineering with their castings is ahead of anybody in the industry. The Model S is literally the fastest production car in the world. They have the largest global fast charging system and the single best integration of cars and charging.

If Tesla gets criticized for quality control most of the times its fit and finish something a lot of people don't actually car that much about. The majority of Tesla cars are produced in China and those cars have an excellent reputation for quality.

> I personally know has said their first Tesla will also be their last.

Tesla has the highest consumer satisfaction ratio and the highest costumer retention ratio in the industry.

But I'm sure your personal experience is what is most important in this discussion.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are very valid reasons why no ariframe manufacturer is building its own engines and vice versa. And having a civilian suoersonic turbofan engine nobody needs or wants doesn't get a comoany anywhere.

Honda builds both the engines and airframes for the HondaJet.

That's a niche product.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#223
post #100
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, but to play devil's advocate, what if I changed your comment to: Agreed. I know nothing about automotive engineering or car design, but the hype around Tesla always puzzled me. If this start up can all of a sudden make an economical electric car, then surely the existing automotive manufacturers could do it quicker and cheaper. Toyota, Mercedes, Ford, etc... already have existing designs from decade…

Unpopular opinion but wasn't Tesla subsidised and missed the cost goals anyway? My impression is that Tesla succeeded thanks to Musks personality that made the customers forgive unfulfilled promises that they paid thousands of dollars for. Almost as if Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos imitated Musk instead of Steve Jobs and kicked the can down the road and delivered traditional but improved blood test machines and kept p…

The narrative about Musk being some genius exploiter of subsidies playing 4D chess with all kinds of financial and marketing trickery is total nonsense if you actually look into it.

In terms of subsidies, Tesla wasn't actually subsidies that much. The received a 400M loan from the DoD for advanced vehicle manufacture. At that point however, even without the DoD they could have raised that money. Tesla payed that lone back early and with interest. DoD also gave much larger loans to GM and Ford, neither have fully paid back their loan yet.

The tax subsidies only started years later and Tesla profited from the 7500k tax credit. However this was limited to 250k vehicles and Tesla blew threw that very fast and have since operated without a tax credit and had to compete against vehicles coming in from all the global car companies that all got this tax credit. GM also used that tax credit. So did Tesla get a subsidy that helped them, I would say yes but this was open to all car companies and a number of them took advantage of it.

Tesla also gets the same tax reductions as any large company that makes large investments in particular regions.

> My impression is that Tesla succeeded thanks to Musks personality that made the customers forgive unfulfilled promises that they paid thousands of dollars for.

Not sure what this is based off. You don't build a company the size of Tesla based on forgiving costumers.

Yes, sure some costumers waited a while for their model 3 because of production issues, but this isn't really unique to Tesla. Car production often gets delayed. And costumers did not 'forgive' this universally, many canceled their order and bought something else.

But here is the thing, the demand for Tesla electric cars was so high that it didn't matter.

Tesla was successful because they had a product that a huge amount of people desperately wanted, and after some initial delay they got it to those costumers in very large numbers with very good unit margin.

In fact, Tesla often increased the spec of the delivered product compared to the one that was initially ordered.

And the money from reservation undelivered vehicle and FSD is certainty not why Tesla is successful.

Tesla is successful because they sell a 1 million+ vehicles a year with an automotive margin of 30%.

> I mean, Tesla still delivered stuff that people value. Just not the promised ones.

Can you explain what you mean? What did they not deliver on?

Some people (a minority of costumers) didn't get the FSD but that certainly not most costumers.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did include SpaceX as well, and I'm not sure one can find a better example than that, but there are others as well: - Cruise + other self driving car companies (obv also a bunch of software, maybe even software focused, but looking at Waymo, they developed all their own hardware, LIDAR tech etc.) - Commonwealth Fusion + a bunch of other fusion startups (obv they haven't really gotten to a product yet one could argu…

SpaceX, yes. But I think some of these other examples work against your point. Yes, some of them have raised lots of money (or even sold for lots of money), but revenue for Cruise + Commonwealth Fusion + Heart combined (I haven't heard of Canvas) is about $0 so far. It's yet to be seen if any are viable businesses even if they have already invented cool shit. To your point above, Boeing is not in the venture capital…

I mostly agree with you. I think Heart will manage it, doing an short range electric plane is not comparable to a supersonic jet liner. And the short range electric plane has a pretty clear market fit and very little technology risk unlike the supersonic jet.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#225

At this point I'm convinced the only way industry can actually produce something game-changing is if the government spends a huge amount of R&D on it first. On the other hand, scrappy SaaS startup could parse your logs and send alerts for cheaper, yes.

