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Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

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Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#221
post #24

A very high LVT is a politically unserious proposition, because it would involve drastically raising taxes on the people who actually vote & hold political power in society- the middle class, upper middle class, and wealthy in suburbs and low-density urban areas. All of the alleged 'efficiency' gains you hear Georgists claim really mean 'middle class homeowners forced to sell their single family home to developers du…

What's a "very high LVT"?

Estonia has an LVT of 0.1—2.5%.

https://www.emta.ee/en/private-client/taxes-and-payment/othe...

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#222
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>your equal share of land value what's an equal share? land is not fungible.

Land isn't, but land value (in dollars) is

dollar value is only one part of valuation.

a ranch somewhere vs a shoebox in the middle of manhattan quite likely will not be considered "equal" by prospective owners, even if the dollar valuation is exactly the same.

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#223
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The absence of the State as we know it isn’t the absence of private property. Yes it is. Any attempt to enforce private property ownership itself entails the attempted creation of a monopoly of violence in respect to that land - also known as "a state". > try something more akin to a cross between Europe in the Middle Ages and drug cartels Both feudal lordships and drug cartels (well, the ones that are actually wor…

That’s a very expansive view of a state. So in that case would a drug cartel that excludes the government from enforcing its sovereignty over a piece of land be recognizable as a state? I won’t argue, but I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest to you that maybe while a fiefdom could in modern parlance be considered a “state” if it were large enough or managed to make it into the present day with internationally re…

> So in that case would a drug cartel that excludes the government from enforcing its sovereignty over a piece of land be recognizable as a state?

It ain't a matter of recognizability. It's a matter of function and action - and in both of those senses, a drug cartel is a state.

> not all fiefdoms were states

All landed fiefdoms entailed a monopoly on violence over their geographic territories a.k.a. land, be it directly (by raising their own armies) or indirectly (by relying on a superior lord to whom they swore fealty). All such fiefdoms were either states outright or parts of larger states. You're literally the first person I've encountered who claims otherwise - and I've met a lot of people with very diverse perspectives on European medieval history.

> Well you dropped the due process provision I put in there.

Because it's irrelevant. That the State has constrained its own powers to revoke land deeds does not change the rather basic fact that private ownership of land is fundamentally derived from and dependent upon the state and its monopoly on violence.

You still haven't answered my question: in the absence of the state, who enforces your piece of paper claiming some portion of land to be yours? By what obligation do I have to respect it?

> there isn’t a step where the State steps in and says “I approve this transfer”.

There are actually many such steps. At the bare minimum, the local courthouse usually needs to sign and notarize the new deed. There's also typically a rather hefty stack of documents for (among other things) various state and local requirements.

> Maybe it was originally a State grant, but the State forfeited it’s rights with the transfer.

No, the State pinky-promised that it wouldn't revoke the privilege of land "ownership" except under certain conditions. Laws can and do change.

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> LVT + UBI would accomplish the same thing (and then some) more fairly and efficiently; UBI would subsidize the LVT for your primary residence, while secondary residences (and residences owned by corporations and other non-residents) would see no such benefit. Sure that could work, but it looks like 5x the complexity and political will required. Also, I'm not fully sold on UBI, because I haven't heard a convincing a…

> Sure that could work, but it looks like 5x the complexity and political will required. I can't speak to the political will, but in terms of complexity the inverse is true: a universally-applicable LVT and universally-applicable UBI is far less complex for everyone involved than trying to navigate a bunch of ad hoc taxes and exemptions. > Also, I'm not fully sold on UBI, because I haven't heard a convincing argument…

Apologies for the delay, I missed this somehow.

> I can't speak to the political will, but in terms of complexity the inverse is true: a universally-applicable LVT and universally-applicable UBI is far less complex for everyone involved than trying to navigate a bunch of ad hoc taxes and exemptions.

OK, so I agree that from nothing they would be simpler setups. What I mean to state is that right now, given the current world we live in, changing existing tax rates is easier than introducing and feeling out two entirely new concepts.

> It leads to inflation when > >1. it's funded through government moneyprinting instead of a solid tax system, and/or > >2. it gets captured by landlords who jack up rents in response to the new demand > > LVT rather explicitly and directly fixes both of these problems; it provides a maximally-fair and maximally-efficient tax revenue, and it feeds land value increases back into the tax revenue (and therefore UBI disbursements) instead of letting landlords capture it. It's a self-balancing system with no room for inflation to happen (at least not through either LVT or UBI).

