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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

221–230 of 774 posts

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#221
post #55

I don't think we need the latest Cloud/AI/ML/Crypto/Web3.0 bullshit to spin up fuckedcompany.com again. I remember thinking in ~2015 going to conferences that this shit was never going to last. Then around 2018 driving (sitting) on 101 listening to advertisements for "C3 IoT AI" on NPR thinking, could a company jam more meaningless buzzwords into a single company name? For shits, looked up their stock just and its do…

Any time I ask on some financial forum about moving a chunk of investments to cash I get told that would be stupid, don't try to time the market, and just keep buying. I would have saved myself a bunch of losses if I had done it when I was thinking about it.

> I would have saved myself a bunch of losses if I had done it when I was thinking about it.

Or, alternatively, you might have cashed out when you thought you should, then completely missed the bottom trying to time it, then sat on cash for years, watching it lose value to inflation anyway.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#222
post #21

People said this was the "best time ever to get funding" for a startup. I disagree. In my view, it was the best time ever if you played a particular game and had the right connections. I pitched an idea to a VC, which I had a prototype for, looking for $100k. He liked it but wouldn't fund because I didn't have a solid business plan. Fair enough, I need to find a business partner. But then he told me something about h…

[deleted]

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#223
post #16
post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

the fact that you stopped to ask those questions makes me think that you're at minimum, an above average developer. caring about the business and its fundamentals is important beyond just slinging code.

Why? I work to exchange labor for money. They hired me because I generate more value than they are paying me. The company doesn’t “care” about me. It’s purely transactional.

If I got hit by a bus tomorrow, they would send flowers and “thoughts and prayers” to my wife and have an open req before my body got cold.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

25 for a huge tech company is insane, unless there is reason to expect burgeoning profits. The implication is that if you bought them outright, they are going to generate the present level of profits for 25 years before you pay off your investment. How many tech companies have lasted 25 years? How many will last 25 more? 25 makes sense for a startup with potential for explosive growth, not for an established company.

Lol. Tesla would like a word

>unless there is reason to expect burgeoning profits

>25 makes sense for a startup with potential for explosive growth, not for an established company

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#225

This has been a long time coming. Back in the day, there was an inherent understanding that a stock price is supposed to reflect "the fundamentals" - present value of the company + future earnings. And of course there was some amount of speculation around future earnings, but for the most part companies at least tried to be profitable. But if you look at the share price of like, Tesla - it's completely insane. There…

Tesla made more money last quarter than Ford, GM and Toyota. Toyota made 10x the number of cars as Tesla. Tesla is growing vehicle production 50% YoY, while growing profit even faster (having barely hit economies of scale yet). Tesla has a backlog of orders approaching a year in many regions. Everyone else is losing money on their EVs and can't make them in volume production, can't find the batteries for them, becaus…

Even if that all were true (it's not), Tesla could be the most important and revolutionary car company since Model-T era Ford and _still_ be insanely overvalued. Before their recent stock slide they were worth as much as every other major manufacturer _combined_. Their P/E ratio hovers around 300. Mercedes-Benz hovers around 5.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#226

This has been a long time coming. Back in the day, there was an inherent understanding that a stock price is supposed to reflect "the fundamentals" - present value of the company + future earnings. And of course there was some amount of speculation around future earnings, but for the most part companies at least tried to be profitable. But if you look at the share price of like, Tesla - it's completely insane. There…

Tesla made more money last quarter than Ford, GM and Toyota. Toyota made 10x the number of cars as Tesla. Tesla is growing vehicle production 50% YoY, while growing profit even faster (having barely hit economies of scale yet). Tesla has a backlog of orders approaching a year in many regions. Everyone else is losing money on their EVs and can't make them in volume production, can't find the batteries for them, becaus…

Can you link a source for the Toyota vs Tesla claim? From what I saw on the reports it looks like Toyota had way more revenue and net income. Maybe I'm interpreting it incorrectly

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason for the opacity is obvious, they want you to think the equity is worth more than it is. People constantly assume good faith in these things when they shouldn’t. Obviously number of outstanding shares is a bare minimum, but things like cash reserves and cash flow should also be shared but they don’t want to share that information, often times because it’s not good, they just wasn’t people who believe in the…

> ISO (Incentive Stock Options) are one of the biggest scams of all time and you’re financially illiterate if you value them more than zero. They are carefully designed by venture capitalists to screw employees Given the number of millionaires and billionaires who can credit ISOs for their current wealth, I think that's too broad a statement. At the end of the day, a well-run company that can eventually go public bec…

Survivorship Bias at its finest. You don’t hear about the other 90%+ who got absolutely nothing.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#228
post #7
post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

> Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash.

Who buys a house in cash? You mean literal suitcases of dollar bills?

Or do you just mean something like a bank transfer? What other ways are there to buy something?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#229

I almost got offer from DoorDash, with obviously RSU as one of the compensation. Eventually didn't get the offer because they said I didn't pass leadership interview. Apparently I was interviewing at one level above I thought I was interviewing (the recruiter messed up). Anyway, I accepted an offer from a hedge fund, comparatively similar, but all cash. Now I feel that I am glad I accepted the hedge fund offer. I don…

Since you work at a hedge fund and are getting all cash compensation just put part of your paycheck into some ETFs every month. Someone else recommended the bogleheads forum which is good advice. If you were able to time the market you wouldn't be asking on HN for advice so just assume you can't time it and invest a set amount from every paycheck. You'll miss the bottom but you'll probably come out ahead of any other strategy you'd choose.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure where you are getting those numbers from. Ford had $37b in revenue Q4. Tesla had $16b. Tesla is an impressive company that's managed to finally be profitable. But currently their market cap is higher than all other auto manufacturers combined. > Everyone else is losing money on their EVs and can't make them in volume production, can't find the batteries for them, you do the math. That's the thing, this s…

Earnings, not revenue

What is your definition of earnings? Because Toyota's net income far exceeds Tesla's
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