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Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

reuters.com

221–230 of 408 posts

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The U.S. shouldn't protect investors from the free market? That's the free market at work. Investors are not entitled to be paid. All investments carry risk.

Yes, the CCP changing the rules is “the free market.”

If they're choosing of their own free will to participate in the market, it's a free market. No one said anything about a safe market.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apologies for responding to my own post, but if you do a Google news search for Evergrande the first link that pops up is: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/evergrande-met-todays-bond-... The title on Google News is "Evergrande Met Today's Bond Payment Deadline" but if you click to the article the headline changes to "Evergrande met at least part of today's bond payment deadline". What is going on here?

Caching.

Or A/B title testing that is so very common nowadays.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#223

Speaking of misleading headlines: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/business/evergrande-bond-... https://archive.md/cPsjv "China Evergrande meets a Wednesday payment deadline for two of its bonds." On multiple levels, too. "It was not immediately clear whether it had made payment on the third bond, which matures in 2024, or if all of the investors in the other two bonds had received payment." So basically they MIGHT…

Apologies for responding to my own post, but if you do a Google news search for Evergrande the first link that pops up is: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/evergrande-met-todays-bond-... The title on Google News is "Evergrande Met Today's Bond Payment Deadline" but if you click to the article the headline changes to "Evergrande met at least part of today's bond payment deadline". What is going on here?

Depends if you're a half glass empty or half glass full person, whether 2 out of 3 payments is good or bad.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#224

Who could have ever predicted this? Glad I’ve been building a solid crypto portfolio, looking forward to cashing in the last few years gains to buy some houses on the cheap again after the economy implodes.

You do realize crypto is part of the same speculative bubble?

And before the strawmen start piling up - that doesn't mean all crypto is forever useless, but right now crypto it is absolutely over-invested in relative to liquidity.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#225

Speaking of misleading headlines: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/business/evergrande-bond-... https://archive.md/cPsjv "China Evergrande meets a Wednesday payment deadline for two of its bonds." On multiple levels, too. "It was not immediately clear whether it had made payment on the third bond, which matures in 2024, or if all of the investors in the other two bonds had received payment." So basically they MIGHT…

Some investors have not received Evergrande unit's bond interest due Nov 6, say sources https://www.reuters.com/business/some-evergrande-units-offsh... Evergrande bondholders say they have not received $148m interest payments https://www.ft.com/content/88dcb535-3945-4138-b394-dda82292b... Basically, selective default by Evergrande. Full official default likely very soon, and for most of the Chinese real estate compan…

What are the implications of this?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#226

Can anyone ElI5 what this could potentially mean for the world economy?

The direct exposure in itself is not very high as other posters have noted, however the way the CCP is handling this and general market reaction can have serious impact on confidence and in turn financials markets can react globally .

In combination with high U.S. inflation, slow economic recovery in the aftermath COVID-19, labor shortage/great resignation/ supply chain challenges , there can be potentially large domino effects, however is hard for anyone to say how bad it can become, or will we be lucky.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#227
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No this rule does not apply in the US. The US has printed 20% of all dollars ever existed since 2020. Check the exchange rates with any other currency, EUR, British sterling, Chinese RMB. Did it become cheaper? Of course not. We will always buy USD, because it has as a collateral 8billion lives.

We buy USD because its long term existence is practically guaranteed by the power of its military.

The world buys dollars because it needs them to fulfill oil and other commodity contracts, that are priced in dollars, which are then typically reinvested in US Treasuries by commodity exporters (because why not?).

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/petrodollars.asp

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untol...

If a country wanted to not buy dollars, here's how that would go.

No Dollars: "Hi, we'd like some oil."

Oil Producer: "Great, here's how much that contract is in dollars."

No Dollars: "How much would it be in my local currency?"

Oil Producer: "Well, you see, we don't really quote in other currencies..."

No Dollars: "Fine, I'll find someone who will."

Middle Person: "I heard you're looking to buy oil with Pentali Marcograms?"

No Dollars: "Sure am, what price will you give me?"

Middle Person: "10% over the exchange rate between Pentali Marcograms and US dollars. You know oil producers trade in dollars, right?"

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#228

Who could have ever predicted this? Glad I’ve been building a solid crypto portfolio, looking forward to cashing in the last few years gains to buy some houses on the cheap again after the economy implodes.

hmmm what is bitcoin doing on this news? it's evident crypto is not a hedge against uncertainty or bad news, but rather is highly correlated with the stock market and overall US economy.

Btc hit a new ath today along with eth…

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#229
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They owe 300 billion. So no they couldn't.

This is doable by a large govt. $300 billion is 1/10 of covid aid and related stimulus. The point is that small, strategic payments can stave off much greater systemic damage, which is what a bailout does.

It is hard for any government even not democratically elected ones like CCP to be able to spend $300B tax payer money to bail out creditors of a single private company.

Evergrande is hardly unique or even the largest real estate company in China. There are a lot of large companies in serious debt trouble there now, it will cost the government lot more than $300B to bail out the sector.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#230
post #111

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Is your theory that the US government will run out of dollars? How do you imagine that will happen - a paper shortage?

The entire value of the currency is based on supply and demand, whether the gp is correct in their prediction, increased demand relative to supply is the defining mechanism of how a currency's value would increase.
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