It's not that I'm against LVT or don't think it could be good. My point is that attempting to add LVT and/or UBI are just not practical. They may be theoretically great, but there are other options on the table.

> Which is yet another thing which LVT explicitly and directly addresses. Specifically: > The behaviors we want to disincentivize are land speculation and rentseeking. LVT is the most direct disincentive to both, and we Georgists ain't exactly shy about that being the key reason why we believe LVT to be necessary for a free and equitable society; the economic properties are just a nice bonus :)

I agree! I just think that LVT is a bigger lift than "just" raising taxes on the behavior we want to disincentivize specifically.

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#225
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could have just as easily said the higher population density property had a lower LVT as it’s an arbitrary choice. Perhaps the higher population density is in the worse school district as the better one. Hell the district boundaries my have changed last week specifically to shift the burden to a different school district. So sure, it’s of course possible for properties next to each other to have significantly diffe…

> nothing says the higher density one must have a higher or lower value Local population (incl. the density thereof) is arguably the driver of value, moreso than any other factor besides sheer size and maybe location (in exceptional cases, e.g. adjacent to a coastline). If you could build a store or a restaurant anywhere, then all else being equal, would you build it where there are 10,000 potential customers within…

That breaks down when your dealing with properties next to each other. The surrounding area can easily dwarf the difference a single property makes here.

Assuming all things where equal the lower population density one might be assessed at a higher LTV because it’s next to a higher population density and the higher population density one would be assessed lower because it’s next to a low population density one.

But the actual effect depends on many factors, being next to poor people generally lowers property values etc.

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#226
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>But of course destroying wetlands to build your house was entirely reasonable. * No. I didn't build it, I bought it already built, and no wetlands were damaged, it's 100' away, and thev'e got strict measures in this town. And if you think that a single family home outside the buffer zone has the same impact as 300 units in five buildings built ON the wetlands has the same impact, that's ummm, some next-level ignora…

That's a lot of words. All I hear is "let them eat cake". The FACT of the matter is that people who can't afford housing don't care about any of that.

>>don't care about any of that

Right. You DGAF about anything past the end of your own nose, and don't really want to do the work of solving problems, you just want to have your tantrums.

Saying "I want it, other people have it, so take it from them and give it to me" will not lead to a solution.

What leads to solutions is figuring out the ACTUAL problems, and then finding solutions that work in that space.

You say "can't afford housing until they are 45" - I bought my first house at 47, 40+ miles from the nearest metropolis, and I'm not whinging about it. Before that, I rented a similar distance away, and/in the city. Yes, commuting sucks, and so does city life. But I'm not all about taking stuff from other people to give it to me.

Where are you living now? What is so bad about it?

Have you ever actually read on the issue, attended a town meeting, voted in a local election, worked on a board? If you haven't, you're just another statistic of a young person who wants everything and does nothing. At least the guy in the article is actually thinking about the problem and trying to find a solution that isn't something a 5-year-old would spout.

I can also guarantee that if you got what you wanted, within a decade you would be yelling even louder to recreate what already exists - I've watched it happen.

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#227
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>But of course destroying wetlands to build your house was entirely reasonable. * No. I didn't build it, I bought it already built, and no wetlands were damaged, it's 100' away, and thev'e got strict measures in this town. And if you think that a single family home outside the buffer zone has the same impact as 300 units in five buildings built ON the wetlands has the same impact, that's ummm, some next-level ignora…

It's really unfortunate that we had 140 years to get this into law but that we only ever care about it when it becomes an issue, and once it becomes an issue it's so entrenched we can't do anything about it. With that said, there are net-neutral transition strategies. One of them is for the government to simply give all land owners money equal to the value of their land, but that might create inflation. Another might…

Good thoughts.

>>government to simply give all land owners money equal to the value of their land That is already in place - it's called eminent domain, and a SCOTUS case decided that it CAN be used for private development and not only for public works like roads. So, yes, govt could literally do a forced purchase of entire neighborhoods, and they would be required to pay current values, and then rebuild it at whatever density they want.

The other thing that could actually reduce complaints is to actually compensate the owners for loss of value. E.g., if single-family tracts have a value of $100 due to quality of living (wildlife, low traffic, open spaces, etc), and someone wants to put up massive apartment units in the middle, eliminating wildlife habitat, increasing traffic and consuming the open space, that will make the single-family unit's value decline to maybe $50 right next door, and $70 500 yards away, $90 1000 yds away, and $95 between the location and the major highway. Pay them the $50/$30/$10/$5 loss of their value, maybe in tranches when the project is approved, built, occupied. It can come out of some combination of the developer's or the town's budget.

