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Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

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221–230 of 269 posts

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's kind of shocking to read the phrase "vibrant food court". If this was the bar before COVID it can only get better.

Read up on Singapore’s hawker centres for an idea of what’s possible with food courts

Those are the result of forced ghettoization of the street vendors. When I was a kid (mid 60s/early 70s) the place was a lot less regimented and there were street vendors everywhere. There was much greater variety of food (and hygiene). Cleaning that up homogenized things — which I want to believe was an accidental side effect, though one can never be sure.

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#223
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, all in construction costs for a typical 40 story high rise divided by number of saleable square feet equate to much higher cost per square feet than the average suburban housing development. I’ve seen very credible figures that indicates it’s at least a 2x multiple even for a barebones apartment building with no amenities at all And that’s before the expensive taxes, permits, etc., that cities charge on top for d…

A 40-story high rise isn't the density we're referring to here, in a discussion of European-style urban living. Obviously one can astronomically inflate the price of any building by stretching it preposterously upwards, thereby requiring exotic materials and building techniques to support its own weight and the increasing winds and seismic concerns. But "dense urban living" doesn't mean "skyscrapers", it can mean fou…

In that case land acquisition costs make it too pricy since attractive downtown plots in a big city like Toronto are easily hundreds of millions per acre. Because they are zoned for 40+ story buildings.

And why would any land owner seek to zone for less than the maximal allowance?

If you mean forced downgrading of the zoning or replacing existing suburbia with mid density developments, or subsidizing mid density as opposed to suburbia, that’s an entirely political conversation since the roadblock is zoning laws and the legislature.

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#224
post #122

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Agree. The place I work had diverse companies in a 'tech park' - Amazon, Google, and many others inside a gated office space, the total population of which could easily surpass 10K. We used to have a common and very vibrant food court, even though each company used to give free cafeteria food, employees used to walk to the common food court for variety - of both people and food. Also, since there was so much traffic…

It's kind of shocking to read the phrase "vibrant food court". If this was the bar before COVID it can only get better.

Palo Alto used to have a funky food court where the downtown Apple store now stands. It had been a supermarket but converted sometime in the 70s. It lasted into the late 80s.

Apart from nostalgia, it’s where Debbi Fields started “Mrs Fields cookies”. Yes, another Palo Alto startup from the 70s.

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have always found that office-heavy areas of a city were pretty lame in comparison to denser residential. It does not seem like a big loss to me. Office centers tend to have some sandwich/salad lunch places that close at 4pm, some stuffy overly corporate happy hour bars, some dry cleaning places, some convenience stores and fast food spots. Dense residential area tend to have the full range of services, more intere…

These characteristics are not true for most large cities. San Francisco for example suffers none of this.

Yeah, I used to work on Market Street and SF is exactly like this.

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#226

This has an impact not just in rents for office buildings but the entire ecosystem of support businesses that sell to workers who come into city centre to work. One example. Small organic food shop, that sold mostly to office workers and has seen a 70% drop in foot traffic. The same thing hits bars, cafes, restaurants, theatres and other venues. Those very things that make living near or in a city interesting for man…

I have always found that office-heavy areas of a city were pretty lame in comparison to denser residential. It does not seem like a big loss to me. Office centers tend to have some sandwich/salad lunch places that close at 4pm, some stuffy overly corporate happy hour bars, some dry cleaning places, some convenience stores and fast food spots. Dense residential area tend to have the full range of services, more intere…

The big issue is how few cities reach sufficient residential density with enough occupancy over a wide enough area to begin creating that vibrant community. A few overpriced apartments towers near the CBD won’t get you there. I’d say the city I live in Perth, Western Australia has completely failed to cross that threshold and the current real estate environment is basically actively pushing back to prevent the urban core from ever getting there.

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#227

I’m a believer in reversion to the mean, and I think that’s what we will see with the office market and work from home. The technology to work from home existed before the pandemic. Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? We didn’t suddenly discover a new technology here. The use of that technology was precipitated by a transient force, and when that force is removed completely, things will re…

> Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? We didn’t suddenly discover a new technology here. The use of that technology was precipitated by a transient force, and when that force is removed completely, things will return to the previous equilibrium. Not necessarily. It's entirely possible that working from home has always been better but that there was enough friction preventing a move in that…

A lot of companies/managers couldn't conceive of how to run a business remotely before the pandemic. There were a few that were doing it, but lots of people had beliefs that caused them to not be able to see how it was possible. Due to the pandemic everyone had to experience how to do it, so the business world got a management crash-course in it. That dropped a whole lot of mental barriers.

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#228
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Residential neighborhoods don’t have the same peak density. In central business districts every street has shops, in residential ones it wouldn’t be sustainable.

Much of the world proves this assumption false. See, e.g.: - Residential districts in China and many former Soviet countries. Big concrete blocks, with the bottom floor lined with small stores. They're absolutely delightful places to live. - Urban residential districts in the US aren't quite in this style, but a city like Cambridge will have small shops within walking distances of virtually all housing. The critical…

I live in a rural/suburban town of a few thousand. There's a tiny "downtown" thing branching off the highway with a deli, convenience store, pizza place, and some other small stores. Whole town is only designed for cars besides some sidewalks in this downtown area, but you can bike around just fine if you're fit enough for hills or have an ebike. I have a single family home that's about a 10 minute bike ride from this downtown. Almost all homes are single family, and a lot of farms. I think this setup works great.

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweet ass apartments in office buildings I hope.

Will people still want to live in cities as much if you can work from home?

I’d expect people to still want to live in cities with a decent cultural offer. I’d be more worried about what will happen to places like the dormitory district that is London outside of zone 2. Why would one want to live in Brentford when they won’t need to catch a train to Waterloo every morning?

Re: Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have always found that office-heavy areas of a city were pretty lame in comparison to denser residential. It does not seem like a big loss to me. Office centers tend to have some sandwich/salad lunch places that close at 4pm, some stuffy overly corporate happy hour bars, some dry cleaning places, some convenience stores and fast food spots. Dense residential area tend to have the full range of services, more intere…

Time to retrofit some of these office buildings into apartment complexes.

> Time to retrofit some of these office buildings into apartment complexes.

But why would people want to live where they don't want to work?

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