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Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

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Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#221

Post by saiya-jin »

danaris wrote: post #194
ithkuil wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this! Yeah, this argument about the NATO threat is repeated ad nauseam because it superficially sounds like a reasonable justification: "they just had to defend themselves". But even if that was true, Otto von Bismarck said it well: "Preventive war is like committing suicide out of fear of death". Imagine an alternate universe where Ukraine joins EU and NATO and now russia faces a NATO "wall" on the west. In this alt…

> Are they afraid that one morning NATO will invade Russia? From everything I've heard thus far, Putin is afraid that NATO will prevent him from reconstituting the USSR under him.

Well USSR is as dead as russian soldier somewhere in muddy Ukraine. There were good reasons why it broke down, and those reasons are still present. Its plain simple - nobody sane, moral and free wants to be in pact with russia. Who remains are dictators, bullies and murderers.

Thank god Trump didn't succeed in effectively disbanding Nato. Imagine what Europe would look like now if that happened (as Bolton mentioned in cca 2018).

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#222

Post by jaywalk »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #184
jaywalk wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> yet another strong indication that the invasion was a deliberate Russian aggression planned well in advance. Are there people out there who have doubts about this? Regardless of any opinions on the rationale behind it, it's very clearly something that was planned in advance. I didn't think that was something that was up for debate.

I dont know whether they believe it but I'm fairly sure I've seen people on HN claim that something or other that President Biden did a day or two before the invasion forced Russia to act.

I could be persuaded that something like that could have changed Putin's timing a bit, but the invasion was happening regardless.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#223

Post by gumby »

manuelabeledo wrote: post #164

Only tangential to the article, but does anyone find risky that absolutely critical services depend on one or two foreign private companies? And other than losing money, what would be the consequences of Gazprom pulling out of Germany completely? I’m guessing that Russia just doesn’t have enough economic leverage to do so.

The theory is that if the two countries depend on each other deeply they will avoid disputes that would disrupt that relationship. That hasn’t worked out so well in this case, but has worked well IMHO to break the cycle of warfare in Western Europe over the last 70 years or so, the longest stretch of peace in in that region for over a thousand years or longer. Under a rational actor/game theoretic model that is the most likely outcome.

Russia decided to use the gas as a weapon and germany decided to use its financial structure (I.e. its ties to many other countries) as a weapon back. In the medium and long term I think Russia needs germany more than the other way around.

More broadly: your business is in trouble if it only has a small number of customers or suppliers. That diversity provides resilience. In geopolitical terms, it’s it’s fine to have only overseas suppliers (and even good from a comparative advantage perspective) as long as they aren’t correlated. Germany’s bet (wrong) was that making an oversized commitment on Russia would provide a welcome guarantee to reduce the chance of isolationism, That didn’t work. But Russia made the opposite bet: that the commitment meant they had a stranglehold on Germany. But Germany is too rich and has too many friends for that to be any more than a transient threat.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#224

Post by BenjiWiebe »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #90
lordnacho wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> looked nothing like the ones in the pictures This is surely too high a standard! Did Coke ever give you the satisfaction of the people in the Christmas adverts? Did you get girls after you bought Lynx? Did you score more goals with those Predators?

Sure, not looking exactly like the menu/ads is one thing, that's just marketing for you, but being served a patty in a bare bread bun, missing the cheese, lettuce and other parts of the product you ordered, is an outright scam in legal terms if we're being pedantic. Sure, I get it, having underpaid and overworked people making your food is not a recipe for a great experience, but ultimately I paid in full, the compan…

I've had a lot of fast food burgers in the US but never have I had a bare patty in a bun, unless I specifically asked for it a time or two as a child.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#225

Post by Barrera »

> Russian gas accounted for 55% of Germany's gas imports in 2021 and 40% of its gas imports in the first quarter of 2022, Reuters reported. The country has pledged to end the use of Russian gas by 2024, the Habeck said in a March 25 press release.

Some in this thread have asked how Germany could be so foolish to tie its economic destiny to such a problematic country as Russia.

The answer seems to be "one step at a time." And Germany is not unique.

Take the United States, for example, and its near total dependency on Chinese manufacturing for, well, just about everything. The US offshored manufacturing capacity hand-over-fist. In exchange the US got cheap goods (and low inflation), and continued supremacy of the dollar in world trade and as a reserve asset.

Both of those benefits are looking shakier by the week. Inflation is ripping higher, and the sanctions on Russia have prompted what some observers are calling Bretton Woods III, or a brand new economic order that minimizes the position of the US dollar.

But the worst part of all is the enormous leverage China has over the US. The US can protest human rights violations or even an attack on Taiwan, but any serious action taken against China will visit upon the US the same fate as Germany now faces. The brave threats can not be made good on because of an economic hole dug over the course of a generation or two.

The irony is that if you wind the clock back 25 years or so, this situation is the same in direction (although possibly not in magnitude) as policy makers wanted. Free trade was supposed to make conflicts more difficult because of mutual dependency. And it has worked. Just look at the disconnect between the saber-rattling German/US rhetoric and the tepid German/US actions.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#226

Post by ZeroGravitas »

ohgodplsno wrote: post #102
archerx wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes I wonder if the Greens are actually funded by petrol companies because everything they do seems to benefit them in the end. In Switzerland the Greens are trying to be as dumb as the German ones.

For Germany as a whole I cannot speak, but it is an extremely common thing, yes, whether they know it or not. * Greenpeace Germany has a gas division. They've now split it off and officially only own 5 shares (while being headquartered in the exact same building, by the exact same Greenpeace members): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Planet_Energy * Companies like Total have made use of their enormous war chest to…

I've bought gas from various "green" energy suppliers over the years. Generally, they need to offer it for people that need both, even if their main aim is expanding solar or wind power.

Some, like this example, go a little further and try to mix in hydrogen or biogas to reduce carbon output, or offset the carbon in some way, but even when they didn't, it was still greener than the alternatives on the market and a profitable business advancing their professed agenda.

I wish nuclear fans would apply their ridiculously high standards for what they consider green energy to nuclear as well rather than just sabotage any attempt at advancing renewable energy with snide gotcha arguments.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#227

Post by gumby »

quantum_state wrote: post #158

Where is the rule of law and protection of private property?

It’s a classic fraudulent conveyance case. Normally it would simply work its way through the courts, but due to exigent circumstance and geopolitical circumstance they seized it. But the point of law is the same.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#228

Post by gumby »

recuter wrote: post #39
hugi wrote: post #10

It's nice to see Germany start working towards energy independence. I think it's a crucial factor for both national security and a faster migration to more environmentally friendly energy sources.

Yeah, they got top minds on this. Top. Minds. Nuclear canceled by the Green Party and pre-March went all in on Russian oil and gas.

Nuclear wasn’t cancelled by the greens. And anyway germany imports electricity from France and Czech which was generated by nukes.

Re: Germany has seized control of Gazprom Germania

#230

Post by selfmodruntime »

Gareth321 wrote: post #33
bitL wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10 years too late... It's going to be Eldorado for US companies buying bankrupting German companies for cheap...

Angela Merkel is squarely to blame here. She was warned about he dangers for the 16 years she was chancellor of Germany, and instead of diversifying, doubled down on Russian oil and gas, and ordered the closure of the remaining nuclear plants. So be it. The people voted for her, and apparently Germans in general are rather anti-nuclear.

It's almost like spending half of your life and career under the umbrella of the USSR makes people vulnerable to be influenced by russian forces.
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