That sort of appropriate compensation would go a long way towards reducing opposition.

What the tantrum-people ignore is that they want to live in the nice places, but giving them what they want is literally doing to destroy the very thing they want.

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can you point out the timestamp 45:03 > right past the simple solutions and right to the hard-to-understand, change-the-paradigm solution Rich Hickey's 'Simple made Easy' talk[0](don't need to watch this, but I figure most on HN have already seen this) goes into this, and I would argue that the 'simple' solutions that you mention are complected, whereas the LVT really truly is 'simple'. Simple does not mean easy. I…

> 45:03 The host mentions "ban second ownership" and a "vacant lot tax", and "ban corporate buying of homes", neither of which are what I'm discussing (increasing existing capital tax rates). These are the worst ways to represent the question of "should taxes be higher on rent seeking behavior". She goes on to state that she "doesn't have patience for solutions that aren't going to help". It's a terrible shallow dism…

> kind of tax, versus increasing a percentage that already exists

I mean, most places currently have a Land Value Tax, it's just included within the Property Tax that we pay. Conceptually all we are looking to do is raise this percentage and lower the building percentage. This has been done already in Pennsylvania[0]. We're just looking to continue this process. You can do it all at once, and that would be better, but I think most LVT advocates are fine with phasing it in, and trying to find out the best way to phase it in.

Once we get that change then we can look to change other things, and the podcast rightfully points out that in places like Texas that has no income tax and has a property tax, if they went to a LVT system they would start to out-produce the rest of the country. Other states and cities would then quickly try to catch up.

> We can tax the purchase, ongoing renting and time of sale.

If we move to just ongoing renting, that's all you need. And that's a Land Value Tax. See the annuity point below.

> if we get price growth due to lack of sellers, this will encourage builders to build.

When you have an elastic good and the supply of it goes down, the price goes up. We get price increases BECAUSE there is less supply. This is not a contradiction. Builders will not build more when you discourage trading. Liquid goods are worth more.

> LVT is that it is not direct enough. If you want to reduce demand for homes, remove the people buying 2-5 from the market

The LVT directly taxes the misuse of land at a just rate. We don't want to remove the demand for homes, we want to remove speculation. We want to make it unprofitable to waste land. We want the supply of homes to meet demand. We want people to be forced to pay to the community for being a NIMBY, and we want the community to be able to take those funds and build elsewhere to be able to meet demand.

Under a LVT, we want and like landlords. Landlords who need to compete on the quality of the homes that they have, that have to compete on the quality of services that they give, that's what we want. The issue now is that they are fat bloodsuckers who don't have to do those things because as the city grows around them they accrue value for doing nothing. You see this now in how even mobile home land is being bought up and rents are increasing, as brought up in the podcast.

> see if I can square the circle.

When you win the lottery, you can choose to take the lump sum or you can choose to take the monthly check. There is a certain value in how that calculation gets done that we call the capitalization rate. In that same way, anyone at any time can choose to spend their million dollars and get something like a $50k/year annuity.

What the Land Value Tax really is to Georgists is seeing that the combined positive externalities of the city is worth say that $50k/year to the location. So what we want to do is to tax away that $50k. If we don't do this, then through the capitalization of that annuity on the land, the price of the land would be worth 1 million. Once we tax that value however, the land price drops from a million to zero. So in Manhattan(although I suspect Manhattan has higher than $1m land values, adjust accordingly) you would have a $250k house with a $50k/year tax, and in middle of nowhere you would have a $250k house with a $0/year tax.

What economists know is that taxes on elastic goods cause dead-weight losses. Similar to what I mentioned above, when you tax something you get less of it, and that less ends up raising the price. Land is a special case in that it is inelastic, and thus it is the best thing to tax.

When you tax income, that means you get less of it. By reducing the income tax, by reducing the sales tax, by reducing the capital gains tax, the economy will grow. We'll have more outputs. And that growth will then be captured by the land. So what this means is that for every $1 we reduce in other taxes, the value of the land value tax grows by more than $1. This is why we're called 'Single Taxers', and why we need to quickly mention that we are also for carbon taxes and the like. If you take this to its extremes, what you would find is that the vast majority - certainly greater than 90% of the population - would be better off under a LVT world.

