More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years • Hacker News Board

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#221

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:31 PM UTC

samarama wrote: post #126

sylens wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it's quite clearly this. Millennials have been out there for nearly a decade yelling on social media about how ridiculous their student loans are. Kids on the precipice of college have started paying attention. Combine that with the restrictions for Covid, and you have a lot of kids who don't think that taking on tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of dollars in debt is worth it for some Zoom classe…

Are student loans really such an issue? 85% of graduates have less than $50,000 in student loans. Paid off over 20 years, that’s really not much. https://www.rclco.com/wp-content/uploads/advisory-student-de... Additionally, those that have much higher loans are usually medical students who make $200,000/year at the entry level.

this times 100x. The problem may seem really bad, but wages are high enough that college grads still earn more than high school grads even after accounting for inflation and student loan debt.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#222

Post by belval » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:31 PM UTC

samarama wrote: post #126

sylens wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it's quite clearly this. Millennials have been out there for nearly a decade yelling on social media about how ridiculous their student loans are. Kids on the precipice of college have started paying attention. Combine that with the restrictions for Covid, and you have a lot of kids who don't think that taking on tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of dollars in debt is worth it for some Zoom classe…

Are student loans really such an issue? 85% of graduates have less than $50,000 in student loans. Paid off over 20 years, that’s really not much. https://www.rclco.com/wp-content/uploads/advisory-student-de... Additionally, those that have much higher loans are usually medical students who make $200,000/year at the entry level.

It's probably my Canadian experience talking, but this sentence:

> 85% of graduates have less than $50,000 in student loans. Paid off over 20 years, that’s really not much.

It is pretty terrifying that you manage to mentally justify going in debt for 20 years over your college education. I understand that given a good job it's easy to pay it back, but I never even borrowed even a tenth of that to complete my engineering degree and I've probably paid my education back several time in taxes to the government.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#223

Post by mmaunder » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:32 PM UTC

Good. It’s a scam. It is a horrifically inefficient knowledge delivery system enabled by predatory loans, with tremendous societal pressure to participate, and a tribal mentality that causes former participants to pressure their kids and friends into making the same mistake they did.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#224

Post by mistrial9 » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:32 PM UTC

9dev wrote: post #154

taylodl wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Things are just going back to the way they used to be: higher education is for the elites. Once upon a time we understood that higher education was important for all and having a well-educated public was good for the Republic. Now that view no longer holds - the politicians have learned that their flim-flam doesn't work as well on a well-educated public and so they've been making cuts to higher education for the…

Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity". It's enough to assume elites were greedy (and/or dense) and didn't consider long-term effects, you don't even need a decades-spanning conspiracy for it. The elites won't be as fine once they realise much of their wealth stems from the rest of the republic, but that seems to be the circle humanity is caught in for eternity.

it is my vague impression from history that in real yet slow-moving crisis, those that are able to command and control high-value resources do in fact continue to thrive while others fail in increasing numbers. This works, until it doesn't, to make a cute phrase, because in dynamic systems, either the system re-stabilizes in a new and different composition, or there is sudden, increased failure.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#225

Post by epistasis » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:32 PM UTC

disambiguation wrote: post #123

epistasis wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm trying to imagine some other cause of death where 3000 over a couple years is regarded as acceptable. I think covid has broken people's brains, because we have gone to war, spent trillions, and sacrificed the lives of thousands of people in the US for about that size of human loss, within recent memory.

Covid is a one time risk. Overtime the average risk of death goes to zero. People's brains were already broken. People are bad at statistical risk. People are afraid of flying despite driving be much more dangerous. https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa-cause-of-death-by-ag... https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_dea... Under the age of 24, vehicle fatalities, suicide, and homicide lead in >3k d…

Yeah, fentanyl is terrible! So are cars, and I spend most of my non-family, non-work time advocating for city planning that will let people who chose so to avoid cars.

That does not lessen the impact of 3000 deaths among people who did not take on that risk.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#226

Post by commandlinefan » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:32 PM UTC

ChicagoDave wrote: post #28

I have 3 college-aged kids and one nearly there. Their universal concern is the cost. It has become prohibitive. Colleges assumed the trend of charging $25k to $50k per year would be sustainable. They were dead wrong, especially given the horrendously predatory loans backed by the government and barred from bankruptcy. If we fix the college financial system, enrollment would likely skyrocket.