I think you are underestimating the interplay between industry and government.

Government come in and sometimes push forward the technology industry already has, mostly by just given those industries more investment money.

But industry still invests gigantic amount of money to push technology forward and those innovations are constantly and consistently changing the game.

Government invests something in X and then for the next 100 years people in forum can say 'see this only happened because of X'. But that ignores a lot of the work before and after to actually make it game changing.

And what we also need to consider is that very often that huge government investment fails and goes nowhere. And at the same time large private investment can also fail.

To conclude from this no private investment can ever be game-changing doesn't really follow.

Starlink is a recent example that is pretty game-changing. Government didn't invest in it directly. Sure in the last 100s government invest in rocketry and electronics and antennas but so did private industry at a much larger overall rate (outside of rocketry).

So I think, at the end of the day, government will always have its fingers in almost every pie and will always talk about their success and never talk about their failures. If Boom isn't successful, well you can't innovate without the government. If Boom is successful, well Boom profited from government investment in supersonic military technology so they couldn't have done it without government.

So these kinds of arguments all circle in on themselves. At the end of the day, if you invest lots of money in something game-changing most of the time its gone go to shit, no matter who does it.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#226
I think we will have supersonic planes, but they will be electric.

But to get there we first need normal conservative electric planes to make electric planes more normal. Battery have to be getting better for this to happen but I think we will get there, some people overestimate how large battery improvements we need by basically thinking they need to match chat fuel.

If you look at how far the currently in development electric plans can go you can see lots of improvements that can be made to increase that range considerably.

You can also build your air-frame out of batteries. The batteries themselves need to become structural members in the air-frame. Some manufactures are doing that already for cars but for plans it will be even more important.

Things like using a PRANDTL Wing and prop blade would make a large difference for example.

See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCwtcDNB15E

It of course makes sense for startups like Heart Aerospace not to try these things but I think eventually people will. Electric planes will be so operational efficient that there will be huge demand to increase the range.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#227
post #12
post #7

My understanding is that the only profitable part of being a modern commercial jet engine manufacturer is service contracts - on actually-in-service jet engines. Vs. Boom Supersonic has never built a plane which actually managed to take off. And even their 1/3-scale "technology demonstrator" plane is 5+ years behind its original schedule. (And has yet to taxi along a runway, if I read Wikipedia right.) My guess - Boo…

mmm, yes, the 'legacy business model' of demonstrably competent business decisions at the interest of shareholders that produce quantifiable return on investment and further industry growth through innovation strikes again.

Yes I liked that quip too. It's was 'mutually agreed' to which I infer it wasn't.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#228
So what's changed since Concorde?

Concorde didn't fail for technical reasons but AA have put down a deposit for 60. This is limited to Is it just the noise aspect opening more potential routes? But then I would have thought we would be more concerned about noise now than in the 60s making the improvements a wash.

Re: Rolls Royce Ends Boom Supersonic Partnership

#230
post #7

My understanding is that the only profitable part of being a modern commercial jet engine manufacturer is service contracts - on actually-in-service jet engines. Vs. Boom Supersonic has never built a plane which actually managed to take off. And even their 1/3-scale "technology demonstrator" plane is 5+ years behind its original schedule. (And has yet to taxi along a runway, if I read Wikipedia right.) My guess - Boo…

It may be that they DO actually have some talented engineers and some interesting IP (such as a much better engine design) but were hoping to also generate additional revenue or get bought out by a bigger company. The fact that we are also seeing lots of companies come out with smaller turbojet engines (made for retrofitting older small planes that run on regular style ICE engines) makes me wonder if material science…

What are some of these lots of companies working on retrofitting older small planes with turbojet engines? (That seems like a terrible idea all around from a functional standpoint.)
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