[0]: https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2019/3/6/non-glamorous-g...

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#229
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a lot of words. All I hear is "let them eat cake". The FACT of the matter is that people who can't afford housing don't care about any of that.

>>don't care about any of that Right. You DGAF about anything past the end of your own nose, and don't really want to do the work of solving problems, you just want to have your tantrums. Saying "I want it, other people have it, so take it from them and give it to me" will not lead to a solution. What leads to solutions is figuring out the ACTUAL problems, and then finding solutions that work in that space. You say "…

> Saying "I want it, other people have it, so take it from them and give it to me" will not lead to a solution.

Says the guy who LITERALLY proposes that he be compensated if dense housing is built on land that he doesn't fucking own because it messes up his morning walk.

I'm not asking for anything free. I'm asking that rightful owners of property be allowed to build on that property that they own without writing a random old man a massive check for ruining his morning walk.

Strategic advice for lurkers:

0. OP is common, and people like this are NEVER going to compromise. You have to crush them with pure electoral force. This is possible.

1. Attend a few meetings and do 1:1s with every seatholder, but don't get too bogged down. Either you have the votes or you don't, and this is an issue where many council people have huge personal financial vested interest. Figure out what they do for a living, any rental income streams they have, and how they got their seat.

2. If you have seats on your side, work with the most senior friendly councilperson to draft a plan of action. They'll know how the local law works and what there are likely votes for. Contrary to parent's cloud yelling, there is no one golden solution. The levers available and the impact those levers will have is highly contextual to your community.

3. If you don't have the seats, focus on flipping seats and crushing NIMBYs. Again, work with a friendly councilperson on a strategy and figure out if there's already organizing happening.

You likely have the votes; the key is turnout. One good strategy is to target renters, who tend to be pro-housing. Be smart and use your skills.

"Does the person who owns this property live there" is the question to ask, and there are many different ways of answering that question. You'll likely need a quiltwork approach, using public property records as your starting point. In many states you can obtain county-level voter rolls for free or for a small fee. Names and addresses.

Then canvas. Don't pitch, listen. Don't try to convince or debate; that's literally doing turnout work for t he other side. Just listen, ask a couple open ended questions, walk away, and at the sidewalk tick "yes" or "no" or "doesn't care". Find your base. Make sure they know how to vote for and make sure they vote.

Only start doing the hard work of convincing people to change their minds if you don't have the votes in your base. The good news is that you likely have the votes in your base. Look at numbers from prior elections. Turnout is low.

4. Likely don't run yourself; find a candidate who is passionate about YIMY and anti-rentier. But also embedded in the community. Churches, school groups, grew up in the area, etc. Well liked. It's possible you're a good candidate, but much more likely that you can find a better candidate who agrees with you on these key issues.

5. Regarding meeting attendance: stuff like "big groups at city council meetings" only works when you have the votes anyways, or when a councilperson doesn't really GAF, which makes it kind of silly. Especially for this issue where there are likely well-formed opinions and financial conflicts of interest. Don't waste your time if the votes aren't there. Until you have a majority of friendly councilpeople, ignore the city council boomer circus. (And it really is a total circus of retired nutjobs many weeks...) Ignore it. Quietly do the work of flipping seats. Turnout in local elections is low; getting even 20% of renters in your community to vote 100% pro-housing is likely enough to flip every at-large and a good number of precincts.

6. This will likely take multiple election cycles, but if you can find one cycle where all the seats you need line up, go all in. Spend money, spend time, don't squander a rare opportunity. Slating can be incredible effective, especially with a really good at-large candidate who can carry multiple precincts on his/her coattails.

This year is an especially good year because of massive rent increases. People are angry. Capitalize.

7. If you think this helpful, thank OP. Without the strange condescension I wouldn't have bothered typing this up.

Re: Redfin Economist says land value tax will fix the economy

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is assuming we can find less polluting ways of moving mass with similar cost benefit to fossil fuels. Also, I am assuming the few billion people in developing countries will be happy to pick up the slack in fossil fuel demand in the event developed countries do find an alternative. The Middle East can pump it out for a few dollars per barrel, I imagine it will be tough to compete with that.

Give people in a free market an incentive, and they'll find a way.

Even assuming people are able to accomplish whatever they want, it would have to be within a certain timeframe. Both of these assumptions are too rosy for me. We play within the boundary conditions of nature, and it seems reasonable to assume some things are impossible or exceedingly improbable.
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