> Their universal concern is the cost.

I have a senior in high school right now and although I think you're right - he's concerned about a potential quarter-million dollar tuition bill before this whole thing is over - he's also concerned about the whole selectivity of it all. From the outside looking in, you never know what's important and what's not. He has this feeling (and I'm not sure I can dispute it) that the only degrees that matter are degrees from hyper-selective ivy league schools and if the only school he can get into is Texas Tech, he might as well just give up and go into a trade. I remind him that I went to a no-name school and I'm doing fine but he says "things are different than when you were young", and I'm not 100% sure he's wrong.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#227

Post by paulpauper » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:32 PM UTC

VikingCoder wrote: post #169

bagacrap wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The loans are exactly why the colleges were able to continue jacking up the prices. As with homes, people will pay as much as institutions are willing to loan them. In both cases the currently low interest rates allow the loan principal to be much higher (given that folks calculate cost based on recurring payments). If you remove the student loan system then tuition would become cheaper. However that does unfairly im…

Here's what I don't get - Where the hell is the money _going_? Are Colleges and Universities pocketing the money? Are they publicly traded and distributing dividends? Are they building rockets? I know some of it goes back to financial aid, and some goes to football coaches... But we're talking about so much freaking money, and I just can't visualize where it's going.

A college charging $50k/year does not mean it actually gets $50k/year from said student. The amount paid is often much less than the sticker price.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#228

Post by vorpalhex » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:32 PM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #148

samarama wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are student loans really such an issue? 85% of graduates have less than $50,000 in student loans. Paid off over 20 years, that’s really not much. https://www.rclco.com/wp-content/uploads/advisory-student-de... Additionally, those that have much higher loans are usually medical students who make $200,000/year at the entry level.

A $50,000 loan with a high interest rate is not good AT ALL.

"Below $50,000". And student loans have low rates unless you go private. Of course, who is more likely to need private loans they may not be able to pay? Probably not the trust fund kids.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#229

Post by mywittyname » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:32 PM UTC

ChicagoDave wrote: post #28

I have 3 college-aged kids and one nearly there. Their universal concern is the cost. It has become prohibitive. Colleges assumed the trend of charging $25k to $50k per year would be sustainable. They were dead wrong, especially given the horrendously predatory loans backed by the government and barred from bankruptcy. If we fix the college financial system, enrollment would likely skyrocket.

> If we fix the college financial system, enrollment would likely skyrocket.

Enrollment was at record numbers immediately preceding the pandemic, and this was a trend that held for several years prior as well. Lots of colleges had been expanding their campuses like crazy in the Before Times.

I don't think the pandemic will result in a long-term shift away from this trend. By-and-large, college education remains is a worthwhile expenditure, despite the costs. You even agree, hence why you have three kids in college!

I can appreciate not going to college right now. Classes have been randomly cancelled, there have been lockdowns/classes going remote, professors aren't grading/lecturing at the levels they should be, students are doing the work, etc, etc. But once society reaches some level of normalcy again, I believe enrollment numbers will explode back to record levels.

Plus, cost-conscious students have more options than ever. A lot of community colleges are starting to offer 4 year degrees.

Re: More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years

#230

Post by Z0rr0 » Thu, Jan 13, 2022, 4:33 PM UTC

VikingCoder wrote: post #169

bagacrap wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The loans are exactly why the colleges were able to continue jacking up the prices. As with homes, people will pay as much as institutions are willing to loan them. In both cases the currently low interest rates allow the loan principal to be much higher (given that folks calculate cost based on recurring payments). If you remove the student loan system then tuition would become cheaper. However that does unfairly im…

Here's what I don't get - Where the hell is the money _going_? Are Colleges and Universities pocketing the money? Are they publicly traded and distributing dividends? Are they building rockets? I know some of it goes back to financial aid, and some goes to football coaches... But we're talking about so much freaking money, and I just can't visualize where it's going.

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