Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

Admittedly, I know very little about the economy, let alone the intricacies of the Chinese real estate market. But it seems that this whole situation is just a typical sky is falling media frenzy. I have seen so many stories over my life saying "oh THIS is the domino that will cause China to fall." But China remains a very powerful country, they are led by smart people, and I think these China collapse narratives definitely feel good to read in the West but that's all they are, feel-good pieces.

My layman's understanding is that these companies are going to go bankrupt. The Chinese govt could easily solve the problem by simply bailing them out, but they haven't yet. But I think in the end China will just bail the companies out, and nothing will come of it.

I like you would absolutely admit there is a lot I don't know about China. I would say that that is a complicated enough topic where no person on the planet truly comprehensively understands it.

However if you want to hear what I think is a really well stated case for why China's housing problem is more structural than it might appear on the surface I encourage you to check out this bit regarding how China's local governments utilize property prices via LGFVs to do off balance sheet financing off it's social security system and really it's entire economy. If you find it interesting the whole video and the whole 4 part series is really worth a watch:

Housing Crisis — China's Reckoning (Part 2):

https://youtu.be/EgVXRtq5EIg?t=1045

I recommend you to change it to 2x speed.

The reason Evergrande plays into this is not directly a Lehman like systemtic solvency issue IMO, it's a consumer confidence problem which indirectly leads to solvency issue. Regular Chinese citizens are seeing other regular Chinese citizens who pre paid on Evergrand units losing their shirts. Data already show's that housing demand and prices are already way down from pre Evergrande issues.

I would argue if this translates into failures in the local government land auctions, China is basically instantly in a solvency crisis, which, it can deal with, but which will have major consequences.

I got COVID in January. 2 or 3 days in bed, I was at work the 7th day.

Sorry for your friend.

FWIW I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID, see my other response below.

- Big loans will be transacted in cryptocurrency due to concerns about inflation. This will become more commonplace.

- Large scale ransoms and hacks will continue. Driving fear to take cybersecurity more seriously.

- Distrust in mainstream media outlets will push users to siloed echo chamber platforms. Lower barriers to entry to develop the tech behind the platforms will allow them to grow rapidly.

- The metaverse will not get adoption but the signs of being the future of entertainment will be there.

- A significant breakthrough for brain computer interfaces will be released for gaming. (See Gabe Newell interview) Every big company starts racing to research BCI tech.

- EV startups productionizing for the first time will experience reliability and scalability issues. Tesla’s lead in industry will be apparent but competitors will start closing the gap.

Covid will continue to decimate the workforce, societal awareness of the cruel after-effects begins to take shape in 2022. Life expectancy will fall sharply for the next decade, especially in United States.

Tether will implode at some point, taking Bitcoin down at least 95% for a few weeks or months, it eventually recovers and keeps rising.

A major cyberattack takes down the US power grid for a week in the Summer of 2023 in at least one major US city.

September 11, 2023, coordinated terrorist attacks on power substations disrupt the grid across the United States, millions lose power, and it becomes apparent that many won't have electricity for months, or years, as our supply chain can't make replacement gear fast enough.

Thanksgiving 2023, China takes back Formosa (previously known as Taiwan), and the US, still reeling from supply shortages, will have no choice but to accept this with only loud protests.

2024 - The US dollar loses its global reserve currency status. The standard of living in the United States precipitously falls. A new political party sweeps into power in the fall elections. This party promises to implement ranked choice voting, make lobbyists illegal, fully fund the IRS, and raise income taxes on the rich to their 1950 levels. A one time 33% tax/amnesty is offered to those are willing to bring their assets back into the US, a substantial savings from the new rates.

2025 - Because imports are suddenly expensive, the United States embarks on a reconstruction of its manufacturing sector. Tax incentives are given to small businesses, and there is a strong push to support maker spaces in public libraries.