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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#221

Post by fshbbdssbbgdd »

svnt wrote: post #32
TheAlchemist wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's probably true ! But in itself, just making on of the best electric cars today would justify a valuation of 1/10 of what Tesla currently have. I still admire Musk and Tesla for having started the electric revolution. But by 2025 (and maybe already are), they will just be one of many electric car manufacturers - somewhere in the middle of the pack.

He did not start it. He did a hostile takeover and revised the history of Tesla so he could be a cofounder.

I’m no expert on Tesla’s history, but I’m sure it was private back then, and hostile takeovers of private companies are not really a thing.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#222

Post by BluSyn »

01100011 wrote: post #18
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Isn't Tesla supposed to be producing Optimus, their human-like android, next year? Elon has been over-promising(i.e. flat out lying) about self-driving every year since.. 2014(there's a youtube video compilation of it)? It seems like his strategy is to just come up with increasingly grandiose promises every year when he fails to deliver on his past promises. He's trapped in his swirling vortex of bullshit. Very worry…

I don't recall Tesla ever saying they were producing Optimus as a product any time soon. He's said prototype demo later this year. A prototype is very far from a finished product. As a product businesses/consumers can buy, at least 5+ years from now.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#223

Post by pbreit »

codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

"Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it"

Both clauses seem wrong.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#224

Post by rafaelero »

ShamelessC wrote: post #210
rafaelero wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not aware of any autoregressive transformer model that doesn't follow scaling laws. Tesla only needs to tokenize actions and images and voi la, self-driving capabilities. The problem, of course, is how you deploy such a big model so every car can run it locally.

Scaling parameter count requires a similar increase in the amount of (accurate, labeled) data. This can be mitigated by “bootstrapping” techniques that make labeling new data easier, but is still likely the bottleneck for training such a model effectively (assuming they can probably spin up a supercomputer to scale their models otherwise).

You are correct. A Masked Language Model architecture would work very well here. Train it on labeled data and then bidirectionally infer missed spots.

That's fun. We should join their AI team.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#225

Post by pcbro141 »

jacobjr23 wrote: post #110
cheeselip420 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol - FSD is a scam, and the reckoning is here.

I don't think it's a scam, it's just a really hard problem that will take years or decades longer than originally promised.

It’s a scam when you’re taking people’s money for it and it doesn’t exist and keep extending the release date.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#226

Post by trixie_ »

nixass wrote: post #216
trixie_ wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Because autopilot works pretty well for me already. I have it on way more than I have it off. Long roads with lots of stop lights, and 6 hour drives no longer bother me.

I too have adaptive cruise control in my car. It just doesn't have fancy name like Tesla's, but does the job same or better than Tesla

Which one is it? I'd love to compare.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#227

Post by rsynnott »

iainmerrick wrote: post #197
rsynnott wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit of an oddity of US urban planning. The US has maybe 10 big to very big cities, where people can get around on foot, and then a host of what are called cities in the US but are essentially just collections of shopping centres, office parks, industrial estates, vaguely near each other. It doesn't work like that in most countries; small cities and towns are navigable on foot and public transport.

Public transport often means buses, though, so self-driving AI is still very relevant there. If you could replace double-decker buses that arrive every 15–30 minutes with self-driving minibuses that arrive every 3–5 minutes, that would be great! (for everyone except the bus drivers who lose their jobs)

Typically in cities the biggest constraint on bus frequency is bus congestion at bus stops (and to a lesser extent congestion in bus lanes), not number of buses. To the point where banning cash on buses can meaningfully increase system throughput, as it decreases lag time at bus stops. This can be alleviated with planning where people have to transfer to get anywhere (moving buses out of chokepoints) but in practice people don't like that.

Actually, I suspect this makes self-driving a particularly _bad_ solution for city buses; getting into the bus stops takes some manoeuvring, particularly when there are other buses there.

One place that self-driving buses could be interesting (and indeed there are already a couple of systems like this) is on fully/near-fully segregated lines, where they don't have to deal with human-operated traffic. Another would be small towns, but you're looking at full magic level 5 at that point.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#228

Post by Animats »

ryantgtg wrote: post #211
Animats wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo and Cruise routinely have driverless cars on city streets. In California, all collisions, however minor, have to be reported, and DMV posts them on their web site.[1] Most are very minor. Here's a more serious one from last month: " A Cruise autonomous vehicle ("Cruise AV") operating in driverless autonomous mode, was traveling eastbound on Geary Boulevard toward the intersection with Spruce Street. As it appro…

> In California, all collisions, however minor, have to be reported. Just to be clear, this statement only applies to AVs, right?

Yes.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#229

Post by rafaelero »

password321 wrote: post #84
rafaelero wrote: post #35

It's fun to see everybody succumbing to scaling laws. We will only have FSD when we can run realtime inference with a huge model. No amount of creativity seems to overcome the fact that bigger is better. So, let's wait Moore's law do its job.

Well look at this guy. Maybe you should take charge as the new director of AI seen as you figured it out.

Thanks, such an honor.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#230

Post by dreamcompiler »

ifaxmycodetok8s wrote: post #139
dreamcompiler wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

> focus on their incredible cars They have terrible manufacturing quality. The screens melt in Arizona heat. Maybe the ride is cool and feels good, but the car itself is not incredible.

I've put a lot of miles on my ModelY in Phoenix in the summer. Phoenix in the summer is not my idea of fun, but the screen (and the rest of the car) worked fine.
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